Giuseppe Pagano Giorgianni

Welcome to my personal webpage. I'm a Phd candidate in Sapienza University of Rome.

Research interests: Empirical macroeconomics, agents' beliefs, inflation dynamics.

email: giuseppe.paganogiorgianni@uniroma1.it

Ongoing research

Belief Distortions and Uncertainty about Inflation, with S. Fasani (Lancaster University), V. Patella (Sapienza University of Rome), and L. Rossi (Lancaster University). Working Paper. WORKING PAPER AVAILABLE HERE

This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of a belief distortion shock—defined as the unexpected component of household inflation expectations after accounting for professional forecasts and observable fundamentals. Using survey data, U.S. macroeconomic variables, and machine-learning methods, we identify this shock and examine its effects both within and outside the zero lower bound (ZLB), conditioning on household inflation uncertainty. The shock raises inflation, uncertainty, and unemployment in normal times. At the ZLB, the shock reduces real interest rates and becomes expansionary; however, the accompanying rise in inflation uncertainty dampens or can even reverse these effects. A New Keynesian model with belief shocks replicates these dynamics and matches the empirical patterns of inflation uncertainty.

Model implied impulse responses

Presented (unexaustive list): NWSSDTP PhD Conference (University of Manchester, Manchester - poster session); 12th Annual MMF PhD Conference (2025, Loughborough University, Loughborough); 32nd Annual Symposium of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics (2025, University of Texas; San Antonio); Lancaster Workshop on Empirical and Theoretical Macroeconomics (2025, Lancaster University; Lancaster - poster session); Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, workshop for young researchers (2024; online); 17th UniTo-CCA PhD Workshop in Economics (2024, Collegio Carlo Alberto; Turin); 2nd Workshop on Experimetrics & Behavioral Economics (2024; Soleto); 6th Behavioral Macroeconomics Workshop (2024, Heidelberg University and Bamberg University; Heidelberg); 28th International Conference on Macroeconomic Analysis and International Finance (2024, University of Crete; Crete); RCEA in Economics, Econometrics, and Finance (2024, Brunel University; London).

Gas price shocks, Uncertainty and Price setting: Evidences from Italian Firms. [very preliminary draft]

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