Giuseppe Pagano Giorgianni

Welcome to my personal webpage. I'm a Phd candidate in Sapienza University of Rome.

Research interests: Empirical macroeconomics, agents' beliefs, inflation dynamics.

email: giuseppe.paganogiorgianni@uniroma1.it

Ongoing research

Belief and Uncertainty about Inflation, with S. Fasani (Lancaster University), V. Patella (Sapienza University of Rome), and L. Rossi (Lancaster University). Working Paper. [WORKING PAPER AVAILABLE HERE]

This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of an inflation belief shock—an unexpected increase in household inflation expectations relative to a full-information rational forecast. We identify the shock using machine-learning methods applied to U.S. survey data and a large set of news, macroeconomic, global, and financial variables. In normal times, the shock raises inflation while reducing consumption and increasing unemployment. At the zero lower bound, it lowers real interest rates, boosts consumption, and reduces unemployment. Inflation uncertainty rises in both regimes, dampening the expansionary effects at the ZLB. A theoretical model replicates these findings, highlighting the need for monetary policy to stabilize both inflation beliefs and uncertainty about inflation.

Model implied impulse responses

Presented (unexaustive list): NWSSDTP PhD Conference (University of Manchester, Manchester - poster session); 12th Annual MMF PhD Conference (2025, Loughborough University, Loughborough); 32nd Annual Symposium of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics (2025, University of Texas; San Antonio); Lancaster Workshop on Empirical and Theoretical Macroeconomics (2025, Lancaster University; Lancaster - poster session); Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, workshop for young researchers (2024; online); 17th UniTo-CCA PhD Workshop in Economics (2024, Collegio Carlo Alberto; Turin); 2nd Workshop on Experimetrics & Behavioral Economics (2024; Soleto); 6th Behavioral Macroeconomics Workshop (2024, Heidelberg University and Bamberg University; Heidelberg); 28th International Conference on Macroeconomic Analysis and International Finance (2024, University of Crete; Crete); RCEA in Economics, Econometrics, and Finance (2024, Brunel University; London).

The Role of Firm Heterogeneity for the Transmission of Aggregate Shocks. with M.Lenza (ECB), L. Rossi (Lancaster University) and E.Savoia (Risksbank) [DRAFT COMING SOON]

We study whether firm-level heterogeneity helps explain U.S. macroeconomic fluctuations in response to aggregate shocks. Using quarterly Compustat and CRSP data from 1985 to 2024, we construct two revenue-based statistics inspired by the Melitz (2003) model: the average firm and the marginal near-default firm. These statistics summarize key features of the firm distribution. We augment a Bayesian VAR with these measures and compare its performance to a standard aggregate VAR and to a functional VAR that incorporates the full cross-sectional distribution of firm revenues. We find that firm-level heterogeneity contains information not captured by aggregate variables. Including the two statistics allows the VAR to closely replicate the impulse responses obtained using the functional VAR and improves out-of-sample forecast accuracy.

Gas price shocks, Uncertainty and Price setting: Evidence from Italian Firms. [PRELIMINARY DRAFT AVAILABLE HERE]

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