Jakob Rauschendorfer

Work in progress

Heat, automation, and the cost of imported capital: Evidence from Tanzania (draft available soon)

Abstract: I leverage unique data on Tanzanian manufacturing firms’ use of semi- and fully automated machinery to study automation as a firm-level adaptation strategy to extreme temperatures. I document three results. First, heat stress increases the likelihood that firms automate: ten additional days hazardous for work in the previous year increase the probability that a firm uses automation by about 2.5 percentage points. Heat-induced reductions in labour productivity, labour supply, or worker attendance emerge as plausible mechanisms. Second, consistent with the observed automation response, heat stress is associated with a reduction in firms’ manual worker share, while total employment appears unaffected and average wages rise. Firms with automated machinery also show greater resilience to heat stress than those without. Finally, I find evidence that a VAT exemption for machinery imports that effectively reduces the cost of imported capital amplifies the automation response to heat stress among larger firms. My findings provide novel evidence on automation as a firm-level adaptation strategy to extreme temperatures in a low-income setting and on how policies that reduce the cost of imported capital may shape this adaptation margin.

Market access, technology upgrading, and intermediation (draft available soon)

Abstract: This paper studies how improved access to global input markets affects firm-level performance in Uganda. Using linked VAT and customs data, I exploit falling transport costs along the country’s main import corridor as a source of plausibly exogenous variation in firms’ access to imported inputs. I find that lower input transport costs raise the revenues of initially small firms relative to larger firms. This stands in contrast to the scale-biased gains from trade typically emphasized in canonical models. Changes in firms’ sourcing patterns in response to falling transport costs are consistent with an underlying mechanism of asymmetric technology upgrading: small firms expand their input range, while larger firms show no corresponding changes in their input mix. Intermediation in imported inputs in this setting provides an additional channel for small firms to benefit from improved access to global input markets and amplifies the differential revenue effects. A heterogeneous-firms model of importing with technology upgrading and intermediation rationalizes the results.

Trade policies and relative caloric prices: New global evidence (with K. Abay, J. Solorzano-Lopez and R. Hashad) - Under review

Journal articles 

Trade policy reform, retail food prices and access to healthy diets worldwide (with R. Gilbert, L. Costlow, J. Matteson, E. Krivonos, S. A. Block and W. Master). World Development (2024), 177, 106535. Article.

Unmaking of a Customs Union: Regional (Dis)integration in the East African Community (with A. Twum). World Trade Review (2022), Volume 21 (1): 59-70. Article. Working Paper.

Trade, conflict and informality: Evidence from the South Sudanese civil war (with B. Shepherd). The World Economy (2022), Volume 45 (3): 867-894. Article. Working Paper.  

Policy reports, briefs, and book chapter (selected)

Uganda: Leaving Agriculture in Search of Progress on Transformation (with M. Guloba, M. Kakuru, and S. Ssewanyana). In: H. Bhorat, R. Newfarmer, J. Page, & B. Coulibaly (Eds.), New pathways to job creation and development in Africa: The promise of industries without smokestacks. Brookings Institution Press (2025). Book.

Drivers and implications of import tax evasion in Uganda (with J.O. Ayo, M. Best, N. Eissa, P. Lal, and S. Sequeira) International Growth Centre (2024). Report. Blog Post. 

Implications of the war in Ukraine for agrifood trade and food security in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean: Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco and Tunisia (with E. Krivonos). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (2022). Report.

Uganda’s participation in international and regional trade: Patterns, prospects and policy (with A. Stojanov and J. de Melo). International Growth Centre and World Bank (2021; publicly disclosed in 2023). Report.

The Covid-19 impact on Ugandan supply chains: The importance of imports (with J. Spray). International Growth Centre (2020). Policy Brief.

Estimating the fiscal impact of tariff reform in Uganda using TRIST. International Growth Centre (2020). Report.

What is the fiscal cost of tax incentives in Uganda? (with N. Eissa, P. Manwaring and N. Ntungire). International Growth Centre (2019). Report.

Agro-industrialisation in Uganda: current status, future prospects and possible solutions to pressing challenges (with M. Fowler). International Growth Centre (2019). Report.

The review of the Common External Tariff of the East African Community: Options for strengthening Uganda’s negotiation position. International Growth Centre (2019). Policy Brief.