Research
Research
Youssef, J. and Zaki, C. (2023) "On the Determinants and Outcomes of IMF Loans in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Do Politics Matter?", Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Vol. 59, Issue 9.
Marouani, MA., Youssef, J. and Zaki, C. (2023) "Structural Change in Developing Countries: Which Policies Matter?", Revue d’économie du développement, Vol. 31.
Gatti, R. and Youssef, J. (2026) “Macroeconomic Policies in Egypt: Learning from Recurring Cycles to Build Resilience” in Mohieldin, M, Giugale, M. and Ramadan, R. (Eds.) “The Oxford Handbook of the Egyptian Economy”, Oxford University Press.
Gatti, R. and Youssef, J. (2025) "Macroeconomic Policies in Egypt: Learning from Recurring Cycles to Build Resilience", Egypt Economic Development and Policies Working Paper Series.
Youssef, J. and Zaki, C. (2021) “On the Determinants and Outcomes of IMF Loans: A Political Economy Approach”, ERF Working Paper Series No. 1492.
Youssef, J. and Zaki, C. (2019) “Between Stabilization and Allocation in the MENA Region: Are Competition Laws Helping?”, ERF Working Papers Series No. 1319.
Youssef, J. and Zaki, C. (2019) “A Decade of Competition Policy in Arab Countries: A De Jure and De Facto Assessment”, ERF Working Papers Series No. 1301.
"The Macroeconomic Cost of Conflict: A Synthetic Control Analysis for Mali" with Giulio Iacobelli
Preliminary Abstract
This paper estimates the economic cost of Mali’s 2012 conflict–coup–state-collapse episode using the Synthetic Control Method. The synthetic control is constructed from a weighted combination of structurally similar commodity-dependent low-income and lower-middle-income countries that closely replicates Mali’s pre-2012 GDP per capita trajectory. The baseline results show that the estimated gap between actual and counterfactual GDP per capita reaches 7.2 percent in 2012 and widens to 32.5 percent by the end of the post-treatment period in 2024. The short-run effect is statistically significant, and the results are robust to several checks, including changes in donor-pool definitions and predictor specifications. A sectoral extension shows a persistent gap in industrial value added and an initial negative gap in services value added that gradually narrows over the post-treatment period.
"Exchange Rate Competitiveness and Firms Energy Efficiency: The Missing Link"
Preliminary Abstract
This paper examines the role of the exchange rate fluctuations and regimes as a driver of firms’ energy efficiency in developing countries. The paper relies on the World Bank Enterprise Surveys (WBES) firm level data for a large group of developing countries to study a novel issue that is typically analyzed on the aggregate level. The paper also computes a sector-specific real effective exchange rate (REER), introducing a sectoral heterogeneity to the measurement of exchange rate fluctuations. The empirical work relies on a fixed effects model as well as the multilevel mixed effects model for robustness checks. The main findings show that on the country level, overvalued currencies significantly increase firms’ energy intensity. At the sector level, results confirm the same finding: A higher sector specific REER also significantly increases firms’ energy intensity (reduces firms’ energy efficiency). Potential transmission channels include export and productivity effects and resource reallocation. A more flexible exchange rate regime counterintuitively increases firms’ energy intensity (reduces firms’ energy efficiency), possibly through the channel of higher energy prices. Robustness check, using the multilevel mixed effects model, confirms that the baseline results do not change after using a different estimation methodology.
"Streamlining Development into Macroeconomic Conditions: Which Ones Induce Structural Change?"
[Slides]
Preliminary Abstract
This paper aims at studying the role of macroeconomic conditions - fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies as well as business cycle fluctuations - in promoting the within-sector structural change in developing countries. The paper relies on the World Bank Enterprise Surveys firm-level data to compute the within-sector structural change. Afterwards, it investigates the role of macroeconomic conditions in driving structural change using a fixed effects model with clustered standard errors to merge sector-level data with macro data. The fiscal, monetary, and exchange rate policies are accounted for in different ways: tools (the instruments decided by policy makers to achieve certain policy objectives) and outcomes (consequences of the tools and giving an indication on macroeconomic performance). Furthermore, the paper computes some macroeconomic indicators (real effective exchange rate, business cycle fluctuations, fiscal and monetary policies cyclicality measures) at the sector-level using among others input output tables from the EORA database as well as sectoral trade flows data. The empirical findings related to the macroeconomic tools show that high policy rates can undermine structural change. On the macroeconomic outcomes front, a competitive exchange rate and countercyclical macroeconomic policies enhance structural change. Finally, business cycle downturns foster structural change. The robustness checks suggest that the baseline results do not change after using a different estimation methodology (the multilevel mixed effects model) and after controlling for endogeneity.
“Policy Determinants of Structural Change in Developing Countries” with Mohamed Ali Marouani and Chahir Zaki
[Slides]
Preliminary Abstract
This paper analyzes the policy determinants of structural change in developing countries, including structural policies and macroeconomic stabilization ones. To this end, the paper proposes a large set of novel measurements to capture the policies that are likely to influence structural change. These measurements relate to structural policies (antimonopoly policy, financial policy, labor policy, trade policy and macroeconomic institutions) and macroeconomic policies (macroeconomic outcomes and cyclicality). The paper uses the pooled mean group estimator technique to distinguish between the short and long-term impacts of policies on structural change. Furthermore, structural change is measured using different ways (productivity growth decomposition, value-added shares by sector and exports diversification). Results show that the within-sector productivity improvements have been the main driver of productivity growth in only two regions, East Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Furthermore, structural change has been growth reducing in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and Latin America. As per the empirical findings, they show that structural policies improve structural change over the long run, yet their effect is mostly insignificant over the short run. Our results also indicate some deindustrialization trends since structural policies tended to increase the share of services in value added whereas a similar effect on manufacturing could not be found. As per macroeconomic policies, our results highlight the importance of countercyclical fiscal policies and undervalued currencies in inducing structural change.
Al Nashar, S., El-Ashmawy, F., Youssef, J., Bedair, Y., Youssef, H., Audah, M., Kazem, A., Caillaud, F. and Kaddah, F. (2022) “Egypt Economic Monitor: Strengthening Resilience through Fiscal and Education Sector Reforms", World Bank, December.
Al Nashar, S., El-Ashmawy, F., Bedair, Y., Youssef, J., Dunaud, E., Hussain, M. and Alotaibi, F. (2021) “Egypt Economic Monitor: The Far-Reaching Impact of Government Digitalization”, World Bank, December.
Al Nashar, S., El-Ashmawy, F. and Youssef, J. (2020) “Egypt Economic Monitor – From Crisis to Economic Transformation: Unlocking Egypt’s Productivity and Job-Creation Potential”, World Bank, November.
Youssef, H., Alnashar, S., Youssef, J., Elshawarby, A. and Zaki, C. (2019) “Egypt Economic Monitor: From Floating to Thriving - Taking Egypt’s Exports to New Levels”, World Bank, July.
Elbadawi, I., Fallah, B., Youssef, J., Louis, M., Albinyana, R., Makdisi, S. and Tumen, S. (2019) “Repatriation of Refugees from Arab Conflicts: Conditions, Costs and Scenarios for Reconstruction”, ERF and FEMISE Euromed Report 2019.
Galal, A., Elbadawi, I., Diwan, I., Selim, H., Tzannatos, Z. and Youssef, J. (2017) “Economic Management under Fire: Navigating the Transition in South Med Economies”, ERF and FEMISE Euromed Report 2017