Research and publications

Featured manuscripts (full list below)

Frequency of explosive cyclones in the Atlantic linked to the tropical Pacific

Abstract

Explosive cyclones (ECs), defined as extratropical cyclones that experience normalized pressure drops of at least 24 hPa in 24 hours, are impactful weather events in the North Atlantic sector, but year-to-year changes in the frequency and impacts of these storms are sizeable. To analyze the sources of this interannual variability, we track cases of ECs and dissect them into two spatial groups: those that formed near the east coast of North America (coastal) and those in the North Central Atlantic (high latitude). The frequency of high-latitude ECs is strongly correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, a well-known feature, whereas coastal EC frequency is statistically linked with an atmospheric wave-train emanating from the North Pacific in the last 30 years. This wave-train pattern of alternating high-and-low pressure is associated with heightened upper-level divergence and Eady growth rates along the east coast of North America, likely resulting in a stronger correspondence between the atmospheric wave-train and coastal EC frequency. Using a coupled model experiment, we show that the tropical and North Pacific oceans are an important factor for this atmospheric wave train and the subsequent enhancement of seasonal baroclinicity in the North Atlantic.

Typhoons near Korea amplify fire weather conditions during the September 2020 fire outbreak in Oregon

Abstract:

Strong winds that accentuated a fire outbreak in the western United States in early September of 2020 resulted from an atmospheric wave train that spanned the Pacific Ocean. Days before the atmospheric waves developed in the United States, three western Pacific tropical cyclones (typhoons) underwent an extratropical transition over Korea within an unprecedentedly short span of 12 days. Using a climate diagnostic approach and historical forecast data, it was found that the amplitude of the atmospheric waves accompanying the western U.S. fire weather would not have been so profound if not for the influence of these typhoons. Together, the recurving typhoons provided a significant source of wave activity flux directed toward North America – amplifying the ridge over the U.S. west coast while deepening the trough in central Canada. This anomalous circulation produced the severe frontal system that caused extreme winds in western Oregon, Washington and California – rapidly spreading fire.

Manuscript

Journalism

Research tools

See below for a tool I developed with the Utah Climate Center during my last months at Utah State University. This tool uses output from the Global Forecast System to forecast fire weather globally. This tool is still being tested, validated, and improved.

Select an initialization date (the day the model is run), select a geographic area, and view a GIF of forecasted fire weather values in your area.

In Preparation

Stuivenvolt-Allen, J., Fedorov, A. (2024) Walker Circulation controls on climate sensitivity: Geophysical Research Letters

Stuivenvolt-Allen, J., Fedorov, A. (2024) Quantifying the oceanic and atmopsheric non-linearities involved in ENSO: Insights from a hybrid-coupled model. Geophysical Research Letters

Stuivenvolt-Allen, J. (2024) Extreme temperature probabilities in sub-regions of North America altered by recurving west Pacific typhoons: Environmental Research Letters.

In Review

Stuivenvolt-Allen, J., Chikamoto, Y., Wang, S.-Y., Baek S-H., Yoon, J. (2024) Dynamics and climate change impacts driving the leading mode of hydroclimate variability in the western United States: Environmental Research Letters.

Stuivenvolt-Allen, J., Fedorov, A., Fu, M., Heede, U. (2024) Widening of wind-stress anomalies amplifies ENSO in a warming world: Journal of Climate.

Garuba, O., Liu, W., Stuivenvolt-Allen, J., Balaguru, K., Hagos, S., Wang., H. (2024). The role of oceanic and atmospheric feedbacks in the response of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to a CO2 increase. Journal of Climate.

Published

10. F. Johnson, Z., Stuivenvolt-Allen, J., Mahan, H., D.D. Meyer; Miksch, M. (2023). Upper Colorado River streamflow dependencies on summertime synoptic circulations and hydro-climate variability: Journal of Hydrometeorology

9. Dalanhese, L., Stuivenvolt Allen, J., LaPlante, M., Wang, S.-Y. (2023). An inter- comparison of South American extratropical cyclogenesis using Brazilian Navy data and ERA5: International Journal of Climatology. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8251

8. Stuivenvolt-Allen, J., Wang, S.-Y., Chikamoto, Y., Meyer, J. D.D., Johnson, Z. F., Deng, L. (2023) Growing Pacific Linkage with the Interannual Variability of North Atlantic Explosive Cyclogenesis: Journal of Climate. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0784.1

7. Wright, T., Stuivenvolt-Allen, J., Affram, G., Hasan A., N., Ratterman, C., Zhang, W. (2023). Responses of extreme discharge to changes in surface air and dewpoint temperatures in Utah: Seasonality and Mechanisms. Water. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15040688

6. Pokharel, B., Sharma, S., Stuivenvolt-Allen, J, B., Wang, S.-Y., LaPlante M., Gillies, R.R., Khanal, S., Wehner, M., Rhoades, A., Kalpana, H., Liu, W-Y., Mukherjee, S., Aryal, D. (2022). Amplified drought trends in Nepal increase the potential for Himalayan wildfire : Climatic Change. (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03495-3

5. Stuivenvolt-Allen, J., Wang, SY.S. North American fire weather catalyzed by the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones. Climate Dynamics (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06561-1

4. Stuivenvolt-Allen, J., Wang, S.-Y. S., Johnson, Z., & Chikamoto, Y. (2021). Atmospheric rivers impacting Northern California exhibit a quasi-decadal frequency. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 126,e2020JD034196. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD034196

3. Morgan, B., Spangler, K., Stuivenvolt-Allen, J., Morrisett, C. N., Brunson, M. W., Wang, S.-Y. S., & Huntly, N. (2021). Water Availability for Cannabis in Northern California: Intersections of Climate, Policy, and Public Discourse. Water, 13(1). https://doi.org/10.3390/w13010005

2. Stuivenvolt-Allen, J., Wang, S.-Y. S., LaPlante, M. D., & Yoon, J.-H. (2021). Three Western Pacific Typhoons Strengthened Fire Weather in the Recent Northwest U.S. Conflagration. Geophysical Research Letters, 48(3), e2020GL091430. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091430

1. Stuivenvolt-Allen, J. & S.-Y. Wang. (2019). Data-mining climate variability as an indicator of U.S. natural gas: Frontiers in Big Data: Integrating Big Data with Earth System Models of Natural and Human Systems. https://doi.org/10.3389/fdata.2019.00020