Story of India, The Vishvaguru!
1991- 2024
In 1991, India faced a severe economic crisis, leading it to seek assistance from the IMF, marking the end of decades of socialist economic policies focused on self-sufficiency and state dominance. For years, India struggled with slow GDP growth of around 3.5%, high taxes, and extensive government control over industries, which limited its economic potential. The turning point came when India shifted towards liberalization and globalization, leading to sustained growth. Despite initial political opposition, subsequent reforms led to GDP growth averaging over 7% post-2003. By 2023, India’s per capita income had risen significantly, with poverty levels drastically reduced, establishing India as a global economic force.
Now, 10 years on, India's growth is outpacing other major economies, its banks are strong, and the government's finances are stable despite a painful pandemic. India surpassed the UK as the fifth largest economy last year and according to analysts at Morgan Stanley, it's on track to overtake Japan and Germany and hit the third spot by 2027.
Growth of the Dragon
1989 - 2024
China’s rise can be measured in many ways, but the most impressive number is the 700 million people that state-led reform has lifted from poverty over the past four decades. In 1986, China’s per capita GDP was $282. In 2016, it climbed above $8,100. The country’s middle class represented 4 percent of the population in 2002 and 31 percent in 2013. For the future, the Communist Party leadership says it can educate enough people, create enough jobs, stoke enough growth, and provide enough health care to boost 50 million more from the lowest income brackets by 2020. Despite predictions from many people over many years that a crash of China’s economy is long overdue, the world’s biggest emerging market and its aspirations remain aloft.
As shown in the chart, China's e surged from aroconomic growthund 4% in 1989 to over 14% in the early 1990s, driven by market reforms. Throughout the 1990s and early 2000s, growth fluctuated between 7-10%, peaking at over 14% in the mid-2000s following its WTO accession in 2001. The 2008 financial crisis caused a dip to below 5%, but China rebounded quickly, reaching over 10% growth by 2010. Growth slowed to around 6% by 2015, and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 caused a major contraction to -6%. By 2024, China’s growth stabilized at around 4-5%, reflecting its transition from export-led growth to a consumption-driven economy.