Research

Working papers *presentation by coauthors

"Currency Appreciation and the Productivity Effects of Outward FDI: Evidence from the Plaza Accord" (draft coming soon)

PhD empirical seminar @Munich (Jul 2024, Dec 2024), Munich Trade Retreat @Munich (Jul 2024, Dec 2024), TDB-CAREE Symposium @Tokyo (Jan 2025), Empirical Econ Seminar @Munich (Jul 2025)

"Elite Persistence in Family: The Role of Adoption in Prewar Japan" with Yutaro Takayasu (2025, July)

Young JADE conference @Kyoto (Nov 2023)*, PhD empirical seminar @Munich (Nov 2023), AASLE @Bangkok (Dec, 2024)*, Kyoto Summer WS on Applied Econ @Kyoto (Aug 2025), East Asian Economic Association conference @Manila (Nov 2025)*

Abstract: Why can elite families often maintain their social and economic status over multiple generations? We show that adoption can contribute to the persistence of elite status by utilizing a unique historical framework of prewar Japan. However, the preference for adopted heirs may lead to selection bias in the process of choosing heirs, potentially biasing OLS results negatively. To address this selection bias, we use the gender of the firstborn child as an instrument for the adoption decision. We find that having an adopted heir increases the probability of maintaining elite status in the son’s generation by 27% compared to having a biological heir. Furthermore, we show that this result is driven by matching high-quality adopted sons with fathers who were highly successful in their early lives.

"Elite Formation and Family Structure in Prewar Japan: Evidence from the Who's Who Records" with Suguru Otani and Yutaro Takayasu 2025 (July)

Econ History WS @Kyoto (Aug 2025)

Abstract: This paper introduces a newly constructed individual-level dataset of prewar Japanese elites using the “Who’s Who” directories published in 1903–1939. Covering approximately the top 0.1% of the population, the dataset contains rich information on social origin, education, occupation, and family structure. By reconstructing intergenerational links and family networks, we provide descriptive evidence on elite formation and persistence across geography, social groups, and education during institutional transitions. The dataset provides a foundational empirical resource for studying elite reproduction, intergenerational and intergroup mobility, and institutional development during Japan’s transition to a modern society.

Selected work in progress (working titles) *presentation by coauthors

"West Side Story: The Role of Geography in Economic Distribution in Early 20th Century Japan"

Munich Trade Retreat @Munich (Jul 2023)

"Trade and Local Pollution" with Claudia Steinwender

Munich Trade Retreat @Munich (Jul 2024)

"Reconstructing the Elites? Intergenerational Transmission of Elite Status through WWII" with Yutaro Takayasu

Hitotsubashi seminar @Tokyo (Mar 2025)*

Publications (peer-reviewed):

"Impacts of Inter-firm Transaction Relations on the Adoption of Remote Work: Evidence from a Survey in Japan during the COVID-19 Pandemic," with Eiichi Tomiura

Japan and the World Economy, 2023

Abstract: During the COVID-19 pandemic, remote work suddenly attracted attention. This paper focuses on inter-firm relations, as the costs and benefits of introducing remote work are likely to differ depending on the firms’ relationships with other firms. We combine our unique survey on the responses of Japanese manufacturers or wholesalers to the COVID-19 pandemic with transaction relation data. We find that firms sourcing from more suppliers before the pandemic are significantly more likely to adopt remote work during the pandemic even after controlling for firm size. Wholesalers selling to more customers appear to be less likely to shift to remote work.

"Using Managers' Expectations for Ex-ante Policy Evaluation: Evidence from the COVID-19 Crisis," with Kohei Kawaguchi, Naomi Kodama, and Mari Tanaka

Journal of Economics and Management Strategy, 2023. Full ver. with Appendix

Abstract: Evaluation of the impacts of government policies during an economic crisis is often delayed until the outcomes are realized. Policies can be better guided if they can be evaluated amid a crisis, before the realization of outcomes. This study examines whether survey data on the expectations of small business managers can be used to evaluate two high-stake subsidies for firms amid the COVID-19 crisis in Japan, namely, Subsidy Program for Sustaining Businesses (SPSB) and Employment Adjustment Subsidy (EAS). Thus, we evaluate the accuracy of managers’ expectations, estimate the impact of subsidies on the expected firm survival, and compare it with the estimated impact on realized survival. We find that the managers’ expectations on their future sales, survival rate, and the possibility of receiving these subsidies predict the realized outcomes, although they were highly pessimistic about their survival rates. We find that managers adjust their expectations by learning from past forecasting errors throughout the crisis. We find that the estimated impacts of the SPSB on the expected survival rates have the same sign as the estimated impact on the realized survival rates, but the size is more than twice. The estimated impacts of the EAS are both insignificant. Therefore, although its impact may be overestimated, managers’ expectations are useful for selecting an effective policy.

"Productivity Premium of Multinationals in Global Ownership Linkages: A Comparison of Second-tier Subsidiaries," with Eiichi Tomiura

Review of International Economics, 2023.

Abstract: High productivity of FDI firms is a stylized fact. However, in the real world, there are subsidiaries owned by foreign parents but establishing their own foreign subsidiaries. Based on global ownership linkage data, we compare productivity levels of subsidiaries owned by parents in G7 countries but located worldwide. The FDI productivity premium is on average significantly small if investing firms are owned by foreign parents. Among firms with subsidiaries, the foreign ownership tends to reduce the FDI premium more when firms depend more on intangibles. This suggests that knowledge transfers within multinationals facilitate subsidiaries to make their own FDI.

Other publications (peer-reviewed):

"The Economy and Society under the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Surveys," with Eiichi Tomiura and Banri Ito

Keizai Kenkyu (Economic Review), 2022 (in Japanese). PDF

Abstract: Among various effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, reductions in face-to-face contact are likely to have deep impacts on a wide range of issues, including personal work styles, inter-firm transactions, and locations of firms. We conducted a survey of all medium or large-sized firms in manufacturing and wholesale industries in Japan to collect information on their reduction of face-to-face contact by such means as holding online meetings and instituting teleworking. We questioned them on their adoptions at the following four points in time: December 2019, before the pandemic; April/May 2020, under the first state of emergency; September/October, after the introduction of subsidies for traveling; and January 2021, under the second state of emergency in some regions. The survey results show that substantially more firms began using online meetings and teleworking, but significant variation continued across firms even under the second state of emergency. Firms that had been digitized or globalized before the pandemic tended to be especially active in introducing measures for reducing face-to-face contact.

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