Research
Working Papers
"Flight to Liquidity or Safety? Recent Evidence from the Municipal Bond Market"
with M. Blake Marsh, Updated January 2022.
Media coverage: Brookings, The Bond Buyer"Sovereign Risk and Fiscal Information: A Look at the U.S. State Default in the 1840s"
with Nora Traum, Updated January 2020.
Online Appendix"Analyze Fiscal Sustainability"
with Eric Leeper, June 2014.
Publications
"Public Pension Reforms and Retirement Decision: Narrative Evidence and Aggregate Implications"
with Sarah Zubairy, forthcoming at the AEJ Economic Policy.
Paper Download"Unconventional Monetary Policy and Local Fiscal Policy"
with Nora Traum, European Economic Review, July 2023.
Paper Download"Credit Guarantee and Fiscal Costs"
with Yongquan Cao and Wei Dong, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, February 2023.
Paper Download"Fiscal Implications of Interest Rate Normalization"
with Wenyi Shen and Susan Yang, Canadian Journal of Economics, April 2022.
Paper Download"Sovereign Default and Monetary Policy Tradeoffs"
with Eric Leeper and Campbell Leith, International Journal of Central Banking, June 2018.
Paper Download"Debt-Dependent Effects of Fiscal Expansions"
with Wenyi Shen and Susan S.C. Yang, European Economic Review, 88, September 2016: 142-157.
Paper Download"Estimating Fiscal Limits: The Case of Greece"
with Nora Traum, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 29(7), November/December 2014: 1053-72.
Paper Download Online Appendix"Uncertain Fiscal Consolidations"
with Eric Leeper and Campbell Leith, Economic Journal, 123(566), February 2013: F31-F63.
Paper Download"Estimating Sovereign Default Risk"
with Nora Traum, American Economic Review Papers & Proceedings, 102(3), May 2012: 161-66."Sovereign Default Risk Premia, Fiscal Limits, and Fiscal Policy"
European Economic Review, 56(3), April 2012: 389-410.
Paper Download Code Download: (1) (2)"Jointly Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy Rules under Liquidity Constraints"
with Michael Kumhof, Journal of Macroeconomics, 33, September 2011: 373-389.
Discussions
"Monetary-fiscal Policy Interactions When Price Stability Occasionally Takes a Back Seat'' by Sebastian Schmidt, CEBRA, New York, July 2023.
"Trade Policy Uncertainty, Monetary Policy, and the Business Cycle'' by Alexander Dietrich and Gernot Mueller, Heidelberg-Tuebingen-Hohenheim Workshop On International Financial Markets, Heidelberg, Germany, December 2019.
"Fiscal Stimulus under Sovereign Risk'' by Javier Bianchi, Pablo Ottonello, and Ignacio Presno
CEBRA, New York, July 2019."Decentralization and Over-Borrowing in a Fiscal Federation'' by Si Guo, Yun Pei, and Zoe Xie
Federal Reserve System Macroeconomics Workshop, FRB of Dallas, May 2019."Risk and Expectations in Exchange Rates: Evidence from Cross-Country Yield Curves'' by Yu-chin Chen, Byunghoon Nam, and Kwok Ping Tsang, ASSA Annual Meeting, Chicago, January 2017.
"A Model of the Twin Ds: Optimal Default and Devaluation'' by Seunghoon Na, Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe, Martin Uribe, and Vivian Yue, ECB Conference on Fiscal Policy During and After the Crisis, Frankfurt, Germany, November 2016.
"Exit Expectations in Currency Unions'' by Alexander Kirwoluzky, Gernot Mueller, and Martin Wolf
Swiss National Bank-Center for Economic Policy Research Conference on Exchange Rates and External Adjustment, Zurich, Switzerland, June 2014.