What Drives the Return and Risk of ESG Mutual Funds? Evidence from Machine Learning
Status: Available upon request.
This paper examines whether machine-learning methods can predict the future returns and realized volatility of ESG mutual funds and whether the predictive information comes from fund characteristics, holdings-based stock characteristics, or ESG information. The analysis uses quarterly data from 2006 to 2024 and combines CRSP mutual fund data, Refinitiv ESG scores, ESG fund classifications, portfolio holdings, and stock-level characteristics.
The results show that future fund volatility is substantially more predictable than returns, with holdings-based stock characteristics providing the strongest and most consistent predictive information. Although return forecasts have limited accuracy in levels, portfolio sorts indicate that the predictions contain economically meaningful cross-sectional information about subsequent fund outcomes. ESG information makes a more limited and model-dependent contribution than fund characteristics and holdings-based information.
Scheduled presentations: 3rd AI in Finance Conference, 2026; Climate Finance & Sustainability Conference, 2026.