Abstract: We use the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war as a quasi-natural experiment to examine how geopolitical risk influences the green transition in the green and sustainable loan (GSLL) market. Using bilateral trade exposure as a proxy for geopolitical risk across 54 major economies, we find a significant postwar increase in the number and volume of GSLL originations in highly exposed countries. This suggests firms pursue green and sustainable investments as a hedge against geopolitical risks. Industry-level analysis shows that this increase is driven by low-exposed industries, while high-exposed industries exhibit a negative but statistically insignificant response. Exploring potential mechanisms at firm-level, we find that GSLL borrowers in low-exposed industries experience improved EBIT margins, while those in high-exposed industries face declining operating cash flows. These results highlight two distinct channels: low-exposed firms leverage green loans for growth and opportunity, while high-exposed firms prioritize financial survival by diverting resources away from green investments.
Best Paper Award (2025 International Conference in Banking and Financial Studies*)
Presented at: International Conference in Banking and Financial Studies* (2025), ESSEC-Luxembourg-CEPR Conference on Sustainable Financial Intermediation* (2025), 6th NSFE* (2025 - poster session), Sustainability and Green Finance Workshop* (2025 - poster session)
*Indicates presentation by coauthor