Conflict Maps and Statistical Trends

Conflict Relationship and Interests Map

Violence and Degree of Radicalization

For this part of the research project, I tested data on whether or not the recorded incident of the subject was violent against the degree the subject was radicalized based on duration and strength of beliefs (1-10). The data was from the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism’s (START) PIRUS dataset. In total, it was found that 47% of the reported incidents were violent, while 53% were non-violent.

This even split is important because as the START dataset explains, violent acts of extremism are defined as "motivated operations/actions that resulted in causalities/injuries or clearly intended to result in causalities/injuries (but failed), or conspiracy to kill or injure but were interdicted in the plotting phase" (2023). Examples of violent operations/plots include murder, assault, armed robbery, kidnapping, bombing, and arson.

An interesting finding from the data study was how radicalization and violent acts of extremism did not share a significant relationship. Most of the results are unclear, which indicates that the Incel movement operates differently than other traditional extremist groups and is still a developing cause.

Group Membership and Sub-Ideology

For this part of the research project, I tested data on terrorist/extremist group membership and sub-ideological affiliation from the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism’s (START) PIRUS dataset.

The test indicated a statistically significant relationship between incels having additional sub-ideological beliefs and being linked to far-right movements. 93% of all incels had outside extremist ideology and 95% of all incels were affiliated with at least one terrorist/extremist group.

Severity of Attack and Criminal Activity

This part of the research project focuses on whether prior criminal activity had any influencing factors on how likely incels were to commit mass casualty attacks as well as if those attacks were successful. I tested data on prior criminal activity and mass casualty event incident factors from the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism’s (START) PIRUS dataset.

All statistical measurements indicated that the connection was significant. Some noteworthy results were the fact that the data pool had a 100% criminality rate. Additionally, when Incels were successful in committing a mass casualty attack, there was a 50% chance for 4 or more people to be killed.

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