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FAQ
How are these probabilities/brackets determined?
Good question! First, I determine all possible brackets based on the current standings and points (when the process is run). Next, win probabilities are determined (at the series level) via a machine learning model, based on each team's performance statistics such as Opponent Strength (strength of schedule proxy), percent differences in shots and goals, shot and save percentages as well as power play and penalty kill percentages. Lastly, I simulated 10,000 brackets using these probabilities and got the results in the image. The color represents the win probability of each matchup (the greener the better) and the size of the bars represent the occurrences across all the simulated brackets.