Research

Abstract: 

Abstract: This paper introduces a newly constructed individual-level dataset of prewar Japanese elites using the ``Who's Who'' directories published in 1903--1939. Covering approximately the top 0.1% of the population, the dataset contains rich information on social group, education, occupation, and family structure. By reconstructing intergenerational links and family networks, we provide descriptive evidence on elite formation and persistence across geography, social groups, and education during transitions from feudal system to modern system. We also use family records to document elite marriage patterns and family-based mobility, showing stable age assortative matching, widening husband--wife age gaps, and associations between marriage-age structure, adoption, and elite persistence. The dataset provides a foundational empirical resource for studying intergenerational and intergroup mobility, and institutional development during Japan’s transition to a modern society.

Abstract: Large exchange rate appreciations pose a fundamental challenge for open economies: they compress export margins, weaken competitiveness, and force firms and regions to adjust their production and employment structures. However, evidence on how such adjustments unfold over the long run remains limited. This paper studies these mechanisms using Japan’s sharp yen appreciation following the 1985 Plaza Accord. Combining a firm-level panel data from 1980 to 1999 with industry-level shock exposure, I estimate how appreciation affected firms’ employment, sales, and labor productivity. The results show sharp declines in sales and productivity but modest employment losses, reflecting Japan's rigid labor practices. Industries more exposed to export shocks expanded FDI in Asia, stabilizing domestic employment but lowering labor productivity. At the regional level, labor reallocation from manufacturing to services occurred in shock-exposed regions, suggesting that the yen appreciation led to gradual structural transformation.

Kanematsu Prize 2025, 18th FIW Young Economist Award 2026