Selected Policy Works 

Since 2014, the armed conflict in Ukraine’s eastern provinces (oblasts) of Donetsk and Luhansk has dealt a heavy blow to people’s lives. The conflict has magnified the long-standing problems and created new ones. 

This study shows that scaling up efforts in the government-controlled areas (GCAs) of Donbas is desirable despite the subdued productivity in the region. This study recommends a decision tree approach to programming recovery in Donbas. Given the looming uncertainties and scenario-sensitivity of optimal policies, the recovery strategy should distinguish contingent policies from no-regret policies. 

Contingent policies change between the status quo and the reintegration scenarios, and they include interventions to mitigate conflict-related risks, risk-related transfers to address skill-shortages in GCAs, and investments for a contingent infrastructure strategy. By comparison, no-regret policies are desirable regardless of the conflict dynamics. They include the reforms to eliminate regulatory burdens and corruption; policies to open up the housing market; investments to modernize education for jobs and target low-hanging fruits in infrastructure; and efforts to produce better data to address knowledge gaps. 

This report identifies key factors weighing on Syrian refugees contemplating a return home and analyzes how changing conditions in Syria might affect their decisions. It analyzes the voluntary return of 103,090 Syrian refugees to determine the key factors that influenced their decisions. This group of refugees, who returned between 2015 and 2018, were compared with millions of others in Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon who chose not to return by using various statistical techniques including machine-learning. The results were compared with other refugee situations around the globe, ranging from Iraqi refugees in pre-war Syria, to the Balkans, and Somali refugees in Kenya.

This analytical approach allowed for a better understanding of the complex set factors that refugees must navigate as they consider a return home. Building on this understanding and recognizing that returns that have taken place so far may not be the same as future returns, the report also employs simulations to generate scenarios of security and service restoration in Syria and how that would influence spontaneous returns. Overall, the extensive analysis of data, review of international experience, and forward-looking simulations allowed for a comprehensive, evidence-based study of the return patterns of Syrian refugees. 

MEDIA: Marketplace Morning Report of BBC/NPR, Middle East Institute Event, The Economist, Voice of America (in Turkish)

In 1991, thousands of South Sudanese boys walked into Kenya. Having fled war in their own countries, about 20 thousand of these "lost boys" first tried taking refuge in Ethiopia. With no real options to stay, many were killed on their walk back to South Sudan or while attempting to swim the crocodile infested River Gilo, before entering Kenya. Between 7 thousand and 10 thousand were estimated to have made it alive to Kenya at that time, with no possessions besides the clothes on their back. The arrival of these "lost boys" eventually transformed how the Kenyan Government approached the issue of refugees. The Government had allowed for the integration of arriving refugees into the Kenyan population up until that point. The arrival of these "lost boys" marked the beginning of the encampment strategy in Kenya. From that point onwards, the refugee screening process was turned over from the Kenyan government to the United Nations High Commission for Refugess (UNHCR) . The boys were initially housed in a temporary camp located closer to the Sudanese border, in the town of Lokichogio. In June of 1002, the camp was relocated farther south to Kakuma Town, in the central Turkana region, where it has remained since. Flash-forward 35 years, with more than 180 thousand refuges, the Kakuma Refugee Camp stands as one of the largest urban settlements on the plains of Turkana. The camp currently houses individuals from different nationalities, primarily Sudanese, Somalis and Ethiopians. There is a significant internal economy of goods and services, bolstered by the goods (especially food) and public services provided by international organizations.