Publications

🚩: Hyojung Lee is either the first author or the corresponding author.

* : equal contribution

Submitted

• 1. 🚩(Submitted, 2025.4) Geunsoo Jang, Giphil Cho, Jeonghwa Seo, Hiroshi Nishiura, Hyojung Lee, Developing heat-risk warning criteria using machine learning for regional heat-related illness estimation

  2. 🚩(Submitted, 2025.4) Su Hyun Kim*, Geunsoo Jang*, Yeonsu Lee, Sijin Lee, Huiyoung Hwang, Hyojung Lee, Optimal Work and Sleep-Wake Schedules to Minimize Fatigue Among Rotating Night Shift Nurses: Evidence from Mathematical Modeling

  3. 🚩(Submitted, 2025.4) Wasim Abbas*, Yeonsu Lee*, Sangil Kim, Hyojung Lee Seasonal Influenza Dynamics in Korea Before and After COVID-19: Parameter Estimation using the Ensemble Kalman Filter Method

  4. 🚩(Submitted, 2025.4) Geunsoo Jang, Su Min Park, Yongin Choi, Sung June Choi, and Hyojung Lee, Effective strategies for managing intensive care unit bed capacity during the COVID-19 pandemic

  5. 🚩(Under review) Changdae Son+, Hyosun Lee+, Sunmi Lee*, and Hyojung Lee*, COVID-19 Outbreaks, Mobility Patterns, and the Impact of Social Distancing: A Study of South Korea’s Pandemic Response, Scientific Reports

  6. (Submitted) A History-Dependent Approach for Accurate Initial Condition Estimation in Epidemic Models

  7. 🚩 (Under review) Seungheon Yi, Kyeong Tae Ko, Mijin Ha, Sangmin Park, Janghun Oh, Ji-Hun Yoon and Hyojung Lee, Economic Impact on Industries Using Card Transaction Data During the COVID-19 Pandemic in South Korea, Scientific Reports

  8. 🚩(Under-review) Tobhin Kim+, Hyojung Lee+, Changhoon Kim, Hyunjin Son, Sunmi Lee, Quantifying Key Epidemiological Parameters and Evaluating the Impact of COVID-19 Control Measures, Mathematical Biosciences

  Publications

2025

• 1. 🚩 Geunsoo Jang, Jeonghwa Seo, and Hyojung Lee, Analyzing the impact of COVID-19 on seasonal infectious disease outbreak detection using hybrid SARIMAX-LSTM model, accpeted in Journal of Infection and Public Health, 2025. Paper (Top 10%)

  2. 🚩 Geunsoo Jang, Jihyeon Kim, Robin N. Thompson, and Hyojung Lee, Modeling vaccination prioritization strategies for post-pandemic COVID-19 in the Republic of Korea accounting for under-reporting and age-structure, Journal of Infection and Public Health, 2025. Paper (Top 10%)

2024

• 3. 🚩 Geunsoo Jang*, Seunghyeon Hong*, Janghun Oh, Young-Il Kim, Minkyoung Kim*, and Hyojung Lee*, Statistical Analysis of the association between El Niño and the Biological Carbon Pump in East Sea (Japan Sea), Scientific Reports, 2024. Paper

  4. Wasim Abbas , Sajida Parveen , Masud M A , Hyojung Lee and Sangil Kim *, Data-driven analysis of the effect of screening and treatment on the spread of HIV in developing and developed countries, Frontiers in Public Health, 2024. Paper

  5. Hyukpyo Hong*, Eunjin Eom*, Hyojung Lee, Sunhwa Choi*, Boseung Choi*, Jae Kyoung Kim*, Overcoming Bias in Estimating Epidemiological Parameters: A Bayesian Approach with Realistic History-Dependent Disease Spread Dynamics, Nature communications, 2024. Paper (Top 2%)

  6. Jaewoo Hwang, Hyojung Lee, Sunmi Lee, Bongsoo Jang, Ying-Cheng Lai, Younghae Do, Comprehensive risk management of infectious diseases, Chaos, Solitons and Fractals, 2024. Paper

  7. 🚩 Kyeong Tae Ko, Janghun Oh, Changdae Son, Yongin Choi*, and Hyojung Lee*, Identifying the risk clusters for African Swine Fever in Korea via statistical analysis, Frontiers in Veterinary Science, 2024.  Paper

  8. 🚩 Geunsoo Jang, Jihyeon Kim, Yeonsu Lee, Changdae Son, Kyeong Tae Ko, and Hyojung Lee, Analysis of the impact of COVID-19 variants and vaccination on the time-varying reproduction number: Statistical methods, Frontiers in Public Health, 2024, Paper

  9. Hyunwoo Lee, Hayoung Choi, Hyojung Lee, Sunmi Lee and Changhoon Kim, Uncovering COVID-19 Transmission Tree: Identifying Reported and Unreported Infections in an Infection Network, Frontiers in Public Health, 2024. Paper

  10. 🚩 Hyeonjeong Ahn, Hyoung Lee, Predicting the transmission trend in COVID-19: an interpretable machine learning approach on daily cases, deaths, and imported cases, Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2024. Paper

  11. Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov, Sung-mok Jung, Hyojung Lee, Natalie M. Linton, Yichi Yang, Baoyin Yuan and Hiroshi Nishiura, Reconstruction and analysis of the transmission network of African swine fever in People’s Republic of China, August 2018–September 2019, Epidemiology and Infection, 2024. Paper

  12. (KCI)🚩 Giphil Cho, Jeonghwa Seo, Hyojung Lee, Improving norovirus outbreak prediction through feature selection using machine learning methods, Journal of the Korean Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, 2024. Paper

  13. (KCI) 🚩Hyojung Lee, Giphil Cho, Estimating the number of ICU patients of COVID-19 by using a simple mathematical model, East Asian Mathematical Journal, 2024. Paper

2023

• 14. 🚩Giphil Cho*, Jeong Rye Park*, Yongin Choi, Hyeonjeong Ahn, Hyojung Lee, Detection of COVID-19 epidemic outbreak using machine learning, Frontiers in Public Health, 11, 2023. Paper

  15. 🚩Giphil Cho, Young Jin Kim, Sang-hyup Seo, Geunsoo Jang, Hyojung Lee, Cost‑effectiveness analysis of COVID‑19 variants effects in an age‑structured model, Scientific Reports, 13, 15844, 2023. Paper

  16. 🚩Tobhin Kim*, Hyojung Lee*, Sungchan Kim, Changhoon Kim, Hyunjin Son, Sunmi Lee, Improved time-varying reproduction numbers using the generation interval for COVID-19, Frontiers in Public Health, 11, 2023. Paper

  17. 🚩Hyojung Lee, Sol Kim, Minyoung Jeong, Eunseo Choi, Hyeonjeong Ahn, Jeehyun Lee, Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 transmission and intervention in South Korea: a review of literature, Yonsei Medical Journal, 64(1), 2023. Paper

2022

• 18. 🚩 Hyojung Lee, Geunsoo Jang, Giphil Cho, Forecasting COVID-19 cases by assessing the effect of social distancing in Republic of Korea, Alexandria Engineering Journal, 61(11), 9203-9217, 2022.  Paper

  19. Hyukpyo Hong *, Ji Yun Noh *, Hyojung Lee, Sunhwa Choi, Boseung Choi,  Jae Kyoung Kim *,  Eui-Cheol Shin *,Modeling Incorporating the Severity-Reducing Long-term Immunity: Higher Viral Transmission Paradoxically Reduces Severe COVID-19 During Endemic Transition, Immune Network, 2022. Paper

  20. Natalie M Linton, Francesca A Lovell-Read, Emma Southall, Hyojung Lee, Andrei R Akhmetzhanov, Robin N Thompson, Hiroshi Nishiura, When do epidemics end? Scientific insights from mathematical modelling studies, 64(1), 31-60, CENTAURUS, 2022. Paper

2021

• 21. 🚩Hyojung Lee*,  Chang Yong Han,Jooyi Jung, Sunmi Lee, Analysis of superspreading potential from transmission clusters of COVID-19 in Korea, International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2021. Paper

  22. 🚩Gilphil Cho, Seungheon Lee, Hyojung Lee, Estimating severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome transmission using machine learning methods in South Korea, Scientific Reports, 11, 21831, 2021. (2021.11.08) Paper

  23. Jong-Hoon Kim, Justin Im, Young Sul Won*, Hyojung Lee*, Woo-Sik Son, Rapid transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 within a religious sect in South Korea: Epidemiological description and mathematical modeling of transmission dynamics,  Epidemics, 37, 100519, 2021.  (2021.11.03) Paper 

  24. Baoyin Yuan, Hyojung Lee and Hiroshi Nishiura, Analysis of international traveler mobility patterns in Tokyo to identify geographic foci of dengue fever risk, Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling, 18(17), 2021.(2021.10.03) Paper

  25. 🚩 Hyojung Lee,  Yeahwon Kim, Eunsu Kim, and Sunmi Lee, Risk Assessment of Importation and Local Transmission of COVID-19 in South Korea: Statistical Modeling Approach, JMIR Public Health and Surveillance, 7(6), 2021. Paper

  26. 🚩Yong Sul Won*, Jong-Hoon Kim*, Chi Young Ahn, Hyojung Lee, Subcritical transmission in the early stage of COVID-19 in Korea, International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 18(3), 1265, 2021. Paper

  27. Taishi Kayano, Hyojung Lee, Ryo Kinoshita, Hiroshi Nishiura, Identifying geographic areas at risk of rubella epidemics in Japan using seroepidemiological data, International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 102, 203-211, 2021. Paper

2020

• 28. 🚩Yongin Choi*, James Slghee Kim*, Heejin Choi, Hyojung Lee* and Chang Hyeong Lee*, Assessment of Social Distancing for Controlling COVID-19 in Korea: Age-structured Modeling Approach, International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(20), 7474, 2020. Paper

  29. Sung-mok Jung, Hyojung Lee, Yichi Yang, Hiroshi Nishiura, Quantifying the causal impact of funding bedside antigen testing on the incidence of respiratory syncytial virus infection in Japan: A difference-in-differences study, Annals of Translational Medicine, 1-12, atm-20-423, 2020. Paper

  30. Hyunjin Son, Hyojung Lee, Miyoung Lee, Youngduck Eun, Kyounghee Park, Seungjin Kim, Wonseo Park, Sora Kwon, Byoungseon Ahn, Dongkeun Kim, Changhoon Kim, Epidemiological characteristics of and containment measures for coronavirus disease 2019 in Busan Metropolitan City, South Korea, Epidemiology and Health, e2020035, 2020. Paper

2019

• 31. William Hart, Leonhard Hochfilzer, Nik Cunniffe, Hyojung Lee, Hiroshi Nishiura, Robin Thompson, Accurate forecasts of the effectiveness of interventions against Ebola may require models that account for variations in symptoms during infection, Epidemics, 29, 2019, Paper

  32. Baoyin Yuan, Hyojung Lee and Hiroshi Nishiura, Assessing dengue control in Tokyo, 2014, PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 13(6), e0007468, 2019, Paper

  33. 🚩Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov*, Hyojung Lee*, Sung-mok Jung, Taishi Kayano, Baoyin Yuan and Hiroshi Nishiura, Analyzing and forecasting the Ebola incidence in North Kivu, the Democratic Republic of the Congo from 2018-19 in real time, Epidemics, 27, 123-131, 2019. Paper

  34. 🚩Hyojung Lee and Hiroshi Nishiura, Sexual transmission and the probability of the end of the Ebola virus disease epidemic, Journal of Theoretical Biology, 471, 2019, Paper

  35. 🚩Hyojung Lee, Taishi Kayano and Hiroshi Nishiura, Predicting congenital rubella syndrome in Japan, 2018-2019, International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 82, 1-5, 2019, Paper 

  36. Taishi Kayano, Hyojung Lee, Hiroshi Nishiura, Modelling Supplementary Vaccination Program of Rubella Using the 2012-13 Epidemic Data in Japan, International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 16(8), 1473, 2019, Paper 

  37. Nao Yamamoto, Hyojung Lee, Hiroshi Nishiura, Exploring the mechanisms behind the country-specific time of Zika virus importation, Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 16(5), 3272-3284, 2019, Paper

2018

• 38. Sung-mok Jung, Hyojung Lee, Hiroshi Nishiura, The impact of pneumococcal vaccination on pneumonia mortality among the elderly in Japan: a difference-in-difference study, PeerJ, 6, e6085, 2018, Paper

  39. 🚩Hyojung Lee*, Jung Eun Kim*, Sunmi Lee and Chang Hyeong Lee, Potential effects of climate change on dengue transmission dynamics in Korea, PLOS ONE, 13(6), e0199205, 2018, Paper 

  40. Ryota Matsuyama, Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov, Akira Endo, Hyojung Lee, Takayuki Yamaguchi, Shinya Tsuzuki and Hiroshi Nishiura, Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number of diphtheria: a case study of Rohingya refugee camp in Bangladesh, November-December 2017, PeerJ, 6, e4583, 2018, Paper

  41. Hiroshi Nishiura, Hyojung Lee, Baoyin Yuan, Akira Endo, Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov and Gerardo Chowell, Infectious disease risks among refugees from North Korea, International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 66, 22-25, 2018, Paper

  42. Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov, Hyojung Lee, Sung-mok Jung, Ryo Kinoshita, Kazuki Shimizu, Keita Yoshii and Hiroshi Nishiura, Real Time Forecasting of Measles Using Generation-dependent Mathematical Model in Japan, 2018, PLOS Currents Outbreaks, 10, 2018, Paper

  43. Kazuki Shimizu, Ryo Kinoshita,  Keita Yoshii, Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov, Sungmok Jung, Hyojung Lee and Hiroshi Nishiura, An investigation of a measles outbreak in Japan and Taiwan, China, March-May 2018. Western Pacific Surveillance and Response Journal (WPSAR), 9(3), 25-31, 2018, Paper

2015-17

• 44. Shinya Tsuzuki, Hyojung Lee, Fuminari Miura, Yat-Hin Chan, Sung-mok Jung, Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov and Hiroshi Nishiura, Dynamics of the pneumonic plague epidemic in Madagascar, August to October 2017, Eurosurveillance, 22(46), 2017, Paper

  45. 🚩Hyojung Lee and Hiroshi Nishiura, Recrudescence of Ebola virus disease outbreak in West Africa, 2014-2016, International Journal of Infectious Diseases 64, 90-92, 2017, Paper 

  46. 🚩Jung Eun Kim*, Hyojung Lee*, Chang Hyeong Lee and Sunmi Lee, Assessment of optimal strategies in a two-patch dengue transmission model with seasonality, PLOS ONE, 12(3), e0173673, 2017, Paper  (Article Recommended by Faculty of 1000 Prime, BRIC)) 

  47. 🚩(상위10%이내) Hyojung Lee, Sunmi Lee and Chang Hyeong Lee, Stochastic methods for epidemic models: An application to the 2009 H1N1 influenza outbreak in Korea, Applied Mathematics and Computation, 286, 232-249, 2016, Paper 

  48. 🚩Hyojung Lee and Chang Hyeong Lee, An Analytic Approach to a Stochastic Enzyme Kinetic Model, MATCH Communications in Mathematical and in Computer Chemistry 73, 691-704, 2015, Paper

Current research project

1. (김지현) Estimation the exact number of infected cases by using viral load data

2. (강윤아) Data analysis and  Modeling for Chickenpox Incidence by Age Group in the Daegu Region, Korea

3. (김민석) Forecasting SFTS cases by developing the machine learning models

4. (손창대)  ASF 지역확산 모델 및 예측

5. Pamela Kim N. Salonga, Yeonsu Lee, Changdae Son, Geunsoo Jang, DaeHyup Koh, Jong-Hoon Kim*, Hyojung Lee*, The potential impact of outbreak response immunization in the 2015 typhoid outbreak in Kampala, Uganda: a mathematical modeling study

6. (서정화) 인공지능 기반 Influenza 환자 예측

7. (김지현) 하수데이터 기반 influenza 환자 추정 PINN 방법 개발