Research

This paper investigates the effect of technological exposure on UK employment polarization during 1993–2014. The identification strategy exploits variation across local labour markets in the historical specialization in routine-intensive activities. The Routine Biased Technical Change hypothesis is tested and only partly corroborated. Strikingly, I find no effect of technological exposure on the growth of high-skilled non-routine cognitive jobs. I claim that the rapid educational upgrading of the 1990s may help explain this result. This is supported by evidence of a marked increase in outflows of both graduates and non-graduates from the top moving down the occupational ladder since 1991. 

The extent to which firms respond to labor supply shocks has important implications for local and national economies. We exploit firm-level panel data on product and process innovation activities in the United Kingdom and find that the large, unanticipated, low-skill labor supply (immigration) shock generated by the 2004 expansion of the European Union to Eastern European countries increased process innovation and reduced product innovation, with overall innovation activity going up. This implies that the innovation response to labor supply shocks may be more nuanced than the previous literature has suggested. Both of these effects are increasing in the low-skill intensity of firm production. In addition, the reduction in product innovation is lessened for firms whose output is sold locally, which is consistent with a demand side effect generated by the labor supply shock. 

Exploiting high-frequency vaccination data for COVID-19 and social capital measures at the municipal level in Italy between January and October 2021, this paper estimates the effect of social capital on vaccination compliance. We find that weekly vaccination coverage increased up to 1.60 percentage points more in municipalities with higher social capital. Results do not differ by gender and the effect is mainly driven by younger generations. Our findings shed light on the role of social capital as a driver of health protective behavior. 

We estimate the impacts of PICSA training and meetings on lead farmers in Malawi, taking farmers in four districts where PICSA operated, and farmers in four other districts where the programme was not present.

We compare outcomes in farming practice, yields obtained, livelihood decisions and food security between lead farmers who participated in PICSA and those who did not. Because selection into the programme was not random, we use propensity score matching and regression adjustment to correct for potential selection bias.

PICSA lead farmers used seasonal forecasts to plan farm decisions, change crop activities, increase maize yields, and improve their food security. Differences between them and the control group were, in most cases, significant.

This paper estimates the causal effects of extreme temperatures and a related adaptation policy on workplace accidents in Spain, combining administrative records on occupational accidents with high-resolution weather data. Both cold and heat raise the incidence of work accidents, though with different magnitudes: ice days (maximum temperatures <0◦C) increase workplace accidents by 14%, while hot days (35-40◦C) raise them by 4.7%, relative to days in the 15-20◦C range. Cold disproportionately affects women, older workers, permanent employees, and indoor or commuting workers, whereas heat poses greater risks for men, temporary workers, immigrants, and outdoor labourers. To examine the role of adaptation policy, we exploit a 2015 reform of Spain’s national heat alert system, which replaced purely climate-based temperature thresholds with criteria incorporating epidemiological evidence. Difference-in-differences and event-study estimates indicate that the reform reduced workplace accidents by 6.6%, with larger effects for temporary workers (9.2%) and for temperature-related injurie (16.4%). Our findings highlight the importance of targeted climate-adaptation policies in reducing occupational risks.

This paper analyzes the impact of school entry age policy on adolescent risk–taking behaviors. In Spain, children must begin primary education in the year they turn six, with a January 1st cutoff date, leading to relative age differences within each academic cohort. Using data from the Spanish School Survey on Drug Use, we analyze a broad range of risky behaviors, including substance use, gambling, gaming, internet use, and sexual activity among students in compulsory education. By comparing students born just before and after the cutoff date, we find that younger students (born below the cutoff) are less likely to engage in risky behaviors compared to older students (born above the cutoff) in the same birth cohort. These results hold across various robustness checks, including using different bandwidths. Further analysis suggests that differences in absolute age—reflecting differences in maturity—and the educational cycle contribute to these findings. When controlling for age differences, young–for–grade appear more likely to drink alcohol, smoke marijuana and tobacco, and use internet compulsively. These results are primarily driven by boys. Additional exploration suggests that most behavioral differences fade out by late adolescence in high school. This research broadens our understanding of the non–academic impacts of school entry age policies contributing to the literature on education policy and adolescent development.

We conduct a randomized controlled trial in rural Pakistan, comparing the effects of a remote awareness campaign with and without Imam-led loudspeaker endorsements on strategies to contain disease spread. Our results show that labor supply and social interactions decrease significantly only when religious leaders support the campaign, particularly among men. These results cannot be explained by differences in the mode or frequency of treatment across groups. Our őndingsÐcompatible with predictions from a model that analyzes the individual trade-off between prevention beneőts and losses from forgone income - highlight the critical role of religious őgures in shaping public responses to health crises.