16. "The timing of voluntary delisting", (with Alcino Azevedo, Gonul Colak and Radu Tunaru), (2024), Journal of Financial Economics forthcoming. (ABS 4*, ABDC A*, FT50)
For many firms, voluntarily delisting from a stock exchange can be optimal. We model an entrepreneur’s incentives to voluntarily delist the firm as a trade-off between the consumption of private benefits when listed and expected improvements in the firm’s performance after delisting. Our model allows for heterogeneity across firms and countries, and various micro and macro shocks affect the delisting decision. Such a model makes novel predictions regarding the delisting patterns around the world. We empirically confirm these predictions using manually collected delisting data from 26 countries. Increasing policy and regulatory uncertainties can partially explain the greater popularity of voluntary delistings.
Keywords: Voluntary Delisting; Political Uncertainty; Regulatory Uncertainty; Competing Risk.
Presented at: European Financial Management Association - EFMA; Financial Management Association - FMA Europe; The 22nd Real Options Conference; Special Interest Group - British Accounting and Finance Association Meeting; International Finance and Banking Society; IFABS; Research seminars at University of Bath, Cardiff Business School, Kent Business School, Nagoya Business School, Aston Business School, and Adam Smith Business School.
15. "Non-Standard Errors", (with 342 co-authors), (2024), Journal of Finance forthcoming. (ABS 4*, ABDC A*, FT50)
In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: Non-standard errors (NSEs). We study NSEs by letting 164 teams test the same hypotheses on the same data. NSEs turn out to be sizable, but smaller for better reproducible or higher rated research. Adding peer-review stages reduces NSEs. We further find that this type of uncertainty is underestimated by participants.
Keywords: non-standard errors; multi-analyst approach; liquidity.
Presented at: Microstructure Exchange 2021, Derivatives Forum Frankfurt 2022, Financial Intermediation Research Society (FIRS) 2022, Research in Behavioral Finance Conference (RBFC) 2022, Society for Experimental Finance (SEF) 2022, Society for Financial Econometrics (SoFiE) 2022, Vienna-Copenhagen Conference on Financial Econometrics 2022, and the Western Finance Assocation (WFA) 2022.
Prizes: runner-up for the best-paper prize at Society for Financial Econometrics (SoFiE) 2022.
Co-authors: Albert J. Menkveld; Anna Dreber; Felix Holzmeister; Juergen Huber; Magnus Johannesson; Michael Kirchler; Michael Razen; Utz Weitzel; David Abad; Menachem (Meni) Abudy; Tobias Adrian; Yacine Ait-Sahalia; Olivier Akmansoy; Jamie Alcock; Vitali Alexeev; Arash Aloosh; Livia Amato; Diego Amaya; James Angel; Amadeus Bach; Edwin Baidoo; Gaetan Bakalli; Andrea Barbon; Oksana Bashchenko; Parampreet Christopher Bindra; Geir Hoidal Bjonnes; Jeff Black; Bernard Black; Santiago Bohorquez; Oleg Bondarenko; Charles S. Bos; Ciril Bosch-Rosa; Elie Bouria; Christian T. Brownlees; Anna Calamia; Viet Nga Cao; Gunther Capelle-Blancard; Laura Capera; Massimiliano Caporin; Allen Carrion; Tolga Caskurlu; Bidisha Chakrabarty; Mikhail Chernov; William M. Cheung; Ludwig B. Chincarini; Tarun Chordia; Sheung Chi Chow; Benjamin Clapham; Jean-Edouard Colliard; Carole Comerton-Forde; Edward Curran; Thong Dao; Wale Dare; Ryan J. Davies; Riccardo de Blasis; Fany Declerck; Oleg Deev; Hans Degryse; Solomon Deku; Christophe Desagre; Mathijs A. van Dijk; Chukwuma Dim; Thomas Dimpfl; Yun Jiang Dong; Philip Drummond; Tom Dudda; Ariadna Dumitrescu; Teodor Dyakov; Anne Haubo Dyhrberg; Michał Dzieliński; Asli Eksi; Izidin El Kalak; Saskia Ter Ellen; Nicolas Eugster; Martin D. D. Evans; Michael Farrell; Ester Félez-Viñas; Gerardo Ferrara; El Mehdi Ferrouhi; Andrea Flori; Jonathan Fluharty-Jaidee; Sean Foley; Kingsley Y. L. Fong; Thierry Foucault; Tatiana Franus; Francesco A. Franzoni; Bart Frijns; Michael Frömmel; Servanna Fu; Sascha Füllbrunn; Baoqing Gam; Thomas Gehrig; Dirk Gerritsen; Javier Gil-Bazo; Lawrence R. Golsten; Thomas Gomez; Arseny Gorbenko; Ufuk Güçbilmez; Joachim Grammig; Vincent Gregoire; Björn Hagströmer; Julien Hambuckers; Erik Hapnes; Jeffrey H. Harris; Simon Hartmann; Jean-Baptiste Hasse; Nikolaus Hautsch; Xuezhong He; Davidson Heath; Simon Hediger; Terrence Hendershott; Ann Marie Hibbert; Erik Hjalmarsson; Seth A. Hoelscher; Peter Hoffmann; Craig W. Holden; Alex R. Horenstein; Wenqian Huang; Da Huang; Christophe Hurlin; Alexey Ivashchenko; Subramanian R. Iyer; Hossein Jahanshahloo; Naji Jalkh; Charles M. Jones; Simon Jurkatis; Petri Jylha; Andreas Kaeck; Arzé Karam; Egle Karmaziene; Bernhard Kassner; Markku Kaustia; Ekaterina Kazak; Fearghal Kearney; Vincent van Kervel; Saad Khan; Marta Khomyn; Tony Klein; Olga Klein; Alexander Klos; Michael Koetter; Jan Pieter Krahnen; Aleskey Kolokolov; Robert A. Korajczyk; Roman Kozhan; Amy Kwan; Quentin Lajaunie; F.Y. Eric C. Lam; Marie Lambert; Hugues Langlois; Jens Lausen; Tobias Lauter; Markus Leippold; Vladimir Levin; Yijie Li; (Michael) Hui Li; Chee Yoong Liew; Thomas Lindner; Oliver B. Linton; Jiacheng Liu; Anqi Liu; Guillermo Llorente; Matthijs Lof; Ariel Lohr; Francis A. Longstaff; Alejandro Lopez-Lira; Nicola Mano; Alexis Marchal; Charles Martineau; Francesco Mazzola; Debrah Meloso; Roxana Mihet; Vijay Mohan; Sophie Moinas; David Moore; Liangyi Mu; Dmitriy Muravyev; Dermot Murphy; Gabor Neszveda; Christian Neumeier; Ulf Nielsson; Mahendrarajah Nimalendran; Sven Nolte; Lars Nordén; Peter O'Neill; Khaled Obaid; Bernt Arne Ødegaard; Per Östberg; Marcus Painter; Stefan Palan; Imon Palit; Andreas Park; Roberto Pascual; Paolo Pasquariello; Lubos Pastor; Vinay Patel; Andrew J. Patton; Neil D. Pearson; Loriana Pelizzon; Matthias Pelster; Christophe Pérignon; Cameron Pfiffer; Richard Philip; Tomáš Plíhal; Puneet Prakash; Oliver-Alexander Press; Tina Prodromou; Tālis J. Putniņš; Gaurav Raizada; David A. Rakowski; Angelo Ranaldo; Luca Regis; Stefan Reitz; Thomas Renault; Rex Wang Renjie; Roberto Renó; Steven Riddiough; Kalle Rinne; Paul Rintamäki; Ryan Riordan; Thomas Rittmannsberger; Iñaki Rodríguez-Longarela; Dominik Rösch; Lavinia Rognone; Brian Roseman; Ioanid Rosu; Saurabh Roy; Nicolas Rudolf; Stephen Rush; Khaladdin Rzayev; Aleksandra Rzeznik; Anthony Sanford; Harikumar Sankaran; Asani Sarkar; Lucio Sarno; Olivier Scaillet; Stefan Scharnowski; Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hoppé; Andrea Schertler; Michael Schneider; Florian Schroeder; Norman Schürhoff; Philipp Schuster; Marco A. Schwarz; Mark S. Seasholes; Norman Seeger; Or Shachar; Andriy Shkilko; Jessica Shui; Mario Sikic; Giorgia Simion; Lee A. Smales; Paul Söderlind; Elvira Sojli; Konstantin Sokolov; Laima Spokeviciute; Denitsa Stefanova; Marti G. Subrahmanyam; Sebastian Neusüss; Barnabas Szaszi; Oleksandr Talavera; Yuehua Tang; Nicholas Taylor; Wing Wah Tham; Erik Theissen; Julian Thimme; Ian Tonks; Hai Tran; Luca Trapin; Anders Bjerre Trolle; Giorgio Valente; Robert A. Van Ness; Aurelio Vasquez; Thanos Verousis; Patrick Verwijmeren; Anders Vilhelmsson; Grigory Vilkov; Vladimir Vladimirov; Sebastian Vogel; Stefan Voigt; Wolf Wagner; Thomas Walther; Patrick Weiss; Michel van der Wel; Ingrid M. Werner; P. Joakim Westerholm; Christian Westheide; Evert Wipplinger; Michael Wolff; Christian C. P. Wolff; Leonard Wolk; Wing Keung Wong; Jan Wrampelmeyer; Shuo Xia; Dacheng Xiu; Ke Xu; Caihong Xu; Pradeep K. Yadav; José Yagüe; Cheng Yan; Antti Yang; Woongsun Yoo; Wenjia Yu; Shihao Yu; Bart Z. Yueshen; Darya Yuferova; Marcin Zamojski; Abalfazl Zareei; Stefan Ziesberger; S. Sarah Zhang; Xiaoyu Zhang; Zhuo Zhong; Z. Ivy Zhou; Chen Zhou; Xingyu Sonya Zhu; Marius Zoican; Remco C. J. Zwinkels; Jian Chen; Teodor Duevski; Ge Gao; Roland Gemayel; Dudley Gilder; Paul Kuhle; Emiliano Pagnotta; Michele Pelli; Jantje Sönksen; Lu Zhang; Konrad Ilczuk; Dimitar Bogoev; Ya Qian; Hans C. Wika; Yihe Yu; Lu Zhao; Michael Mi; Li Bao; Andreea Vaduva; Marcel Prokopczuk; Alejandro Avetikian; Zhen-Xing Wu.
14. "Engaged ETFs and Firm Performance", (with Onur Tosun and Robert Hudson), (2024), European Financial Management. (ABS 3, ABDC A)
ETFs have often tracked indices and charged low fees so their incentives to improve firm performance are questionable although little empirical work has investigated this issue. Theoretically, however, we expect firms to perform better when held by more engaged ETFs. We develop a new measure of engagement using a weighted-average concentration measure which captures the combined effect of the concentration of the portfolios of the ETFs investing in a firm and the ownership of the firm by those ETFs. Using ETFs’ investment in US-listed firms for the period 2000-2019, we confirm our expectations that more engaged ETFs improve firm performance.
Keywords: Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), Portfolio Concentration, Corporate Governance, Monitoring, Firm Performance.
13. "CEO overconfidence and the speed of adjustment of cash holdings", (with Marc Goergen and Yilmaz Guney), (2024), The European Journal of Finance. (ABS 3)
In this study, we examine the links between CEO overconfidence, the speed of adjustment (SOA) of cash holdings, and firm value for listed US firms, finding a positive effect of CEO overconfidence on SOA. We address endogeneity concerns using a difference-in-differences approach, propensity score matching, and entropy balancing. Our results are robust to the use of alternative estimation methods. Finally, we conclude that financial constraints, leverage, and corporate governance quality affect the relation between CEO overconfidence and the SOA of cash holdings.
Key words: Cash holdings, adjustment speed, CEO overconfidence, US firms.
Presented at: 20th workshop on corporate governance and investment.
12. "The Bank of Japan's Equity Purchases and Stock Price Crash Risk", (with Onur Tosun and Kazuo Yamada), (2023), Economics Letters. (ABS 3)
This paper documents a negative relationship between the Bank of Japan’s indirect ownership, through ETFs, in a firm and the firm’s stock price crash risk. This relationship strengthens further after the introduction of the Stewardship Code due to improved corporate governance.
Keywords: Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), Bank of Japan, Monetary Policy, Crarsh Risk.
11. "The Bank of Japan's Equity Purchases and Stock Illiquidity", (with Woon Sau Leung, Hidenori Takahashi, and Kazuo Yamada), (2022), Journal of Financial Markets. (ABS 3, ABDC A*)
Using the large-scale index-linked exchange-traded fund (ETF) purchase program of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), we examine the role of unconventional equity-based monetary policies in the market liquidity of the underlying securities. Using a large sample of Japanese stocks, we document a significant increase in stock illiquidity when a firm’s ownership by the BOJ increases. Intensified ETF arbitrage activities partially mediate such effect. The increased illiquidity is concentrated among small and young firms and those whose shares are likely subject to strong buy pressure. Finally, BOJ ownership increases comovement in liquidity and stock returns and reduces informational efficiency.
Keywords: Bank of Japan; Monetary Policy; ETF; ETF Arbitrage; Stock Illiquidity.
Presented at: World Finance Conference 2021, Research seminar series at Cardiff Business School, Sussex Business School, and Kadir Has University.
10. "ETF ownership and corporate cash holdings", (with Onur Tosun), (2022), European Financial Management. (ABS 3, ABDC A)
Do exchange traded funds (ETFs) influence corporate cash holding decisions? Consistent with reduced managerial learning from the stock market and increased uncertainty due to higher ETF ownership, we show that firms included in ETF baskets have higher cash holdings as a precautionary response. We address endogeneity concerns through different natural experiments, namely, the reconstitution of the Russell 1000/2000 index and BlackRock’s acquisition of iShares. We identify changes in revenue, external financing, share repurchases, and net working capital as potential channels through which cash holdings increase due to higher ETF ownership, with cash holdings increases having positive impact on firm value.
Keywords: Exchange traded funds, Cash holdings, Share price informativeness, Cash value, Managerial learning
Presented at: BAFA - Asset Pricing and Corporate Finance Conference 2019; World Finance Conference 2021.
9. "How female directors help firms to attain optimal cash holdings", (with Onur Tosun and Robert Hudson), (2022), International Review of Financial Analysis, 80. (ABS 3)
Is female board representation helpful for firms attaining optimal cash holdings? We address this question using data on 1,163 US-listed firms for 2000-2017. We show that if there are more female directors on firm boards, ceteris paribus, there is no effect on excess cash holdings implying that female directors are not inclined to be particularly cautious or optimistic. However, in the presence of overly confident CEOs, having more female directors on the board counteracts the tendency of such CEOs to reduce cash holding below an optimal level. Thus, female board representation enhances corporate decision making through effective monitoring and thus, taming CEOs’ biased behavior.
Keywords: Female directors; excess cash; CEO overconfidence; effective monitoring; board diversity.
Presented at: FEBS conference; Essex Finance Conference - EFiC; Cardiff Business School Workshop; Cardiff-Xiamen-Newcastle annual conference;
8. "The effect of the feed-in-system policy on renewable energy investments: Evidence from the EU countries", (with Alolo Mutaka and Alcino Azevedo), (2020), Energy Economics, 92. (ABS 3)
We study the effect of the Feed-in-System (FIS) policy on wind and solar photovoltaic energy investments in the European Union (EU), over the time period between 1992 and 2015, considering the heterogeneity of the policies and market conditions across the EU countries. We develop a FIS subsidy performance indicator that distinguishes feed-in-tariff (FIT) from feed-in-premium (FIP) and considers other important aspects of each of these contracts, such as the duration, tariff price, energy spot price and production costs, as well as the market conditions. We conclude that the mere existence of the FIS policy does not necessarily enhance renewable energy investments, it depends on the type of the FIS contract and its features, and may vary across the different sources of renewable energy. Some of our findings are new to the literature and can have important implications in the development of new public investment incentives to promote renewable energy.
Keywords: Feed-in-System; Feed-in-Tariff; European union; Renewable energy' Solar photovoltaic; Wind energy.
7. "In search of stock repurchases determinants in listed Indonesian firms during regulatory changes", (with Abdul Moin and Yilmaz Guney), (2020), Journal of Economic Behavior and Organisation,176, 145-165. (ABS 3)
Motivated by the introduction of share repurchases regulations in 1998 and 2007 coupled with unique characteristics of the Indonesian market, we investigate the effect of firm’s sub-optimal financial position on its share repurchases decisions. Then, we study the effect of these determinants through an exogenous shock, the 2007 regulatory change. We show that sub-optimal financial positions play a role in the corporate share repurchases decisions. Further, we find that the enactment of the regulations has a significant effect on firms’ undertaking share repurchases programs. Unlike the common perception and findings in the literature, we observe that the underpricing of shares has a weak effect on the Indonesian firms’ decisions to repurchase their stocks. Our results hold using several estimation methods that account for potential endogeneity issues.
Key words: Share repurchases; regulations; dividends; sub-optimal decisions; underpricing; Indonesia.
6. "The effects of ownership structure, sub-optimal cash holdings and investment inefficiency on dividend policy: evidence from Indonesia", (with Abdul Moin and Yilmaz Guney), (2020), Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 55, 857–900. (ABS 3)
We investigate how a firm’s decision to hold excessive cash or to over-invest could influence its dividend payout policy in Indonesia. Additionally, we examine the association between corporate ownership structure and cash dividends. Using a data set of Indonesian listed firms for the period from 1995 to 2014, we find that excessive cash holding (over-investment) positively (negatively) affects a firm’s likelihood of paying dividends. Also, we find that family, foreign, state and institutional ownership have significantly negative links with dividends, which suggests the signals of expropriation of firms’ wealth by major shareholders. These findings strongly support the expropriation hypothesis that commonly applies to firms with higher level of concentration or to firms in a weak legal environment by which the rights of minority interests are put at risk by large shareholders.
Key words: Dividend policy; overcash; overinvestment; corporate governance; ownership structure; Indonesia.
5. "The cross-market efficiency of the Italian derivatives market", (with Robert Hudson), (2020), Review of Accounting and Finance, 19(2), 109-133. (ABS 2)
In this study, we examine the cross-market efficiency of the FTSE/MIB index options contracts traded on the Italian derivatives market (IDEM) between 1st October 2007 and 31st December 2012, a period including the financial crisis, using daily option prices. Two fundamental no-arbitrage conditions are tested: the lower boundary condition (LBC) and the put/call parity (PCP) condition while taking into account the role of transaction costs in mitigating the number of violations reported. Ex-post tests of LBC and PCP revealed a low incidence of mis-pricing in this market. Furthermore, to check the robustness of the results obtained by the ex-post tests, ex-ante tests were applied to PCP violations occurring within a one-day lag. The results showed a significant drop in the number of profitable arbitrage strategies. Overall, the number and monetary value of the violations reported declined during the post financial crisis period compared to those during the financial crisis period. The findings obtained from these tests generally support the cross-market efficiency of the Italian index options market during the sample period, though some violations were occasionally reported.
Key words: Cross-market efficiency, index options market, no-arbitrage condition, financial crisis.
4. "Stock liquidity and SMEs’ likelihood of bankruptcy: Evidence from the US market", (with Alcino Azevedo, Robert Hudson, and Nazri Abd Karim), (2017), Research in International Business and Finance 42, 1383-1393. (ABS 2)
We study the association between the stock liquidity of SMEs in the US and their likelihood of bankruptcy, using a dataset that comprises information on 5,075 firms over the time period from 1984 to 2013. We find that less liquid stocks are associated with higher probability of bankruptcy, although there is substantial heterogeneity across industries regarding the predictive power of the liquidity measure on the likelihood of bankruptcy. Furthermore, the exchange where the SMEs are listed also affects the likelihood of bankruptcy. Classification performance tests conclude that adding a liquidity measure variable to the Campbell et al. (2008) model improves its predictive power.
Key words: Market liquidity, liquidity measures, bankruptcy, hazard model.
3. "Reviewing the hedge funds literature II: Hedge funds' returns and risk management characteristics", (with Alcino Azevedo and Robert Hudson), (2016), International Review of Financial Analysis 48, 55-66. (ABS 3)
In this paper, we provide the second part on the literature review on hedge funds (HFs) developed over the last two decades. More specifically, we concentrate on the literature which relates to risk management characteristics (a companion piece investigates the managerial characteristics of HFs). We discuss the successes and the shortfalls to date in developing more sophisticated risk management frameworks and tools to measure and monitor HF risks, and the empirical evidence on the role of the HFs and their investment behaviour and risk management practices on the stability of the financial system. We also classify the HF literature considering the most recent contributions and, particularly, the regulatory developments after the 2007 financial crisis.
Key words: Hedge funds, return characteristics, risk management characteristics.
2. "Reviewing the hedge funds literature I: Hedge funds and hedge funds' managerial characteristics", (with Alcino Azevedo and Robert Hudson), (2016), International Review of Financial Analysis 48, 85-97. (ABS 3)
In this paper, we attempt to summarize the literature on hedge funds (HFs) developed over the last two decades, particularly that which relates to managerial characteristics (a companion piece covers the return and risk management characteristics of HFs). We classify, the current HF literature, suggesting which critical problems have been “solved” and which problems have not been yet adequately addressed. We also discuss the effects of past financial regulation and the prospects for the effect of new financial regulation on the HF industry and its performance and risk management practices, and suggest new avenues for research. Furthermore, we highlight the importance of managerial characteristics for HF performance, and the successes and the shortfalls to date in developing more sophisticated HF-related risk management tools.
Key words: Hedge funds, hedge funds characteristics, managerial characteristics.
1. "The effect of size on the failure probabilities of SMEs: An empirical study on the US market using discrete hazard model", (with Robert Hudson), (2016), International Review of Financial Analysis 43, 135-145. (ABS 3)
In this paper, we investigate the extent to which the size affects the SME probabilities of bankruptcy. Using a large dataset of (11,117) US non-financial firms, of which (465) filed for insolvency under chapters 7 and 11 between 1980 and 2013. We forecast the bankruptcy probabilities by developing four discrete-time duration-dependent hazard models for SMEs, Micro, Small, and Medium firms. A comparison of the default prediction models for medium firms and SMEs suggests that an almost identical set of explanatory variables affect the default probabilities leading us to believe that treating each of these groups separately has no material impact on the decision making process. However, comparisons between the micro and small firms with the SMEs firms strongly suggest that these categories need to be considered separately when modelling their credit risk.
Key words: SMEs, bankruptcy, size, discrete-time duration-dependent hazard model.
1. "On the dynamics of small and medium-sized enterprises: Evidence from Japan", (with Kazuo Yamada and Hidenori Takahashi), (2018), Asian Development Bank Institute. Working Paper Series, No. 819.
The main objective of this paper is to understand how the changes in the macroeconomic conditions (the global financial crisis) relate to the investment and financial decision-making for each of the different size categories of SMEs. To do so, we use a large dataset of 764,963 observations in Japan for the time period from 2006 to 2014. This large size of dataset enables us to understand the heterogeneity of SMEs on the financing and investment decision-making: such as the size, industry, and region. Our findings are of particular importance to regulators because they show that SMEs are dynamic in nature where they change their financial behavior in response to any macroeconomic shock. In addition, we report differences among the different size subsample at the sales growth and state/industry GDP growth levels; hence, this requires the design of a unique set of regulations for each group accordingly to properly enhance the growth potential for each group and for SMEs as a whole. Moreover, these findings have implications on lenders especially banks to treat each size group within SMEs differently while lending or assessing creditworthiness.
Key words:: SMEs, size categories, macro-economic shocks, investment, financing policy, Japan.