Giuseppe Pagano Giorgianni

Welcome to my personal webpage. I'm a Phd candidate in Sapienza University of Rome.

Research interests: Empirical macroeconomics, agents' beliefs, inflation dynamics.

email: giuseppe.paganogiorgianni@uniroma1.it

Ongoing research

Belief and Uncertainty about Inflation, with S. Fasani (Lancaster University), V. Patella (Sapienza University of Rome), and L. Rossi (Lancaster University). Working Paper. [WORKING PAPER AVAILABLE HERE]

This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of an inflation belief shock—an unexpected increase in household inflation expectations relative to a full-information rational forecast. We identify the shock using machine-learning methods applied to U.S. survey data and a large set of news, macroeconomic, global, and financial variables. In normal times, the shock raises inflation while reducing consumption and increasing unemployment. At the zero lower bound, it lowers real interest rates, boosts consumption, and reduces unemployment. Inflation uncertainty rises in both regimes, dampening the expansionary effects at the ZLB. A theoretical model replicates these findings, highlighting the need for monetary policy to stabilize both inflation beliefs and uncertainty about inflation.

Model implied impulse responses

Presented (unexaustive list): NWSSDTP PhD Conference (University of Manchester, Manchester - poster session); 12th Annual MMF PhD Conference (2025, Loughborough University, Loughborough); 32nd Annual Symposium of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics (2025, University of Texas; San Antonio); Lancaster Workshop on Empirical and Theoretical Macroeconomics (2025, Lancaster University; Lancaster - poster session); Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, workshop for young researchers (2024; online); 17th UniTo-CCA PhD Workshop in Economics (2024, Collegio Carlo Alberto; Turin); 2nd Workshop on Experimetrics & Behavioral Economics (2024; Soleto); 6th Behavioral Macroeconomics Workshop (2024, Heidelberg University and Bamberg University; Heidelberg); 28th International Conference on Macroeconomic Analysis and International Finance (2024, University of Crete; Crete); RCEA in Economics, Econometrics, and Finance (2024, Brunel University; London).

The Role of Firm Heterogeneity for the Transmission of Aggregate Shocks. with M.Lenza (ECB), L. Rossi (Lancaster University) and E.Savoia (Risksbank) [ WORKING PAPER AVAILABLE HERE]

We study whether firm-level heterogeneity helps explain U.S. macroeconomic fluctuations in response to aggregate shocks. Using quarterly Compustat and CRSP data from 1985 to 2024, we construct two revenue-based statistics inspired by the Melitz (2003) model: the average firm and the marginal near-default firm. These statistics summarize key features of the firm distribution. We augment a Bayesian VAR with these measures and compare its performance to a standard aggregate VAR and to a functional VAR that incorporates the full cross-sectional distribution of firm revenues. We find that firm-level heterogeneity contains information not captured by aggregate variables. Including the two statistics allows the VAR to closely replicate the impulse responses obtained using the functional VAR and improves out-of-sample forecast accuracy.

[NEW] Food for Tought: Inflation Perceptions and Household Heterogeneity . with A. Guerriero (Sapienza University) . [WORKING PAPER AVAILABLE HERE]

Perceived inflation in the Euro Area systematically departs from measured HICP inflation. This gap arises because households place disproportionate weight on salient consumption items, especially frequently purchased goods such as food. Since these items also tend to adjust prices more often, they generate inflation signals that are noisier and more volatile than aggregate inflation. At the micro level, households that are more exposed to food in their consumption basket exhibit a stronger response of perceived inflation to an adverse food supply shock. Additionally, stronger inflation perceptions are accompanied by a sharper increase in pessimism regarding consumption attitudes. At the macro level, perceived inflation reacts with more intensity and persistence compared with actual inflation, while retail sales decline. To interpret these results, we develop a HANK framework with non-homothetic preferences and subjective inflation perceptions. The model shows that heterogeneity in consumption baskets and the greater price volatility of salient goods jointly amplify the effects of negative supply shocks affecting those goods, turning food price disturbances into broader and more persistent contractions in economic activity.

Gas price shocks, Uncertainty and Price setting: Evidence from Italian Firms. [PRELIMINARY DRAFT AVAILABLE HERE]

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