Description

Tendency for people to believe that the probability for an outcome after a series of outcomes is not the same as the probability for a single outcome.

Tune, G. S. (1964). Response preferences: A review of some relevant literature. Psychological Bulletin, 61, 286–302.

Items (2)

1. Imagine that we are tossing a fair coin (a coin that has a 50/50 chance of coming up heads or tails) and it has just come up heads 5 times in a row. For the sixth toss, do you think that:

a. It is more likely that tails will come up than heads.
b. It is more likely that heads will come up than tails.
c. Heads and tails are equally probable on the sixth toss.

2. When playing slot machines, people win something 1 out of every 10 times. Julie, however, just won her first three plays. What are her chances of winning the next time she plays?

___ out of ___

Scoring

In the first item, answer c is the normative response and is scored as 1, while the other two alternatives are scored as 0. In the second item, an answer of 1 out of 10 is the normative response and is scored as 1, while any other response is scored as 0.

Source

Toplak, M. E., Liu, E., Macpherson, R., Toneatto, T., & Stanovich, K. E. (2007). The reasoning skills and thinking dispositions of problem gamblers: A dual-process taxonomy. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 20(2), 103–124.