Research

• Windfall Gains and Stock Market Participation: Evidence from Shopping Receipt Lottery (with Tzu-Chang Forrest Cheng, Tse-Chun Lin, Tzu-Ting Yang and Jian-Da Zhu), Journal of Banking and Finance

Abstract: This paper utilizes receipt lotteries in Taiwan, along with comprehensive administrative data, to examine the effect of cash windfalls on stock market participation and portfolio diversification, which can help us understand whether wealth levels serve as the explanation for the limited participation and under-diversification puzzles in stock markets. The results indicate that each million TWD (approximately 33,000 USD) windfall gain from winning receipt lotteries increases the probability of stock market participation by 1.09 percentage points. This effect is primarily driven by individuals who were not participating in the stock market prior to winning. For existing participants, each million TWD windfall increases the total value of stocks by 142,552 TWD, attributed to both an increase in their number of shares and higher average prices of the stocks they hold. Additionally, we find that individuals do not significantly diversify their portfolios after winning the lottery, suggesting that wealth level is not the primary reason for under-diversification.

• Unpacking the STEM Gender Gap: Evidence from Taiwan (with Ian Fillmore, Hao-Chung Li, and Hsienming Lien), R&R in Journal of Human Capital

Abstract: Women enroll in science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) fields less often than men.  Using Taiwanese data from 2011-2018 we unpack the drivers of this gap, and find the gap in STEM enrollment largely reflects a gap in applications. Conditional on applying, women are as likely to be admitted as comparable men.  We then explore the gap in STEM applications, and find one-third can be explained by math and science scores. The gap in STEM applications also differs widely across high schools, suggesting that educational institutions and social factors play a role in shaping women's interests in STEM.

• When Perception Meets Reality: Ability Gaps, Belief Updating, and Track Choice in High School Transitions (Job Market Paper)

Abstract: This paper studies how students form beliefs about their academic ability and how these beliefs shape high-stakes educational decisions under uncertainty. Using longitudinal data from the Taiwan Education Panel Survey, I construct an empirical measure of belief gaps by comparing student-perceived ability—based on GPA and exam scores—with researcher-estimated latent ability—derived from survey test scores not disclosed to students. I show that belief misalignments predict school track choices, re-selection behavior, and college entrance exam performance. Underestimation is associated with lower within-school rank, greater likelihood of regret, and weaker academic returns, while overestimation leads to higher within-school rank with fewer adverse consequences. To interpret these patterns and quantify underlying mechanisms, I develop a model in which students choose school tracks to maximize expected utility given their perceived ability, peer environment, and school quality. The findings show that subjective beliefs, not just objective skill, drive sorting outcomes. Underestimation leads to persistent academic losses, while overestimation shifts students upward in rank with modest consequences. By shaping who advances and who falls behind, these distortions make belief formation itself a hidden mechanism of long-run inequality in education.

• Liquidity Constraints, Cash Windfalls and Entrepreneurship: Evidence from Administrative Data on Lottery Winners (with Hsing-Wen Han, Kuang-Ta Lo and Tzu-Ting Yang), Under Review

Abstract: Using administrative data on Taiwanese lottery winners, this paper examines the effects of cash windfalls on entrepreneurship. We compare the start-up decisions of households winning more than 1.5 million NT$ (50,000 US$) in the lottery in a particular year with those of households winning less than 15,000 NT$ (500 US$). Our results suggest that a substantial windfall increases the likelihood of starting a business by 1.5 percentage points (125% from the baseline mean). Startup wealth elasticity is 0.25 to 0.36. Moreover, households who tend to be liquidity-constrained drive the windfall-induced entrepreneurial response. Finally, we examine how households with a business react to a cash windfall and find that serial entrepreneurs are more likely to start a new business but do not change their decision to continue the current business.

• Centralized College Choice and Risk Aversion of Application: Evidence from Taiwan General Scholastic Ability Test

• Dose Fine of Refusing Breath-test Reduce the Drunken Driving: Evidence from Taipei City Police Department Statistics in Taiwan

• Cash for Habit: Evaluation of a Smart Energy Saving Project in Taiwan, Master Project, National Taiwan University (Advisor: Jian-Da Zhu)

Abstract: This paper evaluates a large-scale project raised a habit of reducing electricity usage in Taiwan from April 2015 to March 2016. Using electricity consumption records at village level from Taipower company, we find it did reduce average households and population electricity consumption by 0.5 percent to 0.7 percent. However, the habit of reducing electricity consumption did not worked in a lone-term way after the project finished. Overall, the project was a cost way to lower the electricity usage at average 9 NTD(i.e around 0.3 USD) per kilowatt.

• Does Being Wealthy Make You Donate: Evidence from Lottery Winners in Taiwan (with Hsing-Wen Han, Kuang-Ta Lo, and Tzu-Ting Yang)

• Windfall Gains and Housing Allocation: Evidence from Lottery Winners in Taiwan (with Tzu-Chang Forrest Cheng, Tzu-Ting Yang, and Jian-Da Zhu)