Fantasy Football Value Visualized

Introduction

This is a study I believe can be valuable for both seasoned fantasy football players and newcomers alike. It’s an attempt to visualize positional value in fantasy football, and show why, despite quarterbacks being ultra-important in real life, the opposite is often true in fantasy.

The data isn’t completely up to date. It uses Mike Clay’s full-season projections, but it was extracted the day before Aaron Rodgers signed with the Steelers. I considered updating it, but ultimately didn’t think it was necessary. The purpose of this project is more about illustrating the underlying principle, not analyzing the most current rosters. Even with slightly outdated data, I believe the core message still holds.

Here’s how it works:

The X-axis represents Mike Clay’s positional ranking for each player
The Y-axis shows their projected fantasy points per game (PPG)
Each point on the graph corresponds to one player

Quarterbacks

When looking at the chart, there’s a clear elite tier, the top four quarterbacks: Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson. Their order might vary, but any combination of those four is widely accepted as the top tier. And the numbers back it up, there’s just a 0.24 PPG difference between QB1 and QB4 in Mike Clay’s projections. That’s practically nothing.

Then you get a noticeable drop. From QB4 to QB5 (the start of the next tier with guys like Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes), there’s a 2.06 PPG gap, the biggest jump in the entire positional ranking.

From there, the decline is more gradual. It’s about 0.94 PPG from QB6 to QB7, and then the numbers flatten out more. From QB1 to QB7, the difference is 3.47 PPG. Extend that to QB12, the last starting QB in most leagues, and the total difference from QB1 is 4.88 PPG. In contrast, from QB12 to QB24, the spread is only 1.53 PPG.

That’s a lot of numbers, so let’s talk through what it actually means.

The biggest takeaway is that the gap between the elite and the rest is real, and it matters. That’s why those top four QBs go early in drafts, they’re true difference-makers at a onesie position (you only start one QB in most formats). Having one of those guys gives you a weekly edge.

But what’s more interesting is what happens after that tier. The difference between QB5 and QB12 is just 2.59 PPG. And when you realize that the drop from QB4 to QB5 alone is 2.06 PPG, it starts to raise questions. Is it actually worth drafting a "second-tier" QB early? The data suggests maybe not.

In most cases, you’re better off going one of two ways:

Spend up for an elite QB and hope you can fill out other positions later
Wait and stream the position week-to-week, taking value late or playing matchups

There’s not a huge penalty in passing on mid-tier QBs, the gap just isn’t that wide. And in a game where opportunity cost matters, positional value at QB is more top-heavy than it looks on the surface.

Running Backs

Contrary to real life football, in fantasy, running backs might be the most important position. Looking at the chart, we see another top tier of four players but even within that group, the gap is already larger than we saw with quarterbacks, RB1 to RB4 has a 0.94 PPG difference.

From there, the drop to the next tier is only 0.76 PPG, which isn’t massive, but the overall decline from RB1 to RB12 (the RB1s) is 3.94 PPG, nearly identical to the QB1 range.

Where it really gets interesting is beyond RB12. The gap from RB1 to RB24 (end of the RB2s) is 6.76 PPG, and it jumps to 10.47 PPG by RB36. That’s a massive spread, and it highlights just how much more volatile this position is compared to quarterback.

Looking closer at tier-to-tier drops:

RB1 to RB12: 3.94 PPG
RB13 to RB24: 2.64 PPG
RB25 to RB36: 3.41 PPG

In other words, not only is the top-end production more valuable, but the falloff is steeper and faster than it is at QB. You can find usable QBs well into the 20s, but at running back, you’re losing a lot of scoring potential once you’re outside the top 15–20.

This chart reinforces what most experienced fantasy players already know:

If you have a top-tier RB, you have a huge edge.
If you wait too long at the position, you’re fighting uphill all year.

RB production drops off hard, and positional scarcity makes this one of the most punishing spots to miss on.

Wide Receivers

Wide receiver is usually considered the deepest position in fantasy, and this chart backs that up, but with a few key caveats.

At the very top, WR1 is projected for 20.7 PPG, and there’s a sharp drop right away, a 1.76 PPG difference between WR1 and WR2. After that, things level out quickly. From WR2 to WR12, the drop is just 3.65 PPG, bringing the total WR1-WR12 gap to 5.41 PPG, comparable to QBs and RBs, but spread more evenly across the top tier.

What makes wide receiver different is what happens after WR12.

From WR1 to WR24, the gap widens to 7.29 PPG
From WR1 to WR36, it’s 8.59 PPG
And by WR48, the difference from the top is 10.06 PPG

That’s a slow, steady decline, no major cliffs like we saw with RBs, but still meaningful.

Breaking it down by tiers:

WR13 to WR24: 1.70 PPG
WR25 to WR36: 1.24 PPG
WR37 to WR48: 1.47 PPG

This shows that even into the WR3 and WR4 range, you’re still getting fairly usable production. The gap between tiers isn’t massive, and that’s important in a format where you’re starting at least three WRs (and sometimes a fourth in the FLEX). Depth matters here more than top-end dominance.

That said, elite WR1s still give you an edge. The drop from WR1 to WR2 is larger than any top-tier gap at any position in this study. If you land that top guy think, Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, or CeeDee Lamb, you’re starting with a weekly advantage.

But unlike RBs, you don’t fall off a cliff if you miss out early. There’s flexibility here, and that’s part of why wide receiver tends to be a more forgiving position in drafts.

Tight Ends

Tight End is always one of the most top-heavy positions in fantasy football, and this year’s data reflects that perfectly. At the very top, we see a small elite tier of two players, there's actually a slight bump between TE1 and TE2 at just a 0.18 PPG difference, but both are well ahead of the rest of the position.

From TE2 to TE3, there's a 1.94 PPG drop, and that quickly snowballs. The difference between TE1 and TE4 is 3.88 PPG, and by the time we reach TE12 (the end of the “starter” tier in many formats), that gap has widened to 6.18 PPG.

Looking further, from TE1 to TE24, the difference becomes a massive 7.06 PPG. That shows just how brutal this position can be if you don’t land one of the very top guys.

Now looking within tiers:

The drop from TE12 to TE24 (a common streaming zone) is only 1.06 PPG, showing that once you're outside the top 10 or so, most TEs offer a similar low ceiling.
Even from TE6 to TE24, it's just a 1.82 PPG difference. That really supports the strategy of either investing early in an elite TE, or punting the position entirely and streaming based on matchups.

Overall, tight end remains what it’s always been in fantasy, a position with a tiny elite tier, followed by a sea of mediocrity. If you don’t land a top option, your best bet might just be to chase touchdowns and matchups week-to-week.

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