Hedda Nielsen

Publications 

Attempting to Detect a Lie: Do We Think it Through?, (2025), International Journal of Game Theory, with Julia Jawer and Georg Weizsäcker. (Link).

Abstract: Game-theoretic analyses of communication rely on beliefs -- especially, the receiver's belief about the truth status of an utterance and the sender's belief about the reaction to the utterance -- but research that provides measurements of such beliefs is still in its infancy. Our experiment examines the use of second-order beliefs, measuring belief hierarchies regarding a message that may be a lie. In a two-player communication game between a sender and a receiver, the sender knows the state of the world and has a transparent incentive to deceive the receiver. The receiver chooses a binary reaction. For a wide set of non-equilibrium beliefs, the reaction and the receiver's second-order belief should dissonate: she should follow the sender's statement if and only if she believes that the sender believes that she does not follow the statement. The opposite is true empirically, constituting a new pattern of inconsistency between actions and beliefs.

Work in Progress

Fairness and Attribution Bias in a Society of Unequal Opportunity, with Alexander W. Cappelen, Yiming Liu and Bertil Tungodden. (WP). Under Review.

Abstract: Modern societies are characterized by widespread disparities in opportunities, creating income inequality between people whose choices are shaped by different circumstances. This paper investigates how people interpret and respond to such inequalities, drawing on a large-scale experimental study with general population samples in the United States and Scandinavia. We find substantial attribution bias in people's mental models of inequality: they systematically underestimate the role of unequal opportunities. Many, in fact, hold an empowering narrative and attribute the entire inequality to internal factors. This attribution bias, combined with people viewing a performance difference as morally relevant even when caused by unequal opportunities, drives a high acceptance of inequality under unequal opportunities. We further demonstrate a clear societal and political divide, with Americans---and especially Republicans---exhibiting greater acceptance of such inequality than Scandinavians, reflecting both a greater attribution bias and differences in fairness views.

Biased Belief Updating and Memory: The Role of Confidence, with Julia Baumann and Ju Yeong Hong.
Awarded the John Tomer Memorial Prize at SABE 2025. 

Abstract:  We study the impact of confidence on belief updating and recall of feedback. Previous research has focused on how (asymmetric) belief updating affects individuals’ confidence. We instead ask how exogenously induced high or low confidence impacts feedback processing. In an experiment where we manipulate participants' confidence levels, underconfidence leads individuals to react less to positive feedback than overconfidence. For negative feedback we find no treatment difference for immediate belief updating. Further, we find no significant differences in recall of feedback for either under- versus overconfidence or for positive versus negative feedback.

Publications in Swedish

Topp fem-publiceringar av Sverigebaserade forskare 1989-2019, (2020), Ekonomisk Debatt, with Magnus Henrekson. (Link).