Artificial Intelligence
ADAPT: A Phased Plan for AI-Era Labor Displacement
August 2025 – Policy memorandum selected for the Anthropic Economic Futures Symposium
This policy memorandum proposes a phased response to AI-driven labor displacement: adapt existing workforce programs, broaden adjustment assistance, and build longer-term support for workers who cannot readily return to employment. It combines reemployment services and wage support with a framework for sharing returns to capital.
Monetary Policy
with Nina Boyarchenko, Richard K. Crump, and Leonardo Elias
May 17, 2023 – Liberty Street Economics
We use the Outlook-at-Risk framework to compare risks to inflation, growth, and unemployment across monetary-policy tightening cycles. As of May 2023, inflation risks had moderated, while risks of weaker growth and rising unemployment remained elevated.
with Nina Boyarchenko, Richard K. Crump, and Leonardo Elias
February 15, 2023 – Liberty Street Economics
We explain how to measure the range of possible outcomes for growth, unemployment, and inflation using financial conditions and economic forecasts. The approach distinguishes uncertainty about future outcomes from disagreement among forecasters.