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Sagebrush ecosystem response to climate and disturbance
Sagebrush ecosystem response to climate and disturbance
Sagebrush ecosystems are a major component of landscapes in the Western U.S. and provide vital habitat to sage grouse. However, sagebrush ecosystems have been dramatically impacted by disturbances in the past several decades. This work focuses on understanding the climatic and edaphic controls over sagebrush ecosystems and forecasting how sagebrush ecosystems may change in the future.
Sagebrush ecosystems are a major component of landscapes in the Western U.S. and provide vital habitat to sage grouse. However, sagebrush ecosystems have been dramatically impacted by disturbances in the past several decades. This work focuses on understanding the climatic and edaphic controls over sagebrush ecosystems and forecasting how sagebrush ecosystems may change in the future.
PAST FINDINGS
PAST FINDINGS
Sagebrush depends on winter precipitation: Despite its extremely wide geographic distribution, our work identified that sagebrush exists only in places where soil moisture is reliably recharged during the cool season when evapotranspiration is lower than precipitation. (See Schlaepfer et al 2012 Ecohydrology)
Sagebrush depends on winter precipitation: Despite its extremely wide geographic distribution, our work identified that sagebrush exists only in places where soil moisture is reliably recharged during the cool season when evapotranspiration is lower than precipitation. (See Schlaepfer et al 2012 Ecohydrology)
Sagebrush regeneration is driven by soil water availability: Regeneration is highly episodic and population-limiting for sagebrush. Our work identified key controls over sagebrush regeneration and incorporated that information into a process-based model of sagebrush germination and survival.
Sagebrush regeneration is driven by soil water availability: Regeneration is highly episodic and population-limiting for sagebrush. Our work identified key controls over sagebrush regeneration and incorporated that information into a process-based model of sagebrush germination and survival.
Soil water dynamics drive potential sagebrush migration: Our work linked process-based soil water assessment tools with species distribution models to identify where sagebrush distribution may shift upslope and northward in combing decades.
Soil water dynamics drive potential sagebrush migration: Our work linked process-based soil water assessment tools with species distribution models to identify where sagebrush distribution may shift upslope and northward in combing decades.
Changes in sagebrush vegetation impact water balance. Our work characterized how disturbances that alter the vegetation in sagebrush ecosystems can influence the water yield of these widespread ecosystems and modify the water available to regenerating plants. (See Bradford et al, 2014, Journal of Ecology.)
Changes in sagebrush vegetation impact water balance. Our work characterized how disturbances that alter the vegetation in sagebrush ecosystems can influence the water yield of these widespread ecosystems and modify the water available to regenerating plants. (See Bradford et al, 2014, Journal of Ecology.)
CURRENT PROJECTS
CURRENT PROJECTS
Assessing the future of sagebrush ecosystems - a decision support tool for sage grouse conservation: Building on past findings, this project is describing potential future distribution of sagebrush sub-species as well as potentially important invasive plant species, and quantifying climate change impacts on sagebrush regeneration.
Assessing the future of sagebrush ecosystems - a decision support tool for sage grouse conservation: Building on past findings, this project is describing potential future distribution of sagebrush sub-species as well as potentially important invasive plant species, and quantifying climate change impacts on sagebrush regeneration.
Forecasting sagebrush plant community composition and vegetation structure: This project is applying ecological simulation models to simulate multi-decadal impacts of climate and disturbance regimes on sage grouse habitats.
Forecasting sagebrush plant community composition and vegetation structure: This project is applying ecological simulation models to simulate multi-decadal impacts of climate and disturbance regimes on sage grouse habitats.
Characterizing the distribution and abundance of forb species in sagebrush ecosystems: Forbs play a crucial role in supporting sage grouse populations, yet little is known about their distribution or controls. This project is a range-wide evaluation of forb abundance and assessment of potential responses to climate and disturbance.
Characterizing the distribution and abundance of forb species in sagebrush ecosystems: Forbs play a crucial role in supporting sage grouse populations, yet little is known about their distribution or controls. This project is a range-wide evaluation of forb abundance and assessment of potential responses to climate and disturbance.
FUTURE DIRECTIONS
FUTURE DIRECTIONS
Decision support to maximize restoration success in drylands: sagebrush restoration efforts are often unsuccessful for sagebrush because of drought-induced seedling mortality. This project will integrate results from projects above to build a decision support tool that helps land managers select when to seed or plant sagebrush in order to maximize success.
Decision support to maximize restoration success in drylands: sagebrush restoration efforts are often unsuccessful for sagebrush because of drought-induced seedling mortality. This project will integrate results from projects above to build a decision support tool that helps land managers select when to seed or plant sagebrush in order to maximize success.
Identifying causes and consequences of sagebrush decline at the trailing edge: Evidence suggests that sagebrush is in decline in southern and low-elevation portions of its range, yet specific causes and consequences remain unclear. This project will merge regional spatial analysis with field measurements and ecological modeling to quantify the extent of decline, attribute cause to climatic or disturbance effects, and assess how decline may impacts plant and animal composition and abundance.
Identifying causes and consequences of sagebrush decline at the trailing edge: Evidence suggests that sagebrush is in decline in southern and low-elevation portions of its range, yet specific causes and consequences remain unclear. This project will merge regional spatial analysis with field measurements and ecological modeling to quantify the extent of decline, attribute cause to climatic or disturbance effects, and assess how decline may impacts plant and animal composition and abundance.
Ecohydrology and climate change in drylands
Ecohydrology and climate change in drylands
Climate forecasts in most dryland regions, especially the southwest U.S., call for increasing aridity. Assessing the future of water cycling and impacts on dominant plant species and widespread plant functional types has been identified as an important knowledge gap by land management agencies. Changing climate will alter soil water availability, which exerts dominant control over ecosystem structure and function in water-limited, arid to semiarid ecosystems. In cooperation with collaborators, my work seeks to understand the spatial and temporal patterns of these changes and assess their consequences for drylands.
Climate forecasts in most dryland regions, especially the southwest U.S., call for increasing aridity. Assessing the future of water cycling and impacts on dominant plant species and widespread plant functional types has been identified as an important knowledge gap by land management agencies. Changing climate will alter soil water availability, which exerts dominant control over ecosystem structure and function in water-limited, arid to semiarid ecosystems. In cooperation with collaborators, my work seeks to understand the spatial and temporal patterns of these changes and assess their consequences for drylands.
PAST FINDINGS
PAST FINDINGS
In arid and semiarid climate, soil water defines vegetation: This work has identified that availability of water in the soil is dominated by either pulses of water from individual events or long-term storage of water driven by seasonal climate and shown that these patterns relate to the abundance of plant functional types, including shrubs and grasses.
In arid and semiarid climate, soil water defines vegetation: This work has identified that availability of water in the soil is dominated by either pulses of water from individual events or long-term storage of water driven by seasonal climate and shown that these patterns relate to the abundance of plant functional types, including shrubs and grasses.
CURRENT PROJECTS
CURRENT PROJECTS
Quantifying the impact of changing in climate and climate variability on dryland water balance: This work is assessing how the seasonal and depth patterns of soil water remain (the crucial resources for plants) will respond to changes in climate. In addition we are exploring the ecohydrological consequences of shifts in the magnitude and frequency of severe weather events.
Quantifying the impact of changing in climate and climate variability on dryland water balance: This work is assessing how the seasonal and depth patterns of soil water remain (the crucial resources for plants) will respond to changes in climate. In addition we are exploring the ecohydrological consequences of shifts in the magnitude and frequency of severe weather events.
Incorporating soil moisture into vegetation monitoring in drylands: In cooperation with the National Park service and other DOI agencies, this project is integrating measures of soil water availability and ecosystem water balance into monitoring efforts. Results will provide insight into how the response of vegetation to climate changes will vary across lands managed by DOI.
Incorporating soil moisture into vegetation monitoring in drylands: In cooperation with the National Park service and other DOI agencies, this project is integrating measures of soil water availability and ecosystem water balance into monitoring efforts. Results will provide insight into how the response of vegetation to climate changes will vary across lands managed by DOI.
Understanding the ecohydrology of global drylands: This project is bringing together experts from dryland ecosystems in temperate regions from across the globe to examine water cycling and availability and assess how changes in climate may influence these patterns.
Understanding the ecohydrology of global drylands: This project is bringing together experts from dryland ecosystems in temperate regions from across the globe to examine water cycling and availability and assess how changes in climate may influence these patterns.
FUTURE DIRECTIONS
FUTURE DIRECTIONS
Integrating soil water dynamics with remote sensing to assess landscape-scale vulnerability: Plant species will not be uniform in their responses to climate across DOI administered land, and it is imperative that managers understand where on the landscape plant species are most vulnerable to climate change. This project will address this growing challenge with a landscape-scale approach that relates climate & soil water conditions to a time series of vegetation condition derived from satellite imagery to quantify plant responses.
Integrating soil water dynamics with remote sensing to assess landscape-scale vulnerability: Plant species will not be uniform in their responses to climate across DOI administered land, and it is imperative that managers understand where on the landscape plant species are most vulnerable to climate change. This project will address this growing challenge with a landscape-scale approach that relates climate & soil water conditions to a time series of vegetation condition derived from satellite imagery to quantify plant responses.
Dryland Forest Sustainability
Dryland Forest Sustainability
Forests in the semiarid southwestern U.S. are expected to be highly vulnerable to increasing aridity anticipated with climate change. In particular, low elevation forests and the process of regeneration are likely to be highly susceptible to climate change. This work seeks to characterize how, where and when forest ecosystem will change and identify management strategies to promote resilience.
Forests in the semiarid southwestern U.S. are expected to be highly vulnerable to increasing aridity anticipated with climate change. In particular, low elevation forests and the process of regeneration are likely to be highly susceptible to climate change. This work seeks to characterize how, where and when forest ecosystem will change and identify management strategies to promote resilience.
PAST FINDINGS
PAST FINDINGS
Forest management can promote drought resistance: This research indicated that reducing stocking, an easily manipulated forest structural condition, in vulnerable forest stands may allow remaining individual trees to more effectively survive harsh drought conditions. Results indicate that Resistance and resilience of forests in relation to management
Forest management can promote drought resistance: This research indicated that reducing stocking, an easily manipulated forest structural condition, in vulnerable forest stands may allow remaining individual trees to more effectively survive harsh drought conditions. Results indicate that Resistance and resilience of forests in relation to management
Forest disturbances can alter soil water, potentially playing a role in migration. This work characterized how fire and insect mortality can change the water balance of dryland forests, potentially interacting with climate change to alter water yield and plant competition and composition.
Forest disturbances can alter soil water, potentially playing a role in migration. This work characterized how fire and insect mortality can change the water balance of dryland forests, potentially interacting with climate change to alter water yield and plant competition and composition.
Tree regeneration already suggests potential tree migration: Our regional-scale study indicated that regeneration of many tree species is already shifting upslope and to wetting conditions, setting the stage for future tree distribution changes.
Tree regeneration already suggests potential tree migration: Our regional-scale study indicated that regeneration of many tree species is already shifting upslope and to wetting conditions, setting the stage for future tree distribution changes.
However, many species have nowhere to go: Mountainous terrain has very limited migration options for higher-elevation species. This work quantified that subalpine fir and Engelmann spruce, in particular, have very limited opportunity for migration to maintain climatic suitability, while ponderosa pine has more potentially suitable future locations.
However, many species have nowhere to go: Mountainous terrain has very limited migration options for higher-elevation species. This work quantified that subalpine fir and Engelmann spruce, in particular, have very limited opportunity for migration to maintain climatic suitability, while ponderosa pine has more potentially suitable future locations.
CURRENT & RECENT PROJECTS
CURRENT & RECENT PROJECTS
Identifying forest management strategies that maximize resistance and resilience. Building upon several long-term forest management experiments, this project is identifying characteristics that can help trees sustain growth and avoid mortality despite changing climate and increasing climatic variability.
Identifying forest management strategies that maximize resistance and resilience. Building upon several long-term forest management experiments, this project is identifying characteristics that can help trees sustain growth and avoid mortality despite changing climate and increasing climatic variability.
Quantifying environmental controls over tree germination and seedling survival: This project is assessing how forests may recover from recent widespread mortality events.
Quantifying environmental controls over tree germination and seedling survival: This project is assessing how forests may recover from recent widespread mortality events.
Describing west-wide patterns and controls over tree mortality: This project is teasing apart the individual and combined effects of climate, weather, disease and competition on aspen mortality.
Describing west-wide patterns and controls over tree mortality: This project is teasing apart the individual and combined effects of climate, weather, disease and competition on aspen mortality.
FUTURE DIRECTIONS
FUTURE DIRECTIONS
Describing the episodic nature of dryland tree species regeneration: Most trees in dry environments only rarely achieve successful regeneration because of water availability controls that are only vaguely understood. This project will quantitatively define those controls and estimate their past and potential future frequency, providing insight into future forest sustainability.
Describing the episodic nature of dryland tree species regeneration: Most trees in dry environments only rarely achieve successful regeneration because of water availability controls that are only vaguely understood. This project will quantitatively define those controls and estimate their past and potential future frequency, providing insight into future forest sustainability.
Lower forest ecotones - the key to forest sustainability: This project will assess how lower forest boundaries in dryland ecosystems respond to changing climate and disturbance and assess forest vulnerability and sustainability. Results will provide valuable information for land managers about the future distribution and abundance of forests in the southwest U.S.
Lower forest ecotones - the key to forest sustainability: This project will assess how lower forest boundaries in dryland ecosystems respond to changing climate and disturbance and assess forest vulnerability and sustainability. Results will provide valuable information for land managers about the future distribution and abundance of forests in the southwest U.S.
Quantifying future changes in ecosystem carbon stocks: Shifts in the distribution of forests will impact carbon cycling and storage, potentially providing a feedback to increasing atmospheric CO2. This work will quantify temporal and spatial patterns in future carbon stocks in the western U.S.
Quantifying future changes in ecosystem carbon stocks: Shifts in the distribution of forests will impact carbon cycling and storage, potentially providing a feedback to increasing atmospheric CO2. This work will quantify temporal and spatial patterns in future carbon stocks in the western U.S.
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