Task

In a first phase, participants perform a task in which they are asked to find the exception in a set of five words and then indicate the confidence in their response using a 5-point scale. Later in the test, participants receive feedback on the accuracy of each response and are asked to recall their initial confidence judgment.

Items (14)

Item 1: wire, cable, rope, yarn, thread

Item 2: sadness, anger, resentment, mourning, sorrow

Item 3: 8, 7, 5, 6, 3

Item 4: soccer, basketball, volleyball, handball, rugby

Item 5: felt pen, pencil, chalk, crayon, pen

Item 6: trickle, secrete, tearing, leak, drip

Item 7: aggregate, group, team, crowd, mob

Item 8: spawn, brood, den, stall, nest

Item 9: friend, companion, pal, chum, buddy

Item 10: sweater, shoe, topcoat, coat, boot

Item 11: fragrant, dark, soft, silky, sharp

Item 12: chimney, exhaust pipe, tube, kennel, tunnel

Item 13: exchange, controversy, friendship, conversation, debate

Item 14: wolf, donkey, cat, roe deer, cow

Scoring

The hindsight score is calculated as the proportion of hindsighted responses. A response is coded as hindsighted if the participant lowered her confidence after being informed that her response was incorrect, or raised her confidence after being informed that her response was correct.

Berthet (2021) suggested another scoring. Indeed, the scoring procedure of Teovanović et al. (2015) does not consider the magnitude of the hindsight bias. Therefore, the difference between the confidence rating recalled and the initial one should be considered. Moreover, there is a hypothesized direction for this difference: it should be positive when a correct feedback is provided, and negative when an incorrect feedback is provided. Accordingly, the hindsight score should be calculated as:

(recalled confidence rating – initial confidence rating) × accuracy

with accuracy being coded 1 (correct feedback) or -1 (incorrect feedback).