Distribution modeling

Species are introduced around the world accidentally and intentionally. Some of these introduced species have become invasive, creating adverse ecological and evolutionary changes in recipient ecosystems. Current literature mostly considers how an introduced population goes from establishment to the spreading stage, with much less attention given to factors driving the initial establishment of an introduced population – this is a problem as this is the stage where most introductions fail. It is crucial to identify the underlying mechanisms that enable the successful establishment of introduced species, in order to comprehend and mitigate the invasive potential of introduced species. In my PhD, I used ladybirds as a model system to identify factors and mechanisms that influence the successful establishment of introduced species. Here, using work from invasive biology and biocontrol systems I categorise the factors affecting the successful establishment of introduced species. This categorisation provides a useful guide for researchers wanting to study establishment success and can be used as a checklist of assessment to be carried out when introducing a new species from biocontrol and conservation. Read the complete article here.

During data collection for my PhD, I observed that the distribution of native ladybird species in New Zealand appeared to be very restricted compared to that of introduced species in New Zealand. In this project I model the distribution of native and introduced ladybirds in New Zealand. This research is essential and timely as, a) we have very little information on the spatial distribution of New Zealand ladybirds and b) the recent invasion of the ladybird Harmonia axyridis to New Zealand in 2016 is likely to affect the distribution of native and other introduced species in New Zealand. The aim of my research is to model the spatial distribution of native and introduced New Zealand ladybirds and predict the current and future distribution of invasive H. axyridis species in New Zealand. This will allow us to understand the potential impacts of H. axyridis on native populations of ladybirds.