Institute for Inclusive Economics

8:30-8:45 am: Opening Remarks:

Kareem El Aynaoui (OCP) and Gail Cohen (NASEM)

8:45-10:15 am: Session 1: Decoupling of Emissions and Economic Activity

Roundtable discussion drawing on IMF-NASEM work on extent of decoupling for a large group of countries and sub-national entities within the United States and China (Cohen et al, Energy Economics 2018, Energy Policy 2018). What factors explain cross-country differences in decoupling? What can emerging economies learn from the experience and policy efforts of advanced economies?

Chair: Gail Cohen (NASEM)

Presentation: Prakash Loungani (IMF), Tracking Decoupling: A Simple Framework

Background materials: "Emissions and Growth: Top 20 countries" and "Emissions and Growth: China"

Discussants: Renee Fry-McKibbin (ANU), Xinye Zheng (RUC)

Background material: "Discussion by Renee Fry-McKibbin"

10:15-10:30 am: Coffee Break

10:30-11:00 am: Talk by Stefan Dercon (Oxford)

on his book “Dull disasters? How planning ahead will make a difference”

11:00 am-12:30 pm: Session 2: Helping Countries Cope with Climate Shocks

Roundtable discussion on how countries, particularly low-income countries, can shield their growth and fiscal positions from climate shocks. Builds on work by Papageorgiou et al on a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model calibrated to features of low-income countries, in which the effects of alternate policy choices and the impact of aid can be simulated.

Chair: Chris Adam (Oxford)

Presentations: Giovanni Melina (IMF), Climate Change and Macroeconomic Outcomes in Small Developing States

Presentations: David Bevan (Oxford), Financing the Reconstruction of Public Capital after a Natural Disaster

Background materials: "Climate Disaster Risk – Empirics, Model and Financing Policies"

Discussants: Doug Gollin (Oxford), Willi Semmler (New School)

Background material: "Discussion by Willi Semmler"

12:30-1:30 pm: Lunch

1:30-2:30 pm: Session 3: Climate Change: The IMF and World Bank in Action

Chair: Prakash Loungani (IMF)

Presentations: Johannes Wiegand (IMF): The IMF and Climate Change

Background material: "Climate, Environment, and the IMF" and "5 Things You Need to Know About the IMF and Climate Change"

Presentations: Dirk Heine (World Bank): Fiscal Policies for Development & Climate Action

Background material: "Fiscal Policies for Development and Climate Action"

2:30-4:15 pm: Session 4: Climate Change, Central Banks and Financial Sectors

Roundtable discussion chaired by Nathalie Aufauvre (Banque de France) on how the central banks and financial authorities can contribute to the transition to a low-carbon economy. What regulatory measures can help mitigate risks posed by climate change to financial stability? Can sustainable investing—for instance through mutual funds that respect environmental, social and governance (ESG) standards—make a difference?

Chair: Nathalie Aufauvre (Banque de France)

Presentations: Warwick McKibbin (ANU), Climate Change and Monetary Policy: Dealing with Disruption

Background material: Climate change and monetary policy: Dealing with disruption

Pierre Monnin (CEP), Climate Change Challenges for Central Banks and Financial Regulators

Background material: "Central banks should reflect climate risks in monetary policy operations" and "Climate change challenges for central banks and financial regulators"

Discussants: Bertrand Candelon (ILB), Morgan Després (Banque de France), Filiz Unsal (IMF)

Background material: Discussion by Filiz Unsal

7:30 pm: Dinner at Salon de l’Hôtel des Arts et Métiers