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Evaluating near-term climate prediction
Evaluating near-term climate prediction
東亞地區年代際變異及其對極端熱浪與寒潮事件影響與可預報度評估
Linking decadal prediction with Taiwan’s climate : Hot summer in Taiwan
Linking decadal prediction with Taiwan’s climate : Hot summer in Taiwan
Tsai, C., Y. Wang, W. Tseng, and L. Chiang, 2025: Pacific Meridional Mode Implicated as a Prime Driver of Decadal Summer Temperature Variation over Taiwan. J. Climate, 38, 1881–1894, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0734.1.
蔡睫葶、王懌琪、曾琬鈴、羅敏輝、洪志誠、羅資婷（2025）。太平洋經向模態對臺灣熱浪的年代際影響。大氣科學，53(2)，62-83。https://doi.org/10.53106/025400022025095302001
2025 December
2025 December
Intensified tropical cyclone activity in East Asia during the Maunder (solar) Minimum
Intensified tropical cyclone activity in East Asia during the Maunder (solar) Minimum
Tropical cyclone (TC) imposes tremendous threats to the human society, but predicting TC behavior is still difficult. One important limitation is the lack of long-term observational data as instrumental observation started in the 19th century. Satellite observation which provides wide spatial coverage began in 1979. This study presents a newly reconstructed TC dataset in the Northwestern Pacific from the mid-14th century onward. Documentary records were retrieved from the REACHES database for the reconstruction which was compared with the IBTrACS data. The results show that the peak TC period corresponded to the Maunder Minimum characterized by a grand solar minimum and low temperature. The peak activity was accompanied with amplified variabilities in the spatial locations and changing behaviors in the seasonality.
Tropical cyclone (TC) imposes tremendous threats to the human society, but predicting TC behavior is still difficult. One important limitation is the lack of long-term observational data as instrumental observation started in the 19th century. Satellite observation which provides wide spatial coverage began in 1979. This study presents a newly reconstructed TC dataset in the Northwestern Pacific from the mid-14th century onward. Documentary records were retrieved from the REACHES database for the reconstruction which was compared with the IBTrACS data. The results show that the peak TC period corresponded to the Maunder Minimum characterized by a grand solar minimum and low temperature. The peak activity was accompanied with amplified variabilities in the spatial locations and changing behaviors in the seasonality.
K.E. Lin,W. Tseng,Y. Lin,C. Lee,Y. Lin,H. Hsu, & P. Wang, Intensified tropical cyclone activity in East Asia during the Maunder (solar) Minimum, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 122 (52) e2419759122, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2419759122 (2025).
[News] https://pr.ntnu.edu.tw/ntnunews/index.php?mode=data&id=24179
CMIP7 Data Request
CMIP7 Data Request
The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 7 (CMIP7) undertook an extensive process to gather community input and refine data requests related to impacts and adaptation applications of Earth System Model (ESM) outputs.
The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 7 (CMIP7) undertook an extensive process to gather community input and refine data requests related to impacts and adaptation applications of Earth System Model (ESM) outputs.
The Impacts and Adaptation (I&A) Data Request Team worked with CMIP7 leadership to distribute an open solicitation across many communities that use climate model outputs requesting inputs for new and existing variables, the most applicable temporal characteristics, and groupings of variables that together allow for specific application opportunities.
The Impacts and Adaptation (I&A) Data Request Team worked with CMIP7 leadership to distribute an open solicitation across many communities that use climate model outputs requesting inputs for new and existing variables, the most applicable temporal characteristics, and groupings of variables that together allow for specific application opportunities.
The ocean and sea ice are central to Earth's climate system, influencing global heat and carbon cycles, weather patterns, and sea level rise. Recent decades have seen rapid advances in Earth System Models (ESMs), but limitations remain in simulating and comparing key oceanic and cryospheric processes across models.
The ocean and sea ice are central to Earth's climate system, influencing global heat and carbon cycles, weather patterns, and sea level rise. Recent decades have seen rapid advances in Earth System Models (ESMs), but limitations remain in simulating and comparing key oceanic and cryospheric processes across models.
CMIP7 是全球氣候科學界最核心的協作平台之一，直接支撐 IPCC 評估報告與各國氣候政策制定。CMIP7 不僅整合來自世界各地頂尖地球系統模式的模擬成果，還特別強化對氣候衝擊、調適與風險評估的應用導向，讓科學成果能真正回應社會需求。透過參與 CMIP7，研究團隊得以在國際舞台上共同定義關鍵科學問題、資料需求與方法標準，提升模式可比性與可信度，同時促進跨領域合作。這不僅有助於深化對氣候系統的理解，也讓本地與區域研究能與全球科學脈絡接軌，在面對氣候變遷這一全球性挑戰時，發揮更具影響力與前瞻性的貢獻。透過參與 CMIP7 架構下的兩項關鍵 Task，並在其中提供具體而務實的貢獻。其中一項 Task 聚焦於資料需求與應用端連結，協助釐清氣候模式輸出在衝擊與調適研究中的實際使用情境，並提出對變數選擇與時間尺度設定的建議，讓資料更貼近決策與跨領域研究需求。另一項 Task 則著重於海洋與海冰相關過程，參與討論關鍵物理機制與模式限制，協助整合不同模型之間的共通指標，提升跨模式比較與長期評估的科學價值。透過這兩項 Task 的投入，不僅將自身台灣經驗回饋至國際資料設計與科學規劃中，也促進台灣研究議題在 CMIP7 國際社群中的能見度，讓貢獻不只是參與，而是真正產生影響。
Impacts and Adaptation Priorities and Opportunities
Ruane, A. C., Pascoe, C. L., Teichmann, C., Brayshaw, D. J., Buontempo, C., Diouf, I., ... & Zurell, D. (2025). CMIP7 data request: impacts and adaptation priorities and opportunities. Geoscientific Model Development, 18(23), 9497-9540. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-9497-2025
Ocean and Sea Ice Priorities and Opportunities
Ocean and Sea Ice Priorities and Opportunities
https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3083/egusphere-2025-3083.pdf
再生能源與氣候服務
再生能源與氣候服務
核心目標是將氣候科學轉化為可實際支撐能源規劃與決策的科學依據，在臺灣能源轉型與國際氣候行動中具有關鍵重要性。能源轉型不只是技術與政策問題，更是對氣候變異與可預報性的理解與應用問題。這些成果不僅深化了臺灣在地的科學基礎，也讓相關研究能自然銜接 CMIP 與國際氣候服務發展方向，在學術與實務層面都具有長遠影響。
離岸風電：系統性量化了 ENSO 對臺灣海峽風速與「施工天氣窗」的影響，首次以長期再分析資料明確指出聖嬰與反聖嬰事件會顯著改變風場結構，進而影響風機安裝的可行時段。研究顯示反聖嬰年在秋冬季可使可施工天氣窗減少最多達四成，對工程排程與成本具有實質衝擊。這項工作的重要性在於，將原本偏向學術的氣候年際變動，直接連結到離岸風電產業最關鍵的實務問題，並證明季節到年際氣候預測可作為風電工程風險管理與氣候服務的核心工具，對亞洲季風區與全球離岸風電發展均具有高度參考價值
太陽光電：建立了全臺高解析度網格化地表短波輻射資料，整合向日葵八號衛星與地面觀測，並進一步校正太陽能板過熱造成的系統性高估誤差。研究成果不僅首次全面盤點臺灣各縣市的太陽能發電潛勢，也清楚指出西部地區具有穩定且可長期支撐能源供給的優勢，並揭示自然冷卻效應在特定區域對提升發電效率的關鍵角色。此研究的重要性在於，將遙測資料轉化為可直接用於政策與電力調度的量化資訊，為臺灣 2050 淨零與再生能源占比目標提供科學基礎，也為其他高人口密度、地形複雜地區提供可複製的方法論
Wan-Ling Tseng, Cheng-Wei Lin, Yi-Chi Wang, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Kuan-Ming Chiu, Yueh-Shyuan Wu, Yi-Huan Hsieh, Ying-Ting Chen (2024, Nov). Evaluating constraints on offshore wind farm installation across the Taiwan Strait by exploring the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on weather window assessment. Heliyon, e40125.
曾琬鈴 林正偉 李淳弘 張雅琪 許晃雄 馮嘯儒 張育承 葉子嫈 翁敏娟（2025年11月）。高解析度網格化地表短波輻射資料評估臺灣太陽能發電潛勢。太陽能及新能源學刊。
李淳弘 張雅琪 曾琬鈴 楊睿中（2024年12月）。應用現代投資組合理論探討氣候變遷下臺灣陸域風機的配置。臺灣能源期刊，11(4),1-21。
Pacific-Japan Pattern東亞夏季三極降水如何驅動臺灣夏季高溫與乾旱複合極端事件?
Pacific-Japan Pattern東亞夏季三極降水如何驅動臺灣夏季高溫與乾旱複合極端事件?
系統性探討PJ pattern對臺灣夏季高溫與乾旱極端的影響。結果顯示，當PJ型處於正位相時，臺灣上空受反氣旋與下沉運動控制，雲量與降雨減少，地表接受更多太陽輻射，導致島內氣溫整體升高，熱浪發生頻率與影響面積顯著增加。進一步分析指出，除大尺度下沉造成的絕熱增溫外，降雨抑制引發的土壤濕度耗竭，使潛熱通量降低、感熱通量上升，強化陸氣正回饋，促成高溫與乾旱的複合極端。研究凸顯PJ型作為可預測氣候模態，在臺灣季節尺度高溫與乾旱風險評估及預警應用上的關鍵價值。
Tseng, W. L., Hong, C. C., Lee, M. Y., Hsu, H. H., & Chang, C. C. (2020). Compound effect of local and remote sea surface temperatures on the unusual 2018 western North Pacific summer monsoon. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II, 98(6), 1369-1385.https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2020-071
Tseng, W.-L., Lin, S.-Y., Wang, Y.-C., Lo, S.-H., Lo, M.-H., Lee, S.-Y., Tsai, C.-T., & Hsu, H.-H. (2023). Impact of Pacific–Japan pattern on temperature and heatwave events in summer over Taiwan. International Journal of Climatology, 43(15), 7067–7081. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8252
Lin, S., M. Lo, W. Tseng, Y. Wang, and C. Cheng, 2025: The Positive Pacific–Japan Pattern Drives Compound Heat and Dry Extremes in Summer over Taiwan. J. Climate, 38, 6837–6852, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0573.1.
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