Publications — Journal articles

• "The financial uncertainty of climate-related assets: A factor stochastic volatility approach"
  Journal of Commodity Markets, Accepted. working paper here
  
  

• "Intellectual property rights and the efficiency of international production networks: evidence from the automotive industry" (with Giuseppe Cavaliere and Alireza Naghavi)
  Journal of Economic Geography (2026), https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbag042
  
  

• "Macroeconomic spillovers of weather shocks across U.S. states" (with Emanuele Bacchiocchi and Andrea Bastianin)
  Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics (2026), vol. 88(1), 141-156, https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.70011  [replication package]
  
  

• "Factor network autoregressions" (with Matteo Barigozzi and Giuseppe Cavaliere)
  Journal of Business & Economic Statistics (2025), vol.43(4), 1105-1118, https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2025.2476695   [working paper]  [replication package]
  
  

• "Regime-switching density forecasts using economists' scenarios"
  Journal of Forecasting (2025), vol. 44, 833-845, https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3228
  
  

• "Analyzing inter-hemispheric climate change asymmetries with a cointegrated vector autoregression"
  Environmetrics (2025), vol. 36(6): e70026. https://doi.org/10.1002/env.70026
  
  

• "Exchange rates and political uncertainty: the Brexit case" (with Paolo Manasse and Giulio Trigilia)
  Economica (2024), vol. 91(362), 621-652, https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12509
  
  

• "Financial-cycle ratios and medium-term predictions of GDP: Evidence from the United States"
  International Journal of Forecasting (2024), vol. 40(2), 777-795,  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2023.05.007
  
  

• "Gains from trade and their quantification: Does sectoral disaggregation matter?" (with Stefano Bolatto)
  International Economics (2023), vol. 174, 44-68, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2023.03.001
  
  

• "Measuring global macroeconomic uncertainty and cross-country uncertainty spillovers"
  Econometrics (2023), vol. 11(1):2, https://doi.org/10.3390/econometrics11010002
  Global Macroeconomic Uncertainty (GMU) index: updated series 2000q1-2023q3 available here
  
  

• "Funding liquidity, credit risk and unconventional monetary policy in the Euro area: A GVAR approach"
  Economics Bulletin (2022), vol. 42 (2), 494-512, link here  

Book chapters and other publications

• "The digital and energy transition: opportunities and constraints" (with Paolo Manasse) [in Italian]
  Politica economica (2025), Società editrice il Mulino, 1-2/2025, pp. 283-299, https://doi.org/10.1429/121283
  
  

• "Taking stock of Italy's National Recovery and Resilience Plan" (with Paolo Manasse)  [in Italian]
  Politica economica (2024), Società editrice il Mulino, 1-2/2024, pp. 237-250, https://doi.org/10.1429/117399
  
  

• "Fiscal policy and public debt after COVID-19" (with Paolo Manasse)
  Book chapter in:  The Italian Economy after COVID-19 (eds: Giorgio Bellettini and Andrea Goldstein),  Bononia University Press, Bologna (2020).
  https://buponline.com/prodotto/the-italian-economy-after-covid-19/

Working papers

• "Decarbonization, public debt, and sovereign credit risk in Europe: Interaction effects and spillovers” (with Luca Zanin)
  (2025), available at SSRN, link here
  
  

Work in Progress

• Sovereign bond market reactions to fiscal consolidation announcements (with Massimo Giuliodori)