Research

Paper available here. [Appendix] [Replication Materials]

Abstract. We link over- and under-confidence in math at ages 8-11 to education and employment outcomes 22 years later among the children of PSID households. About twenty percent of children have markedly biased beliefs about their math ability, and beliefs are strongly gendered. Conditional on measured ability, childhood over- and under-confidence predict adolescent test scores, high school and college graduation, majoring or working in STEM, earnings, and unemployment. Across all metrics, higher confidence predicts better outcomes. These biased beliefs persist into adulthood and could continue to affect outcomes as respondents age, since intermediate outcomes do not fully explain these long-run correlations.

Paper available here. [Appendix]

Abstract. Governments often rely on schools to implement multiple programs targeting child outcomes. How to improve the implementation of these programs is an important, open question. As part of a randomized controlled trial in Odisha, India, we measured the impacts of a nutrition program and a monitoring intervention on the implementation of a pre-existing school-based nutrition program, specifically the Indian government’s iron and folic acid supplementation (IFA) program. The new nutrition intervention distributed a micronutrient mix (MNM) to be added to school meals while the monitoring intervention varied the intensity of monitoring activities. We find that high intensity monitoring improved implementation of the government’s IFA program, while the MNM intervention crowded it out. The net effect is that high intensity monitoring improved child health, while the MNM intervention did not. Both crowd-out of the IFA program and sensitivity to monitoring were predominantly found among schools that were resource or capacity constrained.

Paper available here. [Appendix] 

Abstract. Reducing the rate of anemia is a primary public health concern in many developing countries. This paper studies the Indian government's school-based Iron and Folic Acid (IFA) supplementation program. We provide a descriptive analysis of program implementation patterns across 377 schools in the state of Odisha. We document that the more advantaged blocks had more consistent tablet distribution, and that distribution within the less advantaged blocks was less predictable, and plausibly random. We use this quasi-random variation to estimate the causal effect of the policy using a difference-in-differences strategy. The IFA program had no effect on hemoglobin levels at the mean, but there is a significantly larger effect for moderately anemic students in schools that were more recently distributing tablets, relative to schools that had run out of tablets. These results suggest that school-based supplementation has the potential to improve hemoglobin levels, but that breaks in supplementation – either due to inconsistent tablet distribution or the constraints of a school calendar – limit the long-term efficacy of school-based supplementation programs.

Abstract. School experiences are key to adolescent development, and students from marginalized groups are more likely to be bullied and feel less like they belong at school. LGBTQ identities begin developing in adolescence and LGBTQ students face some of the most significant disparities. This paper uses unique panel data from one of the largest school districts in the US to study how having more LGBTQ peers affects identity development and school experiences using within-school, cross-cohort variation in the share of 9th-grade peers who identified as LGBTQ in 8th grade. Peers are important: having 10pp more LGBTQ peers closes gaps in bullying and belonging between LGBTQ students and their peers by 38 and 54 percent, respectively, and eliminates gaps in leaving the district. The effects do not seem to arise from reductions in stigma, but via larger friendship networks and the opportunity for LGBTQ students to learn about high LGBTQ-acceptance levels. While I document substantial fluidity in how adolescents identify and large social penalties to coming out, having more LGBTQ peers—which lowers these costs—at most weakly reinforces the likelihood that students already identifying as LGBTQ continue to do so and has no effect on other students. Finally, I provide new evidence that the share of students affected by policies targeting LGBTQ students is much larger than standard cross-sectional statistics would suggest, and that LGBTQ students face bullying and belonging disparities long before coming out.

Abstract. Perceived discrimination is widespread but understudied. In two online experiments (N=4,400), I randomly assign workers to be evaluated under procedures with varied potential to discriminate and what workers know about past promotions. Learning that a manager knew race and gender and previously promoted mostly white men leads to perceived discrimination among women and racial-minority men, reduces cooperation with and generosity towards managers, increases reservation wages, and lowers women’s retention. Employers could improve equity and efficiency by reducing perceived discrimination. However, implementing increasingly-common anti-bias hiring policies cannot eradicate perceptions of discrimination when minority groups remain under-represented.

Abstract. Policy progress often advances incrementally, and citizen movements must sustain engagement across wins and losses. Wins could mobilize citizens by building political-efficacy beliefs—perceived government responsiveness to citizen demands—but could also deflate demand for additional policy. In an online experiment (N≈6,000), learning about a major US climate policy slightly increases political-efficacy beliefs, but reduces demand for additional policy and has no effect on climate advocacy. In contrast, combining this information with a fictional narrative linking legislation to citizen action increases political-efficacy beliefs, policy demand, information-gathering about climate marches, and lobbying donations. These findings highlight the power of storytelling to shape political movements. 

Abstract. Mobilizing citizen climate lobbying among Republicans may be a key tool in building political will for bipartisan climate policy in Congress. However, record-high issue polarization—partisan gaps in beliefs—and affective polarization—animosity towards counter-partisans—may hold back efforts to expand the left-leaning citizen climate movement across party lines. We run a series of online experiments with 20,000 participants testing how polarization shapes the spread of citizen movements. When we randomly pair Democrats with Americans across the political spectrum, they are 27% more likely to invite other Democrats than Republicans to email Congress about climate change, even when all of them believe climate change is human-caused. We find three explanations for this outreach gap. First, Democrats correctly believe that their invitation will have half as much impact on Republicans’ action. Second, these strategic beliefs are driven by anticipated affective polarization, or the idea that Republicans will react badly to outreach from Democrats. Finally, Democrats’ own affective polarization matters: they prefer to reach out to co-partisans even when cross-party outreach is as effective.