This model simulates the infectious disease outbreak dynamics in a population influenced by different transmission rates, mortality, and human mobility.
Grades: 9-12;
This model simulates the infectious disease outbreak dynamics in a population influenced by different transmission rates, mortality, and human mobility.
Grades: 9-12;
The model starts with a human population in which all people are healthy but susceptible (green color) to the incoming pathogen. Once an infected case (orange color) appears in the population, it will pass the disease to one of the susceptible people nearby (within a radius of 1.5) at the defined transmission rate. The infected people are able to transmit the disease for 14 days. By the 15th day of being infected, the infected people either die (disappear from the model) at the defined mortality or recover and become immunized (blue color).
Buttons, Sliders, and Switches:
The “population-size” slider is self-explanatory. So are the buttons of “Set up/Reset”, “Run/Pause”, and “Run a day”.
The “Mobility” slider controls how far an individual can move each time. Smaller mobility means people come into contact with fewer other people.
The “Transmission-rate” slider determines how likely a susceptible person is infected when exposed to the disease.
The “Mortality” slider determines how likely the infected people die on the 15th day.
The “+1 infected Case” button adds an infected person into the population.
The “Watch 1 infected Case” button allows you to focus on a single infected person. You may see this person eventually recover or die.
First, choose the factors, such as population size, transmission rate, etc.
Click on "Set up/Reset", then "Run/Pause". The model is initially set to stop on the 180th day. Change the number in "Time" if you want to run the model for a longer or shorter time period.
Observe the infection changes in the population in the plot and monitors.
Use "Run one day" to run the model in a controlled way and collecting day-by-day data.
Dr. Lin Xiang creates this module at the University of Kentucky in 2019. If you mention this model in a publication, we ask that you include the citations below.
Xiang, L. (2020). Infectious Disease Outbreak-Transmission and Mortality. Department of STEM Education, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY.
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