Tendency for people to match choice proportions to outcome proportions in a binary prediction task.
Goodnow, J. J. (1955). Response-sequences in a pair of two-choice probability situations. The American journal of psychology, 68(4), 624–630.
1. A die with 4 red faces and 2 green faces will be rolled 60 times. Before each roll you will be asked to predict which color (red or green) will show up once the die is rolled. Pretend that you will be given 1 dollar for each correct prediction. Assume that you want to make as much money as possible. What strategy would you use in order to make as much money as possible by making the most correct predictions?
Strategy A: Go by intuition, switching when there has been too many of one color or the other.
Strategy B: Predict the more likely color (red) on most of the rolls but occasionally, after a long run of reds, predict a green.
Strategy C: Make predictions according to the frequency of occurrence (four of six for red and two of six for green). That is, predict twice as many reds as greens.
Strategy D: Predict the more likely color (red) on all of the 60 rolls.
Strategy E: Predict more red than green, but switching back and forth depending upon "runs" of one color or the other.
2. A card deck has only 10 cards. Seven of the cards have the letter "a" on the down side. Three of the cards have the letter "b" on the down side. The 10 cards are randomly shuffled. Your task is to guess the letter on the down side of each card before it is turned over. Pretend that you will win $100 for each card’s down side letter you correctly predict. Indicate your predictions for each of the 10 cards:
Card #1 will be a or b?
Card #2 will be a or b?
Card #3 will be a or b?
Card #4 will be a or b?
Card #5 will be a or b?
Card #6 will be a or b?
Card #7 will be a or b?
Card #8 will be a or b?
Card #9 will be a or b?
Card #10 will be a or b?
In the first item, score of 1 if the participant chose Strategy D (maximizing strategy), all other options are scored as 0. In the second item, score of 1 if all responses follow the normative strategy of maximizing (e.g., predicting “a” for all cards). Any other response is non-normative and scored as 0.
West, R. F., & Stanovich, K. E. (2003). Is probability matching smart? Associations between probabilistic choices and cognitive ability. Memory & Cognition, 31(2), 243–251.