Abstract: This paper shows that incorporating what we call antidotal variables (AV) into a causal treatment effects analysis can with one cross-sectional regression identify the causal effect, the spillover, as well as possible biases from selectivity. We apply the AV technique to analyse leave taking arising from the California Paid Family Leave (CPFL) program. Our analysis yields about 2/3 the treatment effect of traditional DID methods, which we attribute to confounding effects (such as the Private Attorney General Act designed to increase enforcement of the labour code) and spillovers (arising from changes in women’s leave-taking in neighbouring states), neither of which are found in traditional studies.

Abstract: In this paper, I investigate the role of mainstream parties in shaping populist electoral success. I attempt to bridge the gap between micro-level theories of politician strategy and voter demands and macro-level theories of crisis and globalization through an understanding of the local party organization. I test my hypotheses by examining within-country variation in Japan across more than 1,000 municipalities and six lower house elections from 2000 to 2014, two of which occurred during the prime ministerial tenure of a maverick in the dominant party, the Liberal Democratic Party, who initiated an electoral referendum in 2005 using populist rhetoric to overturn a legislative decision. In addition, I ground the findings using case studies and elite interviews with politicians who faced divisions in the local party organization during the 2005 election. The findings show clear variation in voting patterns that are shaped by local organizational strength and contrary to simple a priori expectations of geographical interests. This paper contributes to literature on place-related determinants of populist support and questions existing views of the populist threat as uniquely tied to a particular ideology or the challenges of globalization.

Abstract: We examine whether higher family income affects the type of schools attended by the children. We access individual level census data for the entire population of Bolivia and other administrative datasets, and utilize a reform in the universal old age pension program initiated in the country in 2008 to estimate our effect. We show that the treated households are significantly more likely to enroll their primary school age children in private schools in the post-policy period, even though there is no overall effect on enrollment. The effect is primarily driven by higher educated households. We show that aggregate enrollment and average student performance in standardized tests increase in private schools relative to public schools in response to the policy. The performance effect results from higher quality students sorting into private schools, rather than improved learning. The results highlight that higher income can help families select better quality schools for their children, suggesting school quality is a normal good.

Abstract: This paper aims to explore drivers and dynamics of Thai agricultural households’ vicious cycle of debt, currently impeding their development prospects. We use unique combination of nationwide representative survey of 720 households and longitudinal administrative and financial account data from the farmer registration, the Bank of Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC) and the National Credit Bureau (NCB) to reflect households’ financial problems from the lens of monthly income and expenditure flows, their financial attitudes and use of financial services from all sources to smooth consumption and debt dynamics and repayment behavior. The paper also tries to renew our understanding since Siamwalla et al. (1990) on the economic problems in the Thai rural financial market and attempts to identify adverse impacts of debt moratorium policies, which are among the country’s most extensive policies aiming to help Thai agricultural households. The unique granularity and coverage of our data allow us to provide better understanding of the dynamics of problems and the heterogeneous patterns across households – necessary to shed some light for the redesign of the rural financial system and sustainable farmers’ debt policies.

Abstract: This study provides a holistic view of inclusive wealth accounting as a practical tool for guiding national and regional sustainable development policies. We explore how evolving wealth accounting methods can address data limitations and enhance policy design, offering insights into their application for equitable investment and sustainable growth across regions. Drawing on global and local case studies, the presentation examines the interaction between social-emotional learning (SEL) and human capital accumulation. By clustering 38 countries and assessing the potential impact of SEL on human capital within the inclusive wealth framework, we investigate regional disparities in human capital development. Our analysis highlights the critical roles of the population's education, health, and dynamic economic participation in shaping outcomes and emphasizes the need for targeted policies to address development gaps. Then, we focus on the municipal level and present findings from wealth assessments in Japan, revealing how value chain linkages contribute to imbalances in wealth accumulation and utilization across regions. These findings underscore the importance of designing local value chain mechanisms that promote capital complementarity and equitable development, balancing natural capital preservation with economic growth. The presentation addresses the design and optimization of socioeconomic systems, drawing on public economics to explore how policies can maximize human well-being and sustainable growth. Through comparative analysis and future-oriented recommendations, we demonstrate how inclusive wealth accounting can guide effective policy design and foster sustainable development across diverse regions.

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Abstract: The aim of the paper is to contribute to the debate on wage inequality in Japan by looking at the role of rent-sharing. The existing knowledge on rent-sharing drivers and asymmetries in Japan is very limited and we contribute to this research field by exploring the heterogeneity in rent-sharing associated with employers’ characteristics. Namely, we first explore differences in rent-sharing associated with a set of structural and workforce characteristics (firm size, age, share of managers, share of college workers) and with internationalisation processes (exports and FDI). We then focus our attention on the heterogeneity in rent-sharing between firms with high/low intensity of investments in intangible assets and digital technologies. The empirical analysis is based on employer-employee matched data obtained by combining the Basic Survey of Japanese Business Structure and Activities (BSJBSA) and the Basic Survey on Wage Structure (BSWS). The matching allows for the assembly of a large longitudinal firm-level dataset for the period 2005-2018 and for taking advantage of the many features of panel econometric techniques. The empirical methods used (IV models, split sample analysis) allow us to simultaneously shed light on a variety of relevant factors and address the many identification challenges related to endogeneity/reverse causality for key relationships.

Abstract: The reelection of Donald Trump as president of the United States poses tremendous challenges for Northeast Asia that may have permanent historical consequences for geopolitics. Trump has already surrounded himself with extremely narrow-minded political operatives who have no interest in universal norms and a strong desire to extract as much value from all interactions with other nations for themselves and for their friends. Whether it is the realm of security and international relations, trade, the control of technology and science, or the embrace of universal values, Northeast Asian nations face unprecedented challenges that will force a deep rethinking of priorities and goals. This presentation introduces the central figures in the second Trump administration and describes their individual, and collective, approach to Asia and the world.