Topical

What to expect from polls on the local elections in Turkey? Can we have accurate forecasts? What are the factors that dermine the elections? Are they the same in all elections and all times?

Polls may be partly deceptive not only due to lack of expertise or incompetence, but also due to extraordinary times. In local elections accuracy is more difficult. But in unstable economic milieu it is more difficult. Generally speaking, when economic conditions are excruciating, especially for the working classes or the deprived, economic factors become prominent amongst the factors that determine elections.

Figure 1: Two-yearly average growth rate and ruling AKP performance in elections

We have long observed that the average growth rate in the near past is very influential in election results. Furthermore, universally consumer sentiment can increase or reduce the support of the governing political party in elections.

Figure 2: Consumer Confidence Index and ruling AKP performance in elections

We expect that in the coming local elections both the declining growth rate and the low level of consumer sentiment will cause a significant decline of votes for the ruling party in the coming elections. Yet we can hardly assess whether this loss of support will result in a gain of votes of the opposition or a failure of turnout in elections.

As there are alliances, it is difficult to distinguish the individual voting performance for each political party. Nevertheless, we expect that AK Party as the legal ruling political party, will lose a lot of political support as seen in both figures. (Note: the current Consumer Confidence Index level is 70,3.

8 March 2019