It's been almost ten years since the Obergefell decision legalized marriage everywhere in the United States, and twenty years since it became a possibility for same-sex couples in Massachusetts (first state to legalize it). The story appeared straightforward enough, couples are allowed to marry, and their marriage rates are bound to increase. First came Massachusetts in 2004, followed by Connecticut in 2008, Vermont and Iowa in 2009, New Hampshire in 2010, and New York in 2011. However, data from the American Community Survey (ACS) show a surprising evolution in the share of same-sex couples that choose marriage every year.
Apparently, none of these legalizations had any effect on same-sex couples choosing marriage over cohabitation. Throughout the period about 15% of gays and 5% of lesbians in same-sex couples preferred marriage. It was not until 2012 that marriage became a popular alternative to cohabitation. In just one year, nearly half of the same-sex couples in the country married.
We want to understand this story. In our first paper we explore the real causal effect early same-sex marriage legalizations had on marriage among same-sex couples (draft coming soon). In future deliveries we will be looking at trends in the number of people that identify as gay/lesbian, how children enter the equation, and attempt to explain the rise of marriage in 2012.