I am a Assistant Professor of Finance at the Imperial College Business School
I received my PhD in Finance from the HKUST Business School in 2025
My research interests span Finance and Development, Political Economy and Economic History
My CV: Curriculum Vitae
Email: sdutta@imperial.ac.uk
(New Version Coming Soon)
Abstract: This article examines the long-term, intergenerational effects of financial crises on rich versus poor households. I study the first 'Great Depression' originating from the Panic of 1873 in the United States and find that the economic consequences of this crisis persisted for over a century, especially for poor households. Using spatial variation in severity of the crisis and linked census and administrative records from 1870 to 2000, I trace how affected families fared across generations. Poor households, who had no wealth and were unable to withstand the crisis in cities, were forced to relocate to rural areas with lower living costs. However, these areas offered worse educational opportunities and primarily lower-skilled jobs, potentially limiting prospects for future generations. Descendants of poor families with higher exposure to the crisis therefore show significantly lower education, income, and wealth. Importantly, these effects persist for four generations — well into the 2000s — and are most pronounced for households in the bottom third of the wealth distribution. Overall, my results suggest that recoveries from financial crises have historically been two-pronged: while some recover quickly and fully, lives of others — and their future generations — can be damaged irreparably.
Awards: Best Paper Award, HKUST Business School PhD Conference 2024 (All Business disciplines)
Science Advances, Vol 8 Issue 18, May 2022
Co-Authors: Abhiroop Mukherjee, George Panayotov, Rik Sen, and Pulak Ghosh
Abstract: Despite an urgent need, authorities in many countries are struggling to track COVID vaccine effectiveness (VE) because standard VE measures cannot be calculated from their public health data. Here, we use regression discontinuity design (RDD) to estimate VE, motivated by such limitations in public health records from West Bengal, India. These data cover 8,755,414 COVID vaccinations (90% ChAdOx1 NCov-19, almost all first doses, until May 2021), 8,179,635 tests, and 141,800 hospitalizations. The standard RDD exploits age-based vaccine eligibility; we also introduce a new RDD-based VE measure that improves on the standard one when better data are available. Applying these measures, we find a VE of 55.2% (95% confidence interval: 44.5 to 65.0%) against symptomatic disease, 80.1% (63.3 to 88.8%) against hospitalizations, and 85.5% (24.8 to 99.2%) against intensive care/critical care/high dependency admissions or deaths. Other data-deficient countries with age-based eligibility for any vaccine—and not just COVID vaccines—can also use these easy-to-implement measures to inform their own immunization policies.
Co-Authors: Pulak Ghosh, Arkodipta Sarkar, and Nishant Vats
Abstract: This study examines the impact of political institutions on firm creation, focusing on how governance structures influence spatial distribution of entrepreneurship. We exploit a unique natural experiment in India, where haphazard overlaps of electoral and administrative boundaries create quasi-random variation in the number of politicians, often from different political parties, governing different regions. This setting allows us to implement a geographic regression discontinuity design, comparing new firm creation rates across boundaries separating areas governed by single versus multiple politicians. We further leverage temporal variation induced by electoral redistricting to employ a differences-in-discontinuities approach. Our findings reveal that regions governed by multiple politicians experience significantly higher rates of new firm formation and increased economic activity. We attribute these outcomes to improved governance efficiency, streamlined regulatory processes, and reduced cronyism, likely resulting from mutual checks and balances among multiple non-aligned politicians. These results suggest that political power-sharing can foster a more conducive environment for entrepreneurship by improving governance quality and reducing entry barriers for small firms.
(Solo Authored)
Abstract: I examine how revenue shocks alter production choices by studying the response of Mexican Drug Trafficking Organizations (DTOs) to U.S. recreational marijuana legalization, as a natural laboratory. Using homicide data and newspaper reports to track DTO activity, I document significant shifts in illicit drug production. DTOs reduced marijuana production, as evidenced by sharp declines in both homicides and presence in areas suitable for marijuana cultivation. Drug seizure patterns indicate DTOs shifted toward harder drugs instead of scaling down operations. This shift translated into severe public health consequences in the U.S., where regions more exposed to Mexican trafficking networks experienced larger increases in overdose deaths from harder drugs following marijuana legalization. My findings show how market disruptions can have severe unintended effects when regulators attempt to sanction organizations without taking down their distribution or production capabilities.