Betting Page
Record: 2-6
-1.6$
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
Why I like this: Gilbert Burns is a Jiu-Jitsu black belt who is going up against a decordated mixed martial artist in Jack Della Maddalena. Jack has shown a glaring weakness in the past by putting himself in bad positions at the end of rounds. Gilbert is one of the smartest fighters in the UFC and when he takes this fight to the ground, he's going to leave plenty of time to work in his signature submission.
The BET: Gilbert Burns to win by submssion at +280 is my lock for this card. He is going to find his way to the mat by taking Jack down and then finish him with a head and arm choke. Jack has been put in these positions before, and he will find himself in one again. It will only be a matter of time before Jack taps, and then we can make a happy trip to the counter my friends. +280 Book it!
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
Why I like this: Roman Kopylov is a dangerous fighter. He puts people to sleep. He faces Anthony Hernandez to open up the Main card. Roman is one of the most technical fighters ive seen in a long time. He chooses his KO shot, and doesn't swing wildly. He's won almost every round he's been in during his UFC career. Anthony is a submission specialist, a test the UFC is giving Roman in my opinion. If he can keep this standing... It's going to be night night for Anthony.
The BET: Roman Kopylov to win by KO +350 is my favorite bet of the night. If this guy brings his A game, (which he usually does) he is winning this fight by KO. He just can't get taken down from Anthony Hernandez. That's where I see us losing this fight to a decsion. If Roman keeps this standing... Your welcome. +350 Book it!
UFC Fight Night: Hermannson vs. Pyfer
Why I like this: Devin Clark has had a tough UFC career being victim to a couple nasty submissions. However, this week he has an opponent in Marcin Prachnio who only has one win by submission in 23 professional fights. (Came back in 2013 with a rear naked choke. “Easiest submission” and with the BFC organization) I will put my kids College fund that Devin doesn’t get tapped out in this fight. I like Clark to be the more dominant wrestler and land the bigger strikes leading to an easy Decision victory. If you can find him to win by unanimous decision, even juicier.
The BET: Devin Clark to win by decision +145 seems like a handout from God. Marcin is 35 years old and once an MMA fighter reaches this point is his life, the odds are very much stacked against him/her. I believe Clark will out wrestle Prachnio the majority of the fight maintaining control time, while landing the more damaging strikes. Only fear is Clark getting the KO, but it’s been 2 years since Clark won by KO, and 4 years since Prachnio has lost by KO. Ride this + money bet to the bank. Thank ML later.
UFC 297: Strickland Vs. Du Plessis
Why I like this: Mayra Burno Silva has POWER. She has a track record of submitting people however in one of her pre fight interviews, she states that "I am going to Knock her (Raquel Pennington) out." I like to listen to these interviews. Some people think it could be a smoke screen, but I just believe shes so confident in this fight, she can give away her gameplan. Let's see if Pernnington can stop it. Raquel also aquired HER equipment on Thursday from being lost due to traveling. That is a red flag if I ever saw one.
The BET: We're going with the KO price here at +925. There is WAY too much value here not to back this prop. Mayra wants to prove she is not a one trick poney, and that she can replace the GOAT in Amanda Nunues. This fight will get finished by Silva, the only way we lose this, is if she wins by Submission. #Book It
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs Ankalaev
Why I like this: Brunno Ferreira has zero fights that have gone the distance and only two that have made it out of the first round. Phil Hawes is either getting the KO or getting KO'd. He's lost the last three of four due to being KO'd and I can't back anyone who has shown to be 'chinny'. The KO price for Brunno Ferreira is +130, however, were getting greedy here and relying on Phil to stumble into an over hand or uppercut to put him to sleep in the first round.
The BET: Were rolling with Brunno Ferreira to win in Round 1 at +180. Out of his eleven fights he's only seen the second round twice. We will take the 82% chance anyday in this sport. Like/Follow the new Punching Profits Podcast on Spotify.
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington -1 Unit
Why I like this: Casey O'Neill is a well rounded fighter. She is comfortable wherever this fight goes, and this is one of the main reasons I like her. She is coming off an undisclosed surgery, so this isn't a whale play by any means. She targeted in her tweet a December comeback when the tweet was sent in August, and I do like when timelines meet reality. That means rehab/training has been good. She's has title hopes, and wants to avenge her previous loss to Jennifer Mia.
The BET: I took King Casey O/Neill by Decision at +140. Doing the reserach, north of 60% of Womens Bantamweight fights end in a decision . I really don't see any other outcome here, so its really a flip of the coin in who will have the better night. I believe Casey will have the edge everywhere she goes tonight, and thats why I love her to bounce back and get back into the win column at UFC 296.
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington -1 Unit
Why I like this: Paddy Pimblett is someone the UFC "wants to win." So how do you push someone's popularity even more? Giving him the opportunity to add a 'legend's name in Tony Ferguson to his win colum. Paddy has shown improvements in his striking. He just needs to keep his hands up more; evidnet in his last fight with Jared Gordon. Paddy is also a world class Jiu-Jitsu practitioner; another reason I like backing him in this fight.
The BET: I took Paddy The Baddy Pimblett by Submission at +240. Every matchup in the UFC isnt made in heaven; but this one might actually be. Who possibly can the UFC get to boost Paddy's populatrity after a controversial last fight? GIVE HIM EL CUCUY! Tony's lost his last six fights, and his previous 2 losses were by submission...
I don't see Paddy wanting to stand toe to toe with Tony, and therefore will probably shoot early in the round to get Ferguson on the ground. Once that happens, it's almost a guarentee that Paddy sinks in some kind of sub and gets Tony out of there whether he taps or not at UFC 296.
Here I post my bets every day, the ones I make. Record and Units will be posted of course.
-1 Unit
UFC Fight Night: Gutierrez vs. Song - Dec 9th, 2023.
Why I like this: Andre Muniz is a 2 dan black belt in jiu-jitsu and muay thai Prajied dark blue belt. However, he has taken back to back losses in which he was north of a -200 favorite. Finally he is in the underdog role, I think for a great reason. The Iron Turtle's (Jun Yong Park) last three fights were won by Submission. (all Rear-Naked chokes) He will not be affraid to go to the ground if neccesary with Muniz.
The BET: I took the Iron Turle by KO/TKO at +230 in Las Vegas at CircaSports. Im not sold on Andre Muniz having a "chin" and I think Park sparks Muniz up on the feet forcing Andre to take sloppy take downs. I think Park ends up on top finishing this fight with ground and pound and the referee will needing to step in.
+2.6 Units
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz - Aug 13 2022