GreenARC - Climate Emergency

Evidence of a Climate Emergency

Earth’s systems are breaking down at astonishing speed. Torrents of meltwater pour from Greenland's ice cap. Andrew Freedman and Jason Samenow’s Washington Post report notes that the melting on 31 July 2019 outpaced all data collected since records began in 1950. Daily losses are 50 years ahead of schedule; they were forecast in the climate models for 2070.

A paper in Geophysical Research Letters reveals that the thawing of permafrost in the Canadian High Arctic now exceeds the melting scientists expected to happen in 2090.

Huge wildfires continue to burn across the Arctic. They've released more carbon dioxide in 2019 than in any year since satellite records began nearly two decades ago. According to the World Meteorological Organisation: "A recent study found Earth’s boreal forests are now burning at a rate unseen in at least 10,000 years.”

Current Warming Adds to Future Warming

The Arctic and Antarctic are warming faster than the global average rate. When polar ice melts, it absorbs radiation instead of reflecting it back into space. Methane (which traps 86 times as much heat in the first 20 years after emission as the same weight of CO₂) is released when permafrost and undersea ice melt, and this adds to future warming, as does CO₂ from wildfires.

Huge wildfires and unexpectedly fast melting are just part of the mounting evidence (such as methane blow-holes in Siberia) that we need to take urgent action to tackle the Climate Emergency, or risk passing a tipping point (i.e. a point of no return).

Climate Change Exacerbates Drought

The Climate Council warns that Climate Change exacerbates drought. Passing a climate tipping point could result in disastrous and irrevocable problems. It would be much better to avoid a very difficult and uncertain future and save our precious coral reefs by encouraging our region, our country, and the world to act now and embrace the best, most cost-effective ways to reduce the global temperature rise!

Role of super-pollutants

Methane and black carbon are known as super-pollutants or short-lived-climate-pollutants, because they cause substantial amounts of global warming, but rapidly disappear from the atmosphere if we stop emitting them.

Methane traps 86 times as much heat in the first 20 years after emission as the same weight of CO₂, but most of it decomposes into other substances in those 20 years. Black carbon remains in the air for only a few weeks, but still causes thousands of times more global warming in the 20 years after emission as the same weight of CO₂.

Although CO₂causes the most warming –1.68 W/m² (watts per square metre), the diagram (left) from the US EPA report: Methane and Black carbon, impacts on the Arctic shows that methane (0.97 W/m², including the warming of ground-level ozone formed from CH₄) and black carbon (0.88 W/m²) together cause more warming than CO₂.

Mitigating super pollutants the only way to keep global warming below 2 degrees by 2050

Three experts warn "Unless we rapidly slow down these self-amplifying feedback mechanisms (by reducing super-pollutant emissions), we could lose the first major battle of climate change and face worse problems in the future" Mario Molina (Nobel prizewinner), V. Ramanathan (renowned climate scientist) and Durwood Zaelke (President, Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development). "Mitigation of super pollutants is the only way to keep it (global warming) below 2 degrees by 2050, while we are waiting for the CO₂ measures to kick in."

So what can we do to tackle the Climate Crisis?

· let other people know about the Climate Emergency, especially the critical importance of tackling super-pollutant emissions if we want to keep the global temperature rise well below 2 degrees. Sign the Climate Emergency Petition.

· oppose activities such as ‘fracking’, unnecessary burning of vegetation, including agricultural and forestry waste that produces methane and black carbon

· lobby governments for better monitoring of methane emissions from mines and pipelines, for programs to help developing countries replace cooking fires with clean stoves, and an effective overall strategy to avoid short-lived-climate-pollutant (SLCP) emissions (good examples are California's SLCP strategy and SF Bay's Spare the Air Cool the Climate

· switch from wood and gas heating to an efficient, affordable reverse cycle air conditioner (also called a heat pump). As explained in a New Scientist Report and Video: log-burning stoves are harming our health and speeding up global warming (Feb 2017)

· don’t let refrigerants (another super-pollutant) escape

· compost food waste & support City to Soil programs

· keep an eye on research to reduce methane emissions and improve feed efficiency of cattle and sheep

Many of us are concerned about the climate and have reduced CO₂ emissions and saved money by lowering gas and non-renewable electricity use. We’ve installed efficient appliances, insulation and rooftop solar and don’t leave power-hungry appliances on ‘standby’. Some of us have also reduced CO₂ emissions from petrol or diesel use, perhaps even enjoying the health benefits of walking or cycling. But we also need to tackle super-pollutant emissions to have any hope of keeping the temperature rise below 2 degrees.

Act now, to avoid climate destabilization!

Renewable electricity is now cheaper than coal power. New England already generates more than twice as much renewable electricity as we use. But we can do more, e.g. we'd all benefit from lower energy bills and less global warming, if we successfully lobbied governments for better energy-efficiency standards for new buildings and programs to make existing buildings more comfortable and energy-efficient.

And remember that methane and black carbon together cause more warming than CO₂. As shown in the graph there’s no hope of achieving the target set at Paris by just reducing CO₂emissions. But we can achieve the target by slashing super-pollutant emissions. It would halve the rate of warming over the next 20 years, reduce the stress on our Barrier Reef and buy time to replace fossil fuels with cheaper, renewable energy for homes, businesses and transport.