Abstract: This paper examines the long-term impact of state violence on homicide rates. I analyze the case of Guatemala’s civil war massacres, assembling data on their locations, and linking them to recent homicide rates. Exploring precipitation variation as an instrument for massacres, I provide evidence of an inverse relationship between past victimization and 2016-2019 homicide rates. I find that generalized trust is higher in municipalities with more massacres, which suggests increased local cohesion as a channel connecting past violence with reduced crime rates.
Abstract:This paper explores the Guatemalan National Police Historical Archive (AHPN) to shed light on police behaviors in Guatemala from 1970-1985, a period marked by authoritarianism and limited state capacity. Using Optical Character Recognition (OCR) to analyze scanned documents, the study reveals an unexpected trend: civilian reports to the police largely concerned lost identification, not criminal or political incidents. Power transitions, especially the 1982 coup, triggered significant spikes in detentions, predominantly in the capital, mostly linked to property offenses rather than political activities. This exploration underscores the AHPN's richness as a repository, emphasizing its utility for future interdisciplinary research and advocacy efforts.
Abstract: Following a policy of increased repression to drug trade, Mexico saw a sharp rise in violence. However, this surge was not uniform across the country. Since 2007, a significant disparity emerged in homicide rates between municipalities with a majority indigenous population and those without. This paper demonstrates that an indigenous majority is associated to a resilience against the drug war's impact on homicide rates. Furthermore, such municipalities were less likely to host major Drug Trade Organizations (DTOs). A theoretical model is presented, suggesting that elevated entry barriers in specific territories reduce their attractiveness, making them less prone to host DTOs and the conflicts they bring. I hypothesize that political and cultural barriers to entry may be particularly elevated in areas with ethnic autonomy institutions. In accordance with the model, I find that, within indigenous-majority areas, those with autonomy institutions reported smaller increases in homicides.
(with Julien Picault)
Abstract: This article introduces the Policy Interest Rate Simulator (PIRS) game, designed to help students understand the effects of central bank decisions on interest rates within a simulated economy. In the game, students play the role of a central bank, repeatedly setting policy interest rates. These decisions influence inflation and unemployment over time, while random events add unpredictability, making each playthrough dynamic and engaging. PIRS offers a hands-on, accessible way for economics students to explore monetary policy and its consequences. Players receive real-time feedback on the outcomes of their policy interest rate decisions, making it a valuable tool for both classroom use and independent learning. By simulating real-world central banking processes, the game fosters students' understanding of monetary policy and encourages critical discussions about policy decisions. It can also support classroom debates on central bank mandates, such as the U.S. Federal Reserve's dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices versus New Zealand's single mandate of maintaining price stability.