Working papers
The Wandering Scholars: Understanding the Heterogeneity of University Commercialization
With Josh Lerner, Henry Manley, and Carolyn Stein
NBER working paper #32069
Online appendix
Refereed journal publications
Representation and Extrapolation: Evidence from Clinical Trials
With Marcella Alsan, Maya Durvasula, Harsh Gupta, and Joshua Schwartzstein
Forthcoming, Quarterly Journal of Economics
NBER working paper #30575
Optimal Vaccine Subsidies for Epidemic Diseases
With Matthew Goodkin-Gold, Michael Kremer, and Christopher Snyder
Forthcoming, Review of Economics and Statistics
One of two companion papers derived from NBER working paper #28085
The NBER Orange Book Dataset: A User's Guide
With Maya Durvasula, C. Scott Hemphill, Lisa Larrimore Ouellette, and Bhaven Sampat
2023, Research Policy 52(7): 104791
NBER working paper #30628
Optimal Vaccine Subsidies for Endemic Diseases
With Matthew Goodkin-Gold, Michael Kremer, and Christopher Snyder
2022, International Journal of Industrial Organization 84: 102840
One of two companion papers derived from NBER working paper #28085
NIH Public Access PMC8975799
Place-Based Drivers of Mortality: Evidence from Migration
With Amy Finkelstein and Matthew Gentzkow
2021, American Economic Review 111(8): 2697-2735
NBER working paper #25975
NIH Public Access PMC8653912
Screening and Selection: The Case of Mammograms
With Liran Einav, Amy Finkelstein, Tamar Oostrom, and Abigail Ostriker
2020, American Economic Review 110(12): 3836-3870
NBER working paper #26162
NIH Public Access PMC9300583
Who Profits from Patents? Rent-Sharing at Innovative Firms
With Patrick Kline, Neviana Petkova, and Owen Zidar
2019, Quarterly Journal of Economics 134(3): 1343-1404
Copyright 2019, Oxford Journals
NBER working paper #25245
NIH Public Access PMC7470084
The More We Die, The More We Sell? A Simple Test of the Home-Market Effect
With Arnaud Costinot, Dave Donaldson, and Margaret Kyle
2019, Quarterly Journal of Economics 134(2): 843-894
Copyright 2019, Oxford Journals
NBER working paper #22538
NIH Public Access PMC6451965
How Do Patents Affect Follow-on Innovation? Evidence from the Human Genome
With Bhaven Sampat
2019, American Economic Review 109(1): 203-236
Copyright 2019, American Economic Association
NBER working paper #21666
NIH Public Access PMC6317741
How Do Patents Affect Research Investments?
2017, Annual Reviews of Economics 9: 441-469
Copyright 2017, Annual Reviews
NBER working paper #23088
NIH Public Access PMC5664960
Adjusting Risk Adjustment: Accounting for Variation in Diagnostic Intensity
With Amy Finkelstein, Matthew Gentzkow, and Peter Hull
2017, New England Journal of Medicine 376(7): 608-610
Copyright 2017, NEJM Group
NIH Public Access PMC5380362
Sources of Geographic Variation in Health Care: Evidence from Patient Migration
With Amy Finkelstein and Matthew Gentzkow
2016, Quarterly Journal of Economics 131(4): 1681-1726
Copyright 2016, MIT Press
NBER working paper #20789
NIH Public Access PMC5243120
Why is Infant Mortality Higher in the US Than in Europe?
With Alice Chen and Emily Oster
2016, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 8(2): 89-124
Copyright 2016, American Economic Association
NBER working paper #20525
NIH Public Access PMC4856058
Paying on the Margin for Medical Care: Evidence from Breast Cancer Treatments
With Liran Einav and Amy Finkelstein
2016, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 8(1): 52-79
Copyright 2016, American Economic Association
NBER working paper #20226
NIH Public Access PMC4758371
Do Firms Underinvest in Long-Term Research? Evidence from Cancer Clinical Trials
With Eric Budish and Benjamin Roin
2015, American Economic Review 105(7): 2044-2085
Copyright 2015, American Economic Association
NBER working paper #19430
NIH Public Access PMC4557975
Awarded the Kauffman/iHEA Award for Health Care Entrepreneurship and Innovation Research
Awarded the iHEA Kenneth J. Arrow Award
Intellectual Property Rights and Innovation: Evidence from the Human Genome
2013, Journal of Political Economy 121(1): 1-27
Copyright 2013, University of Chicago Press
NBER working paper #16213
NIH Public Access PMC3955392
Estimating Marginal Returns to Medical Care: Evidence from At-Risk Newborns
With Douglas Almond, Joseph Doyle, and Amanda Kowalski
2010, Quarterly Journal of Economics 125(2): 591-634
Copyright 2010, MIT Press
NBER working paper #14522
NIH Public Access PMC2903901
Reply to Barreca et al.; 2011, Quarterly Journal of Economics 126(4): 2125-2131
Awarded the 2010 HCUP Outstanding Article of the Year award
Awarded the 2011 Garfield Economic Impact Award
Published conference proceedings
Private and Public Investments in Biomedical Research
With Maya Durvasula and Lisa Larrimore Ouellette
2021, American Economic Association Papers & Proceedings 111: 341-45
Copyright 2021, American Economic Association
NBER working paper #28349
NIH Public Access PMC8356751
Internalizing Externalities: Designing Effective Data Policies
With Ryan Hill and Carolyn Stein
2020, American Economic Association Papers & Proceedings 110: 49-54
Copyright 2020, American Economic Association
Is American Health Care Uniquely Inefficient? Evidence from Prescription Drugs
With Margaret Kyle
2017, American Economic Review Papers & Proceedings 107(5): 486-90
Copyright 2017, American Economic Association
NBER working paper #23068
NIH Public Access PMC5445925
Patents and Research Investments: Assessing the Empirical Evidence
With Eric Budish and Benjamin Roin
2016, American Economic Review Papers & Proceedings 106(5): 183-187
Copyright 2016, American Economic Association
NBER working paper #21889
NIH Public Access PMC4880049
Non-technical writing
How Does Accounting for Population Change Affect Estimates of the Effect of Immigration Policies on the Federal Budget?
With Doug Elmendorf
2024, Penn Wharton Budget Model Policy Brief
Population change modeling work with Matt Esche and Jeremy Neufeld [pdf, code]
A Serious Case for Dynamic Scoring
With Doug Elmendorf
2023, guest post on Matthew Yglesias's Slow Boring
I also discussed this material in a talk (skip to 5:47:51) at the 2023 Federal Trade Commission Microeconomics Conference
To Speed Scientific Progress, Understand How Science Policy Works
With Matt Clancy, Dan Correa, Jordan Dworkin, Paul Niehaus, and Caleb Watney
2023, Nature 620 (24 August): 724-726
To Speed Scientific Progress, Do Away with Funding Delays
2023, Washington Post
Drug Pricing Reforms Can Hurt Innovation. Here are 3 Ways to Prevent That
With Caleb Watney
2022, Washington Post
Breaking America's Patent Stalemate
With Lisa Larrimore Ouellette
2020, Project Syndicate
With Lisa Larrimore Ouellette
2020, The Hamilton Project: Policy Proposal 2020-12
Copyright 2020, Brookings Institution
Endorsed by Senator Thom Tillis in two letters (available here and here) to the USPTO (see also here and here)
Op-Ed published by Project Syndicate
Brief published by the German Marshall Fund of the United States #Tech2021 Project
A Toolkit of Policies to Promote Innovation
With Nicholas Bloom and John Van Reenen
2019, Journal of Economic Perspectives 33(3): 163-184
Copyright 2019, American Economic Association
Public comments
Comments on proposed Circular A-4
With David Autor and many others
2022, Regulations.gov Docket No. OMB-2022-0014
Comments on Patent Eligibility Jurisprudence Study
With Maya Durvasula and Lisa Larrimore Ouellette
2021, Regulations.gov Docket No. PTO-P-2021-0032
Other writing
Accelerating Innovation Ecosystems: The Promise and Challenges of Regional Innovation Engines
With Jorge Guzman, Fiona Murray, and Scott Stern
Forthcoming, in Ben Jones and Josh Lerner (editors), Entrepreneurship and Innovation Policy and the Economy.
NBER working paper #31541
Innovation: Market Failures and Public Policies
With Kevin Bryan
2021, Chapter 13 in Kate Ho, Ali Hortacsu, and Alessandro Lizzeri
Handbook of Industrial Organization 5(1): 281-388
Copyright 2021, Elsevier
NBER working paper #29173
2018, Science 361(6408): 1195
Copyright 2018, American Association for the Advancement of Science
Standing on the Shoulders of Scotchmer: The Empirical Economics of Cumulative Innovation
With Jeffrey Furman, Fiona Murray, and Scott Stern
2017, Chapter 27 in Stephen Maurer (editor), On the Shoulders of Giants: 350-357.
Copyright 2017, Cambridge University Press
Intellectual Property Rights and Innovation: Evidence from Health Care Markets
2016, in Josh Lerner and Scott Stern (editors), Innovation Policy and the Economy Volume 16: 53-87.
Copyright 2016, University of Chicago Press
NBER working paper #21246
Innovation Inducement Prizes: Connecting Research to Policy
2012, Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 31(3): 752-776
Copyright 2012, Wiley-Blackwell
Incentivizing Innovation: Adding to the Tool Kit
With Michael Kremer
2010, in Josh Lerner and Scott Stern (editors), Innovation Policy and the Economy Volume 10: 1-17
Copyright 2010, University of Chicago Press
With Ernst Berndt, Rachel Glennerster, Michael Kremer, Jean Lee, Ruth Levine, and Georg Weizsäcker
2007, Health Economics 16(3): 491-511
Copyright 2007, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
NBER working paper #11288
With Rachel Glennerster and Michael Kremer
2006, Innovations: Technology | Governance | Globalization 1(1): 67-79
Copyright 2006, MIT Press
Advance Market Commitments: A Policy to Stimulate Investments in Vaccines for Neglected Diseases
With Owen Barder and Michael Kremer
2006, The Economists' Voice 3(3): article 1
Copyright 2006, Berkeley Electronic Press
With Rachel Glennerster and Michael Kremer
2005, Foreign Policy May/June: 26-27
Copyright 2005, Foreign Policy