This model simulates the infectious disease outbreak dynamics in a population influenced by different transmission rates, mortality, population mobility, and vaccination coverage. This model allows students to explore the effect of vaccination and the development of herd immunity.
Grades: 9-12;
The model starts with a human population consisting of susceptible (green color) and vaccinated (blue color) people. Once an infected case (orange color) appears in the population, it will pass the disease to one of the susceptible people nearby (within a radius of 1.5) at the defined transmission rate. The infected people can transmit the disease for 14 days. By the 15th day of being infected, the infected people die (disappear from the model) at the defined mortality or recover and become immunized (blue color).
Buttons, Sliders, and Switches:
The population size slider is self-explanatory. So are the buttons of Set up/Reset, Run/Pause, and Run a day.
The Vaccination-rate slider determined the vaccination coverage of the population.
The Transmission-rate slider determines how likely a susceptible person is infected when exposed to the disease.
The Mortality slider determines how likely the infected people die on the 15th day.
The +1 Infected Case button adds an infected person into the population.
The Watch 1 Infected Case button allows you to focus on a single infected person or stop watching the person. You may see this person eventually recover or die.
First, choose the factors, such as population size, transmission rate, etc.
Click on "Set up/Reset" then "Run/Pause." The model is initially set to stop on the 180th day. Change the number in "Time" if you want to run the model for a longer or shorter period.
Observe the infection changes in the population in the plot and monitor.
Use "Run one day" to run the model in a controlled way and collect day-by-day data.
THINGS TO TRY
There are so many things you can try in this model. Here are only very a few quick ideas:
Does the total of deaths change differ in a population where all people are susceptible vs. a potion of people are vaccinated? How?
What is the vaccination rate for achieving herd immunity?
Dr. Lin Xiang creates this module at the University of Kentucky in 2019. If you mention this model in a publication, we ask that you include the citations below.
Xiang, L. (2020). Infectious Disease Outbreak-Vaccination. Department of STEM Education, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY.
Questions? Comments? Email us.