Research

Working Papers

Does agriculture matter to rural economies? Evidence from agricultural multipliers in the EU (Click for the draft)

Abstract:

Does agriculture benefit rural economies? In this paper, I show the surprisingly limited economic contribution of agriculture across EU regions, including rural regions. Even in remote rural regions, the direct economic contribution of agriculture is smaller than that of the service sector, as measured by the Gross Value Added and employment. Yet, agriculture could still matter if it has large positive multiplier effects on local economies. To investigate this indirect channel, I estimate agricultural multipliers for employment and for income in EU regions using shift-share instruments. For employment, estimates show little effect of agriculture on other sectors. For income, rather than a positive effect, I find that agriculture may crowd out manufacturing activity. This negative effect is robust to different income indicators and alternative compositions of the shift-share instrument. These findings suggest that attempts to stimulate rural economies in the EU by supporting agriculture may be misguided.  

The effects of the Cohesion Policy and the Common Agricultural Policy on regional growth in the EU, with Alessandro Olper.

Abstract:

To be updated. 

Publications

Lee, H., & Van Cayseele, P. (Forthcoming). Market power, markup volatility and the role of cooperatives in the food value chain: Evidence from Italy. European Review of Agricultural Economics.

Abstract

Agricultural cooperatives are often promoted as a way to give farmers countervailing market power and greater income stability. This paper investigates to what extent cooperatives in food supply chains achieve these objectives. We estimate firm-level markups and markup volatility in the Italian fruits and vegetable (F&V) and dairy sectors at both the farming and processing stages for the period 2007–2014. We find mixed results: compared to non-cooperatives, F&V processor cooperatives have higher markups, while F&V farmer cooperatives and dairy processor cooperatives have lower markups. We do not find strong evidence of their role on markup volatility.

Garrone, M., Emmers, D., Lee, H., Olper, A., & Swinnen, J. (2019). Subsidies and agricultural productivity in the EU. Agricultural Economics, 50(6), 803-817. 

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between EU agricultural subsidies and agricultural labor productivity growth by estimating a conditional convergence growth model. We use more representative subsidy indicators and a wider coverage (panel data from 213 EU regions over the period 2004–2014) than have been used before. We find that, on average, EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) subsidies increase agricultural labor productivity growth, but this aggregate effect hides important heterogeneity of effects of different types of subsidies. The positive effect on productivity comes from decoupled subsidies, that is, Pillar I decoupled payments and some Pillar II payments. Coupled Pillar I subsidies have the opposite effect: they slow down productivity growth. 

Work in progress

Competition and relational contracts in local food supply chains, with Anusha De, Bjorn Van Campenhout, and Jo Swinnen.

Abstract coming soon.