MEND-R: Modeling Effective Network
Disruptions of Sex Trafficking Recruitment

Modeling Effective Network Disruptions of Sex Trafficking Recruitment (MEND-R) Project Overview

The MEND-R project shed new light into the structure and operations for the recruitment of individuals into sex trafficking networks. Since trafficking cannot happen without the successful recruitment of victims, understanding the tactics used for recruitment helps to understand an essential trafficking business function. Our research helped to better understand the complex pathways that led to the recruitment and re-recruitment of victims into trafficking. It provides a framework to understand what gets people recruited into trafficking, what may keep people in trafficking situations, and what may get people back into trafficking situations after leaving one previously. The MEND-R project created a mathematical model of these complex pathways using the concept of a Markov Chain, which helps to understand how interventions focused on meeting basic needs of people could decrease the possibility that they are recruited or re-recruited into trafficking.

The MEND-R Project was supported by the National Institute of Justice through grant number 2020-MU-MU-0040. The final project report can be found here. The views and conclusions presented here are those of the project team and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the National Institute of Justice.

Research Overview

Recruitment is a process

The phases of this process include: (1) what gets you in, which is a combination of susceptibilities and circumstances, (2) what keeps you in, which includes the manipulation and control implemented by the trafficker, (3) an initial exit, (4) survivor support, which includes immediate needs and support for long-term healing and recovery, (5) basic needs not being met post-trafficking, which may be the result of complex processes to access support, and (6) what gets you back in, which could be someone deciding that their most viable option for survival is returning to trafficking.

Conceptualization of the recruitment pathway: Courtesy of Martin et al. (2024). Concept for figure was created by Cynthia Matthias UMN '23.

An initial Markov Chain model of sex trafficking recruitment pathways: Courtesy of Martin et al. (2024)

A Markov Chain Model of Recruitment: Initial Conceptualization

Our team explored how we could create a Markov Chain model of the recruitment process of an individual. In a Markov Chain, there is a collection of states and when an individual is in a particular state, there is a chance they will transition into a different state. There was excitement about this model, even from non-OR team members: “Looking at the model, I get it, and I like how you do the flow back and forth. It happens on the regular. ... If we don’t have a proper response from the services, they could go back.”

A Markov Chain Model of Sex Trading: What Data Allowed Us to Do

There was a lack of longitudinal data on the experiences of sex trafficking victims that would have allowed for us to populate a Markov Chain model. Based on available data, we focused on creating a Markov Chain model of youth trading sex and populating it with data associated with youth in Minnesota that have had some involvement with the child welfare system. This scope allowed us to focus in on transition probability elicitation with experts and gather comparative data from the literature. Once data was finalized, initial analysis allowed us to understand how interventions, such as increased accessed to housing, impacted the probability that someone would end up trading sex as a youth.

A Markov Chain Model of Sex Trading: Courtesy of Martin et al. (2024)

MEND-R Publications

Note: Presented in reverse chronological order.

Martin, L., Maass, K.L., Barrick, K., Sharkey, T.C., Farrell, A., Matthias, C., Tezcan, B., Williams, M., Ayler, T., Forliti, T., Friedman, J., Mariotti, M., Nelson, C., Brown, C., & Florey, M. (2024). Identification of effective strategies to disrupt recruitment of victims in human trafficking: Qualitative data, systems modeling, survivors, and law enforcement. NIJ Final Report of 2020-MU-MU-0040.
Tezcan, B. (2024). Network Models for Illicit Operations and Extensions to Human Trafficking. PhD Dissertation, Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, Northeastern University.
Martin, L., Matthias, C., Abeyta, S., Kafafian, M., Barrick, K., & Farrell, A. (2023). Mechanisms of recruitment into sex trafficking operations: A systematic review. Global Crime, 24(4), 239-262.
Sharkey, T.C., Barrick, K., Farrell, A., Maass, K.L., Martin, L. and Song, Y. (2021) Better together: A transdisciplinary approach to disrupt human trafficking. ISE Magazine, 51(11), 34–39.

Banner picture is courtesy of team member Terry Forliti.

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