Hanna Onyshchenko

"Firm Performance Under Military Occupation: The case of Ukrainian Firms”

with Vitaliia Yaremko and Andriy Tsapin
Economic Modelling (2026) (Econ4UA, PDF)

This paper examines the effect of military occupation on firm performance during russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Combining official data on territorial control with firm-level balance sheets from Orbis, we exploit quasi-random variation in occupation status across postal areas in 2022-2023 using an event-study design. We find that firms in temporarily occupied but soon-liberated areas experienced moderate sales declines followed by recovery, whereas those under prolonged occupation suffered large and persistent losses. Employment dynamics closely mirror sales, while firm capital remains largely unaffected, suggesting that labour adjustments rather than capital destruction are a key attribute of performance decline. Manufacturing and services are most negatively affected by occupation, while trade firms recover rapidly after de-occupation. This pattern points to the central role of local demand, labour supply shortages, and supply-chain disruptions as the main channels through which occupation depresses firm sales. Overall, these findings highlight that beyond human and social costs, prolonged military occupation entails lasting and sizeable economic losses with little evidence of recovery until liberation.  

Financial Constraints and Capital-Labor Substitution in Response to Monetary Policy (Job market paper)

with Tereza Ranošová

This paper investigates how firm leverage affects the transmission of monetary policy to labor demand. We find that expansionary monetary policy has a stronger effect on the employment of more leveraged firms but a weaker effect on their capital investment. We interpret these findings using a heterogeneous firm New Keynesian model with two types of wholesale firms facing financing constraints that differ by their leverage and a flexible constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production function of both wholesale and retail firms. In the cross-section, more leveraged firms shift to a less capital-intensive production mode in response to easing monetary policy. On aggregate, more leverage dampens the response of capital and, thus, aggregate demand. As a result, employment response is initially muted but later amplified as firms substitute capital for labor.

"Real Effects of Innovation in Debt and Equity Securities” (draft available upon request, slides)

This paper examines financial innovation in U.S. capital markets by analyzing the issuance of new debt and equity instruments by non-financial firms. Drawing on detailed transaction-level data from Refinitiv Eikon we develop a high-dimensional classification of financial products based on key contractual features—including maturity, callability, convertibility, payment structure, and legal form—and identify more than 8,500 distinct product types issued between 1970 and 2020. By linking issuance data to firm-level balance sheet information, we show that firms introducing novel securities tend to be larger and older than those issuing only established products, suggesting that the fixed costs and risks of innovation act as barriers for smaller and younger firms. Additionally, we find that early adopters of new financial instruments subsequently exhibit faster growth in sales, capital expenditures, and employment compared to firms relying solely on traditional securities, consistent with the view that financial innovation is used to support firm expansion.

"Bank specialization and the local effects of trade shocks” 

with Andrea Foschi and Fadi Hassan