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How do human decisions shape, and get shaped by, the spread of disease and addiction?
I build network models in which individual behavior and social structure change in response to one another, calibrate them against population-scale health data, and use them to evaluate intervention strategies. When people change their behavior because of who they know, and then change who they know because of their behavior, the resulting feedback produces sharp thresholds: an intervention that looks adequate on paper can fail entirely, or succeed suddenly, depending on where the system sits relative to a critical boundary. Much of my work is about locating those boundaries and understanding what moves them.
The work proceeds on three levels. At the level of mechanism, I use evolutionary game theory and multi-agent reinforcement learning to ask which incentive structures and which learned policies sustain cooperation when individual rationality would undermine it. This is where intervention strategies are designed and stress-tested before they meet data. At the level of measurement, I develop estimation methods for relational data and for populations that standard sampling cannot reach, on the view that a model calibrated against badly measured networks answers a question no one asked. At the level of application, these two come together: I study vaccination decisions, substance use, and epidemic response in observed populations, using simulation and machine learning to ask which interventions actually carry a system across a threshold rather than stalling short of one. A further line of survey research on health attitudes and institutional context supplies the population-level regularities these models are built to reproduce.
Current work extends the framework in two directions. The first is toward operational forecasting: behavior-adaptive digital twins for epidemic and opioid response, developed with undergraduate research teams at Lehigh. The second is toward network-targeted intervention design, using reinforcement learning to identify which points in a prescribing or contact network to act on, and when. Both are aimed at the same thing — turning threshold structure from an explanation into a decision rule.
Selected Work
Selected Work
Eight papers chosen to show the arc of the program rather than its full extent. The complete list of 41 peer-reviewed articles is in my CV and on Google Scholar.
Social Clustering in Epidemic Spread on Coevolving Networks Hsuan-Wei Lee, Nishant Malik, Feng Shi, and Peter J. Mucha — Physical Review E, 99, 062301 (2019) Establishes the coevolving-network framework the rest of the program is built on. Co-developed the model and led the analytical treatment of clustering effects.
Evolving Cognitive Environment Drives Critical Transitions in Voluntary Vaccination Dynamics Hsuan-Wei Lee and Mao-Chieh Chin — Proceedings of the Royal Society B, accepted (2027) First and corresponding author. Shows that when the cognitive environment coevolves with vaccination behavior, coverage undergoes critical transitions rather than responding smoothly to incentives.
Phase Boundaries and Critical Transitions in Coupled Epidemic–Behavioral Systems Hsuan-Wei Lee and Vincent Cheng-Sheng Li — Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 87, 179 (2025) Maps the phase boundaries separating epidemic containment from persistence when behavior and transmission are coupled, making the threshold structure above analytically explicit.
Adaptive Network Dynamics and Behavioral Contagion in Multi-State Drug Use Propagation Hsuan-Wei Lee, Yi-Hsuan Huang, and Nishant Malik — Chaos, Solitons and Fractals, 202, 117462 (2026) First and corresponding author. Extends the adaptive-network framework to multi-state substance use and locates the boundaries separating containment from persistence.
Q-Learning–Driven Adaptive Rewiring for Cooperative Control in Heterogeneous Networks Yi-Ning Weng and Hsuan-Wei Lee — Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, 169, 114024 (2026) Corresponding and senior author. Shows that agents learning when to rewire, rather than following fixed rules, sustain cooperation across network heterogeneity that defeats static strategies.
Shaping Network Structures in Evolutionary Games for Stronger Cooperation Ruey-An Shiu and Hsuan-Wei Lee — Proceedings of the Royal Society A, 481(2322), 20250346 (2025) Corresponding and senior author on an undergraduate student's thesis work. Designed the structural intervention mechanism and supervised all analysis.
An Item Response Model for Rating Relational Data Chih-Han Leng, Ulf Böckenholt, Hsuan-Wei Lee, and Grace Yao — Psychometrika, 90(3), 1067–1096 (2025) Developed the estimation strategy for the relational item response model and conducted the simulation study establishing its recovery properties.
Science Communication during the Pandemic: Examining Health Professionals' COVID-19 Related Tweets Yao-Tai Li, Man-Lin Chen, and Hsuan-Wei Lee — Social Science and Medicine, 347, 116748 (2024) Designed the network and text-analytic pipeline linking communication structure to message reach.
Recent Work in Figures
Selected papers with a representative figure from each, most recent first.
Evolving Cognitive Environment Drives Critical Transitions in Voluntary Vaccination Dynamics, Hsuan-Wei Lee and Mao-Chieh Chin, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, accepted (2027).
Message Timing Outperforms Message Intensity for Cost-Effective Epidemic Control, Zijian Wang, Zikang Wang, and Hsuan-Wei Lee, Applied Mathematical Modelling, Volume 161, 117139 (2027).
Measuring the Impact of Climate Factors and Air Quality on COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics: A Tale of Two Cities in Pandemic Preparedness, Gayathry R. Menon, Sayooj Aby Jose, Asaph Young Chun, Anuwat Jirawattanapanit, and Hsuan-Wei Lee, BMC Public Health, http://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-026-27995-w (2026).
Donor Motivation and Civil Society Regimes From a Cross-Cultural and Institutional Perspective, Hsin-Yu Hung and Hsuan-Wei Lee, Voluntas: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations, 37(3):342-357 (2026).
Modeling Competing Narratives in Adaptive Networks: How Social Pressure and Network Dynamics Drive Tipping and Persistence, Hsiu-Chi Lu and Hsuan-Wei Lee, Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, doi: 10.1057/s41599-026-08287-5 (2026).
Dissipative Quantum Dynamics in Static Networks with Different Topologies, Wei-Yang Liu and Hsuan-Wei Lee, New Journal of Physics, 28 034505 (2026).
Q-Learning–Driven Adaptive Rewiring for Cooperative Control in Heterogeneous Networks, Yi-Ning Weng and Hsuan-Wei Lee, Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, Volume 169, 114024 (2026).
Transitional Justice and Health, Happiness, and Solidarity: An Analysis of the 2020 National Survey in Taiwan, Ming-Jui Yeh, Ching Kuan, and Hsuan-Wei Lee, International Journal of Social Determinants of Health and Health Services, 27551938261442799 (2026).
Personal Cancer Worry and Systemic Cancer Concern: Pathways to Health Behaviors via Social Media and Emotional Well-Being, Chi-Chin Hsiao and Hsuan-Wei Lee, Computers in Human Behavior, Volume 178, 108918 (2026).
Adaptive Network Dynamics and Behavioral Contagion in Multi-State Drug Use Propagation, Hsuan-Wei Lee, Yi-Hsuan Huang, and Nishant Malik, Chaos, Solitons and Fractals: the Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, and Nonequilibrium and Complex Phenomena, Volume 202, 117462 (2026).
Context-Sensitive Norm Enforcement Reduces Sanctioning Costs in Spatial Public Goods Games, Hsuan-Wei Lee, Colin Cleveland, and Attila Szolnoki, Applied Mathematics and Computation, Volume 508, 129626 (2026).
Phase Boundaries and Critical Transitions in Coupled Epidemic–Behavioral Systems, Hsuan-Wei Lee and Vincent Cheng-Sheng Li, Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, Volume 87, 179 (2025).
Strategy Configuration Determines Interaction Patterns in Partner-Switching Evolutionary Games, Hsuan-Wei Lee and Chen-Wei Xu, Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, Volume 483, 134971 (2025).
Shaping Network Structures in Evolutionary Games for Stronger Cooperation, Ruey-An Shiu and Hsuan-Wei Lee, Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 481(2322), 20250346 (2025).
Granular Q-Learning Adaptation Boosts Collective Welfare in Multi-Agent Prisoner’s Dilemma, Hsuan-Wei Lee and Yi-Ning Weng, Chaos, Solitons and Fractals: the Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, and Nonequilibrium and Complex Phenomena, Volume 199, 116642 (2025).
Evolution of Cooperation in Spatial Public Goods Games with Migration and Interactive Diversity, Zehua Si, Takayuki Ito, and Hsuan-Wei Lee, Applied Mathematics and Computation, Volume 506, 129544 (2025).
A Theoretical Analysis of How Multiple Leadership and Flattened Status Structures Affect Cooperation in Task Groups, Hsuan-Wei Lee, Yen-Ping Chang, and Yen-Sheng Chiang, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Volume 28 (3) (2025).
An Item Response Model for Rating Relational Data, Chih-Han Leng, Böckenholt Ulf, Hsuan-Wei Lee, and Grace Yao, Psychometrika, 90(3), 1067-1096 (2025).
Enhancing Cooperation in Dynamic Networks through Reinforcement-Learning-Based Rewiring Strategies, Hsuan-Wei Lee, Szu-Ping Chen, and Feng Shi, New Journal of Physics, 27 013025 (2025).
Triadic Balance and Network Evolution: Predictive Modeling with Signed Networks, Hsuan-Wei Lee, Pei-Chin Lu, Hsiang-Chuan Sha, and Hsini Huang, Scientific Reports, 15:2544 (2025).
The Feasibility of Utilizing the Open Dynamic Interaction Network (ODIN) App to Assess rEMA Data across 30 Days among Those Recovering from Alcohol Use Disorders, Dennis E. McChargue, Bilal Khan, Jessica Phelps, Patrick Duryea, Kimberly A. Tyler, Arthur Andrews, Ellie Reznicek, Lucy Napper, Mohamed Saad, and Hsuan-Wei Lee, Drug and Alcohol Dependence Reports, Volume 14, 100305 (2025).
Agents of Discord: Modeling the Impact of Political Bots on Opinion Polarization in Social Networks, Hsiu-Chi Lu and Hsuan-Wei Lee, Social Science Computer Review, 43(4), 750-772 (2025).
Suppressing Defection by Increasing Temptation: the Impact of Smart Cooperators on a Social Dilemma Situation, Hsuan-Wei Lee, Colin Cleveland, and Attila Szolnoki, Applied Mathematics and Computation, Volume 479, 128864 (2024).
Science Communication during the Pandemic: Examining Health Professionals' COVID-19 Related Tweets, Yao-Tai Li, Man-Lin Chen, and Hsuan-Wei Lee, Social Science and Medicine, Volume 347, 116748 (2024).
Supporting Punishment via Taxation in a Structured Population, Hsuan-Wei Lee, Colin Cleveland, and Attila Szolnoki, Chaos, Solitons, and Fractals: the Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, and Nonequilibrium and Complex Phenomena, Volume 178, 114385 (2024).
Restoring Spatial Cooperation with Myopic Agents in a Three-Strategy Social Dilemma, Hsuan-Wei Lee, Colin Cleveland, and Attila Szolnoki, Applied Mathematics and Computation, Volume 458, 128226 (2023).
Group-size Dependent Synergy in Heterogeneous Populations, Hsuan-Wei Lee, Colin Cleveland, and Attila Szolnoki, Chaos, Solitons and Fractals: the Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, and Nonequilibrium and Complex Phenomena, Volume 167, 113055 (2023).
Quality of Life in Multiple Scenarios: The Impact of Work Mode and Social Contact Quantity, Cheng-Han Leng, Chi-Shiun Tsai, Ta-Chien Chan, and Hsuan-Wei Lee, Frontiers in Psychology, 14:1018415 (2023).
When Costly Migration Helps to Improve Cooperation, Hsuan-Wei Lee, Colin Cleveland, and Attila Szolnoki, Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 32(9), 093103 (2022).
Determinants of Personal Vaccination Hesitancy before and after the Mid-2021 COVID-19 Outbreak in Taiwan, Hsuan-Wei Lee, Cheng-Han Leng, and Ta-Chien Chan, PLOS ONE, 17.7: e0270349 (2022).
Mercenary Punishment in Structured Populations, Hsuan-Wei Lee, Colin Cleveland, and Attila Szolnoki, Applied Mathematics and Computation, Volume 417, 126797 (2022).
From Indirect to Direct Contacts on Facebook: A Big-data Approach to the Making of Triadic Network Closure, Hsuan-Wei Lee, Ming-Yi Chang, Wan-Yu Chou, Jing-Shiang Hwang, and Yang-Chih Fu, Canadian Review of Sociology, 59(2), 207-227 (2022).
Small Fraction of Selective Cooperators Can Elevate General Wellbeing Significantly, Hsuan-Wei Lee, Colin Cleveland, and Attila Szolnoki, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Volume 582, 126222 (2021).
Daily Contacts Under Quarantine amid Limited Spread of COVID-19 in Taiwan, Yang-Chih Fu and Hsuan-Wei Lee, International Journal of Sociology, Volume 50, Issue 5, Pages 434–444 (2020).
Social Clustering in Epidemic Spread on Coevolving Networks, Hsuan-Wei Lee, Nishant Malik, Feng Shi, and Peter J. Mucha, Physical Review E, 99, 062301 (2019).
Mapping the Structure of Perceptions in Helping Networks of Alaska Natives, Hsuan-Wei Lee, Miranda Melson, Jerreed Ivanich, Patrick Habecker, G. Robin Gauthier, Lisa Wexler, Bilal Khan, and Kirk Dombrowski, PLOS ONE, doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0204343 (2018).
Agency and Social Constraint among Victims of Domestic Minor Sex Trafficking: A Method for Measuring Free Will, Bilal Khan, Hsuan-Wei Lee, Courtney R. Thrash, and Kirk Dombrowski, Social Science Research, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssresearch.2018.06.007 (2018).
One-step Estimation of Networked Population Size: Respondent-Driven Capture-Recapture with Anonymity, Bilal Khan, Hsuan-Wei Lee, Ian Fellows, and Kirk Dombrowski, PLOS ONE, 13(4), e0195959 (2018).
Models, Methods and Network Topology: Experimental Design for the Study of Interference, Jake Bowers, Bruce A. Desmarais, Mark Frederickson, Nahomi Ichino, Hsuan-Wei Lee, and Simi Wang, Social Networks, Volume 54, Pages 196-208 (2018).
Evolutionary prisoner’s dilemma games coevolving on adaptive networks, Hsuan-Wei Lee, Nishant Malik, and Peter J. Mucha, Journal of Complex Networks, DOI: 10.1093/comnet/cnx018 (2018).
Transitivity Reinforcement in the Coevolving Voter Model, Nishant Malik, Feng Shi, Hsuan-Wei Lee, and Peter J. Mucha, Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 26.12: 123112 (2016).
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