Why I like this: Shavkat Rakhmonov is a scary dude. I know Ian Garry is also undefeated in his professional and UFC career, but there is a reason Ian has the most accomplished submission specialist helping in his corner tonight at T-Mobile Arena (Charles Oliveira). Ian has been training muay thai for this fight to try to keep the distance against an always pressuring Rakhmonov. Ian's only way of 'survivng' is to knee Shavkat in the stomach to stop his pressure.  

The BET: Shavkat Rakhmonov to win by submission at +195 @ Circa is the best price I see on the market. I like to compare fights, and the one that pops in my mind is Whittaker vs. Chimaev. Once these guys get their hands on their opponent... It's tough sledding. Listening to Stephen Thompson reflect on his fight he claims Shavkat has unreal grip. Charles Oliveira is in the corner for Ian Garry and this tells me Ian expects to be in a bad position at some point in this fight. When the boogyman gets ahold of you...you either tap or go to sleep. Let's see Kazakhstan get it's first title opportunity! #Bookit

Why I like this: I think this number is completely wrong. Ask yourself why you're getting a former PVP fighter at + money where the other fighters game plan works exactly to his favor??? Aljamain Sterling ladies and gentleman. Now you might really cash some crazy tickets here, Aljo by KO/TKO at 20/1 (@Circa) or for him to win by decision at +350 (@Circa & @Bet MGM). He's going to dominate every position Movsar Evloev presents, just look at what Diego Lopes almost did to him in his UFC debut. (If Diego had better cardio that fight and was more developed in his career, he finishes Evloev 9 times out of 10). Now we're getting Aljamain Sterling as an underdog, arguably on the cusp of a title shot??? 

The BET: Aljamain Sterling to win at +200 if the safe play. You can find this at Circa and Bet MGM. Im not saying this is free money, but I don't know how much easier Aljo will make this fight look. There's not one second Aljo is complacent is his fights. He rarely spends time on his back. If he is on his back this fight, it's going to be because some stupid head kick that lands that puts him to sleep, which can you find at Circa for +600 (Movsar Evloev to win by KO/TKO). The Human backpack will show us who the best on the mat is in the 145 division, and his name is the Funk Master! Aljamain Sterling ML +200 #Bookit   

Why I like this: Both of these fighter are well past their prime. Michael Chiesa, the favorite, is 37 years old while Max Griffin is 39 years old. With the average age being 38 between these two fighter, they are definitely in the final fights of their career. We will play the percentage north of 60% that this fight ends needing the judges, the question is now who comes up on top. Chiesa's best chance of winning is by submission, but Griffin has never tapped out in his professional career. If Max can keep this mostly on the feet, he should find his way to winning this fight by points.

The BET: Max Griffin to win by Decision +215 is a good bet because looking at three different books we see a disparity. Max is the underdog and is listed at DK at +215 and Michael is sitting at +180. While at Bet MGM both fighters are +200 to win by decision. At Circa Sports, the underdog has shorter odds to win by decision. (Max is +210 while Michael is +215) That tells me someone else believes Chiesa's best way of winning is by submission, which you can also grab at Circa for +425. (wouldn't hate that bet) Max has never tapped, and we don't think a 37 year old is really a big threat to do that now to him. Max Griffin to win by decision +215 #Bookit

Why I like this: Gillian Robertson has shown massive improvements in her striking. She picked her last opponent apart in Polyana Viana securing the second round TKO. She was 2/2 on takedowns in that fight. I don't see where Michelle Waterson-Gomez has any advantage in this fight, and believe if and when it goes to the ground shes going to be in seroius trouble. 

The BET: Gillian Robertson to win by submission at +230 is my lock for this card. When this fight goes to the ground, Robertson will pick and choose how she wants to get Gomez out of there. Michelle will get desperate and present her arms when she's on her back. There, Gillian should attack that open arm and sink in one of her favorite submissions the arm bar. I could also see a traingle if Michelle does flip positions. Whatever pays the bills. +230 Book it!  

Why I like this: Devin Clark has had a tough UFC career being victim to a couple nasty submissions. However, this week he has an opponent in Marcin Prachnio who only has one win by submission in 23 professional fights. (Came back in 2013 with a rear naked choke. “Easiest submission” and with the BFC organization) I will put my kids College fund that Devin doesn’t get tapped out in this fight. I like Clark to be the more dominant wrestler and land the bigger strikes leading to an easy Decision victory. If you can find him to win by unanimous decision, even juicier. 

The BET: Devin Clark to win by decision +145 seems like a handout from God. Marcin is 35 years old and once an MMA fighter reaches this point is his life, the odds are very much stacked against him/her. I believe Clark will out wrestle Prachnio the majority of the fight maintaining control time, while landing the more damaging strikes. Only fear is Clark getting the KO, but it’s been 2 years since Clark won by KO, and 4 years since Prachnio has lost by KO. Ride this + money bet to the bank. Thank ML later.

Why I like this: Mayra Burno Silva has POWER. She has a track record of submitting people however in one of her pre fight interviews, she states that "I am going to Knock her (Raquel Pennington) out." I like to listen to these interviews. Some people think it could be a smoke screen, but I just believe shes so confident in this fight, she can give away her gameplan. Let's see if Pernnington can stop it. Raquel also aquired HER equipment on Thursday from being lost due to traveling. That is a red flag if I ever saw one. 

The BET: We're going with the KO price here at +925. There is WAY too much value here not to back this prop. Mayra wants to prove she is not a one trick poney, and that she can replace the GOAT in Amanda Nunues. This fight will get finished by Silva, the only way we lose this, is if she wins by Submission. #Book It