[Document de Travail]

Abstract:

We investigate Political Business Cycles during national elections across European Union countries and their sub-national regions from 1995 to 2022, with a focus on the role of national and supranational fiscal rules. Our findings show robust evidence that national elections are linked to higher regional public spending and lower revenues from income and wealth taxes. While strong fiscal rules tend to constrain or have limited effect on spending-related PBCs, they simultaneously incentivize tax-based fiscal manipulation, indicating a shift in electoral strategies from expenditure to taxation. This pattern holds across most European countries at both national and regional levels, with variations depending on specific electoral and political systems. We also show that right-wing incumbents engage in both public spending and tax-based opportunistic PBCs, while left-wing incumbents primarily focus on tax-based manipulations. Furthermore, newly elected left-wing incumbents pursue fiscal conservatism, whereas right-wing incumbents typically maintain the fiscal status quo.

Keywords:

Elections; Fiscal rules; National and sub-national governments 

JEL Classification:

D72; E62; O52

Abstract:

We examine the predictions of political business cycle theories using a large dataset covering detailed information on intergovernmental transfers and tax categories for German municipalities. Our findings provide clear evidence of partisan behavior in local tax policy: municipalities reduce tax burdens during election periods. This pattern suggests an attempt by incumbents to project competence and improve their electoral prospects.

Keywords:

Election cycle; Regional politics; Local investment; Local taxes; Germany

JEL Classification:

[Document de Travail]

Abstract:

This research investigates the catalytic effects of loans granted by international organizations and their interplay with geopolitical alignment to United Nations Security Council (UNSC) permanent members. Using a monthly dataset, we first analyze how loan approvals by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) influence financial conditions in UNSC non-permanent members states. Our findings confirm the existence of a catalytic effect in these countries for loans provided by the ADB and the IMF, particularly observable in exchange rate dynamics. Second, we contribute to the literature by demonstrating that a country's geopolitical alignment with UNSC permanent members plays a crucial role in shaping the magnitude and direction of these effects. We measure geopolitical alignment using voting distances between UNSC non-permanent and permanent members in the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). Notably, we highlight that China-US tensions arise primarily from specific UNGA decisions, while Russia-US tensions reflect broader geopolitical rivalries. This distinction significantly impacts the catalytic effect, regardless of the financial variables under consideration.

Keywords:

International institutions; United Nations; Geopolitical preferences; Catalytic effect; Finance

JEL Classification:

D78; F30; F42

Abstract:

This paper studies the Trading Card Games (TCG) market. More specifically, the idea is to highlight the main determinants that drive individuals to buy playing cards by studying 3 main transmission channels. Firstly, cards can be bought for their "sporting" value, with their value fluctuating according to their use by players in a competitive context. Secondly, cards can be bought for their "nostalgic" value, in which case they are collected and their value fluctuates according to their importance in people's memories. Thirdly, cards can be purchased for their "economic" value, in which case they represent an investment comparable to the purchase of any financial asset. To study these different transmission channels, we mobilize a database of Yu-Gi-Oh! TCG cards from the YGOProDeck website (https://ygoprodeck.com/) and card prices from the CardMarket website (https://www.cardmarket.com/en/YuGiOh/), which enable us to analyze fluctuations in card prices over several months/weeks. We are therefore able to test the different transmission channels as follows: (i) the "sporting" value is measured through the use of the cards during the latest big professional tournaments (notably the Championship Series); (ii) the "nostalgic" value via the occurrence of the cards within the various animated series and the Yu-Gi-Oh! manga that accompanies the game and (iii) the "economic" value is measured according to the fluctuation in the prices of the cards, notably the most expensive ones.

Résumé : 

Cette étude vise à examiner si l’occurrence d'événements climatiques extrêmes influence la popularité des partis politiques se revendiquant écologistes. L'impact des catastrophes naturelles sur la vie politique fait déjà l’objet de certaines études concluant notamment qu’elles ont tendance à augmenter la probabilité de réélection du parti au pouvoir (Masiero et Santarossa, 2021) ; qu’elles modifient le comportement des élus (Elliott et al. 2022) ou encore qu’elles ont un effet limité sur les scores électoraux des partis écologistes (Hilbig et Riaz, 2024). Néanmoins, aucune étude n'a étudié directement l’impact des catastrophes naturelles sur la popularité des partis. Dans cette étude, nous testerons l’hypothèse selon laquelle la matérialisation des catastrophes naturelles stimule la popularité des partis "verts". 

Nous supposons que cette augmentation de la popularité des partis écologistes est liée à une prise de conscience accrue des risques climatiques à venir lorsque les électeurs sont exposés à des évènements climatiques extrêmes. À l'inverse, les candidats se revandiquant climato-sceptiques devraient, par le raisonnement inverse, connaître une diminution de leur popularité.