April 16 2026, 12 PM ET

Pro-Natalist Housing Policy and Fertility

Tim Seida (Northwestern), Győző Gyöngyösi (Utrecht University), Ágnes Szabó Morvai (KRTK KTI) 

Abstract: This paper studies the effect of housing affordability on fertility using a large Hungarian pro-natalist housing policy. In 2019, Hungary expanded housing subsidies and mortgage support for families purchasing homes in small municipalities, with eligibility determined by a population cutoff of 5,000 residents. Exploiting the population threshold, a dynamic difference-in-differences design using linked census and administrative birth records compares women in eligible and ineligible settlements. Eligibility for the program increased fertility by 3.3% in the initial years after implementation. The results provide causal evidence that relaxing housing finance constraints increases fertility, and ongoing work examines housing market impacts. 

April 23 2026, 12 PM ET

Private Financing in U.S. Public-Private Partnerships

Devin Zhang (Penn State)

Abstract: Despite growing policy interest in public-private partnerships (P3s) and billions in federal subsidies, there is virtually no systematic evidence on how U.S. P3s are actually financed. I bridge this gap by constructing the first comprehensive, project-level dataset tracking private capital in U.S. infrastructure, covering over 1,400 P3 and traditional procurement projects across all major sectors from 1990 to 2022. The dataset disaggregates each project’s capital stack by funding source while simultaneously recording concession terms, delivery modes, and risk allocation. Using this data, I empirically characterize the economic determinants of private investment. First, federal credit instruments—Private Activity Bonds and TIFIA loans—are critical to securing financial close and are associated with higher private leverage, whereas direct federal grants exhibit near-complete crowd-out of private capital. Second, consistent with incomplete contracts theory, private financing intensity strongly predicts greater task bundling, confirming that financial commitment and operational control are complements. Furthermore, longer concession horizons enable significantly greater private capital shares. Finally, project risk shapes the debt-equity mix: construction risk reduces leverage while government-backed availability payments increase it, reflecting the core principles of project finance. 

April 30 2026, 12 PM ET

Climate Risk and Housing Market Turnover

Golnaz Bahrami (Penn State)

Abstract: I study how housing markets respond to climate risk using transaction-level data on residential property sales. Extreme heat does not primarily affect housing markets through immediate price adjustment. Instead, it reshapes market activity. In hotter years, homes are more likely to sell within one and two years, and time-to-sale shortens. Dynamic estimates show that these effects reflect accelerated reallocation: resale hazards rise sharply following heat shocks and subsequently decline as transactions are pulled forward. These patterns indicate that climate risk acts as a liquidity shock in an illiquid private market, increasing turnover and reallocating ownership before prices fully adjust. The results highlight the importance of studying quantities and timing to understand how private markets respond to risk.

May 7 2026, 12 PM ET

The Political Economy of Home Buying

Xinyu Cao (UBC), Jinfei Sheng (UC Irvine), Tianping Wu (UBC) 

Abstract: We examine whether partisanship shapes home purchase decisions using a novel dataset that links individual housing transactions to voter registration records in the United States from 2010 to 2023. We find that Republicans are twice as likely as Democrats to purchase homes and realize 0.69 percent higher housing returns compared to Democrats. Individuals are also significantly more likely to purchase a home when their affiliated party controls the White House, highlighting the role of partisan alignment in home-buying decisions. This alignment effect is stronger among male and younger voters. Importantly, partisan alignment also affects purchase timing: aligned buyers tend to accelerate their purchases, which is associated with lower subsequent returns. Evidence from survey data suggests that partisan alignment leads to more optimistic housing market expectations and influences home buying decisions through this expectations channel. These partisan-driven shifts in housing demand also have aggregate effects on local housing markets, leading to higher house prices but lower subsequent housing returns---a pattern consistent with belief-driven overvaluation. Overall, our findings highlight the role of partisanship in shaping housing market participation, timing, and prices. 

May 14 2026, 12 PM ET

Privatization, Financial Distress and Spillover Effects in Hospitals

Sungil Kim (Duke), Rui Guo (Florida)

Abstract: This paper examines how acquisitions affect hospital financial distress and its spillovers in the US. We first scrutinize the selection problem, and find limited evidence that financially distressed hospitals are significantly more/less likely to be acquired. Then, we find that acquisitions do raise distress for hospitals on average and in urban markets, while it declines for rural hospitals. We explore mechanisms behind the urban and rural differences, finding that private equity acquisitions are associated with a lower share of Medicare patients and a lower commercial to Medicare price ratio, especially in urban areas, suggesting that reductions in revenue from private insurers may explain higher distress among acquired hospitals. Finally, we investigate the spillover effects of acquisitions. Acquisitions within [0,10) miles raise distress among neighboring hospitals due to stronger competitive pressure, while acquisitions within [20,30) miles reduce it by greater efficiency gains at moderate distances. We find limited evidence of spillovers on profitability, operating costs, salaries, discharges, size, or efficiency. Overall, the results show that acquisitions generate heterogeneous consequences across markets and may increase distress for hospitals that rely heavily on private insurance revenue.