Working Papers
Presented at: Kiel-CEPR Monetary Policy Conference 2025 (Berlin), Applied Macroeconomics in a Changing World (Oslo, 2025), EEA Annual Congress 2023 (Barcelona), Oslo Macro Conference 2023, the European Central Bank and other seminars. Previously circulated as The Energy-Price Channel of (European) Monetary Policy.
Friend, not Foe? Monetary Policy and Energy Prices, with Alexander Kriwoluzky, Frederik Kurcz, and Ben Schumann
(revise & resubmit at Journal of Political Economy: Macroeconomics)
Abstract: In this paper, we first present a new empirical finding by showing that the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decisions significantly influence global energy prices. Through Lucas-critique-robust counterfactual analysis, we show that a central bank's ability to affect global energy prices strengthens the monetary transmission to inflation and alleviates the inflation-output tradeoff. We illustrate the relevance of these results by examining their role in the optimal policy response to an energy supply shock. Our estimates show that the ability of monetary policy to affect global energy prices halves the tightening necessary to stabilize inflation and mitigates the corresponding economic contraction.
Presented at: CEBRA 2026 (Copenhagen), SNDE 2026 (Lisbon), IAAE Annual Conference 2025 (Turin), ifo Workshop on Macroeconomics and International Finance 2025, Bundesbank research seminar, Banca d'Italia research seminar and other seminars.
Collateral Policy Surprises, with Pia Hüttl and Matthias Kaldorf
Abstract: Central bank collateral policy specifies which assets banks can pledge as collateral to obtain central bank funding and is an important determinant of liquidity in the banking system. We propose a high-frequency identification approach to study the systematic effects of central bank collateral policy on banks, financial markets, and asset prices. We identify collateral policy surprises using intraday bank stock price changes around Eurosystem collateral policy announcements. Expansionary collateral policy surprises lead to excess returns of bank stocks, a decline in common volatility measures, and a reduction in bank default risk, in particular for riskier banks. They also compress core-periphery government bond spreads, even for policy changes that are unrelated to the collateral treatment of government bonds. The uneven transmission of collateral policy through banks to sovereign bond markets is distinct from both central bank asset purchases and conventional monetary policy.
Presented at: IAAE Annual Conference 2026 (Lisbon), Developments in Macroeconomics and Macrofinance Workshop 2025 (Leipzig), Scottish Economic Society Annual Conference 2024 (Glasgow), EEA Annual Congress 2023 (Barcelona), VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg), Society for Computational Economics Annual Conference 2023 (Nice), University of Bonn and other seminars.
Macroeconomic Effects of Tax and Spending Changes in a Monetary Union, with Malte Rieth
Abstract: We study the macroeconomic effects of fiscal shocks in countries within a monetary union, where fiscal policy is national but monetary policy is common and does not respond to country-specific shocks. A general equilibrium model calibrated to the average euro area country predicts government consumption and government investment multipliers of 1 to 1.5, compared with consumption tax and income tax multipliers of 0 to 0.5. We confirm these predictions using a panel structural vector autoregression identified through time fixed effects and cross-country heteroskedasticity. Overall, spending policy appears more efficient for macroeconomic stabilization than tax policy in a monetary union.
Presented at: CEPR Paris Symposium 2025 (poster), Econometric Society European Winter Meeting 2025 (Nicosia), VfS Annual Conference 2025 (Cologne), CEBRA Annual Meeting 2025 (Boston), International Monetary Fund research seminar and other seminars.
Insulation through Credibility: Navigating U.S. Monetary Spillovers
Abstract: I show that inflation-targeting credibility is a key determinant of an economy’s exposure to U.S. monetary spillovers and the resulting policy trade-offs. Using a high-frequency event study framework, I document that U.S. monetary tightening raises market-implied expectations of medium-term inflation and domestic policy rates more strongly in economies with weaker credibility. At long horizons, market-implied inflation expectations rise significantly in weak-credibility economies but remain unchanged in strong-credibility economies. To rationalize these findings and assess their macroeconomic implications, I develop an open-economy New Keynesian model with imperfectly anchored long-run inflation expectations. Households and firms are uncertain about the long-run inflation anchor and update their beliefs through adaptive learning, with weaker credibility making beliefs more responsive to realized inflation. Following a U.S. monetary tightening, domestic currency depreciation generates inflationary pressures that, when credibility is weak, shift beliefs about the long-run inflation anchor. These beliefs feed into forward-looking price and wage setting, amplifying inflationary spillovers. The amplified inflation response elicits stronger domestic monetary tightening, generating greater output losses. Cross-country macroeconomic evidence from vector autoregressions supports the model’s predictions. Weaker inflation-targeting credibility amplifies U.S. monetary spillovers and worsens the trade-off between inflation and output stabilization
Work in Progress
Presented at: 2nd Conference on Applied Macroeconomics (Banca d'Italia), 6th Sailing the Macro Workshop, SNDE 2026 (Lisbon), University of Warsaw-DIW "Text Mining and Machine Learning in Macroeconomics and Finance" Workshop (Warsaw, 2025), International Monetary Fund research seminar and other seminars.
Fiscal Policy Transmission: High-frequency evidence, with Nikhil Patel
(working paper available upon request)
Abstract: We construct a novel daily database of U.S. fiscal policy news and derive from it a daily proxy for fiscal news surprises. Expansionary realizations of the proxy lead professional forecasters to revise their federal deficit expectations upward and are followed by a persistently higher path of realized federal debt. Forecast revisions and subsequent debt dynamics therefore validate the proxy as credible fiscal information not previously incorporated in expectations. Using a daily structural vector autoregression, we find that expansionary fiscal news raises long-term Treasury yields through greater compensation for duration risk and higher expected short-term rates. Far-forward inflation compensation rises persistently, signaling longer-run repricing of expected inflation and inflation risk. Near-term inflation compensation and equity prices rise while equity-market volatility falls, consistent with markets revising upward their expectations of near-term aggregate demand. Empirical monetary-policy counterfactuals show that alternative policy rules strongly shape this near-term demand-related repricing, but have considerably less influence on long-horizon inflation compensation. U.S. fiscal news also has sizable international spillovers to long-term sovereign yields and equity prices. Finally, we discuss theoretical mechanisms that can jointly rationalize these findings.
News-driven Fluctuations and Monetary Transmission, with Hedda Thorell
ECB Lamfalussy Research Fellowship 2026