Job market paper
5-year yield spread with German government bonds
A European Safe Asset? Not Without the Investors (with Juri Marcucci)
We study bonds issued by the European Union (EU) as joint and several liabilities of its member countries and show that they pay higher interest rates than comparably safe and large sovereign issuers. The spread reflects their greater sensitivity to adverse market shocks, which becomes particularly pronounced during periods of monetary tightening. Using novel data, we document that EU bonds have a small investor base because they are excluded from major fixed-income indices due to their lack of formal sovereign status. This exclusion lowers expected prices during crises, making EU bonds unattractive to investors with liquidity needs, such as mutual funds and foreign central banks. Expectations of state-contingent purchases by the European Central Bank (ECB) can substantially compress this premium even when not directed at EU bonds. A demand-based asset pricing framework suggests that the spread would be negligible if the EU were recognized as a fully sovereign issuer and a new safe asset would arise.
Presentations: Insightful Minds in International Macro (2025), Carey Finance Conference (2025), HEC Economics PhD Conference (2025), ASSA Annual Meeting (2025, poster), Bank of Italy lunch seminar (2024), Macro Finance Research Summer Session (2024, poster), Society for Economic Dynamics (2024), Sovereign Debt Research and Management Conference (2024), Macro Finance Society (2024, poster)
Awards: UniCredit Econ JM Best Paper Award (2025)
Op-eds: Bruegel (December 2022), VoxEU (December 2025)
Policy events: European Parliament (May 2023), Fondazione Astrid (January 2025)
Working papers
Change in welfare for risky and safe countries for different fiscal arrangements
Fiscal integration as a Pareto improvement
Fiscal integration in a currency union is generally understood as a transfer from fiscally strong to fiscally weak member states. I show that the right institutional design eliminates the trade-off by combining common debt issuance with partial common taxation that members cannot default on. I characterise a fiscal threshold for the common taxation parameter above which fiscal integration eliminates the incentive for the risky country to default, and I derive analytical welfare decompositions for each country. The risky country gains through interest-rate savings on common debt and an equilibrium commitment channel on the residual; the safe country gains through reduced spillovers from default. They both benefit from an implicit risk-sharing instrument given imperfectly correlated business cycles and a calibration suggests that this effect is important. Extensions to convenience yields, the role of the common debt as a reserve asset, and potential reversal in the status of countries enlarge the region of Pareto improvements.
Awards: ECB Lamfalussy Research Fellowship (2024).
Network of IP agreements among US corporations
The market for intellectual capital (with Bruno Pellegrino)
We use a novel data source to characterize the market for intellectual property among large US corporations through the licensing of proprietary technology and trademarks. We recover the network of agreements and show that it is a large market with potential for spillovers from one pair of companies to other entities that are related as customers, suppliers, or competitors. We model the strategic choice of firms to license part of their IP to another firm when taking into consideration the interaction of increased productivity with the network structure of the product market. Since firms do not internalize the positive spillovers from technology transfers, there is scope for policy to subsidize the search process. We show that the predictions from the model are clearly detectable in the data, with the pattern of agreements being consistent with firms making a strategic choice when transferring proprietary technology and trademarks.
Working in progress
Complete market segmentation and self-fulfilling crises (with Vittorio Siracusa)
Other Publications
Do financial markets consider European common debt a safe asset? (with Luis Garicano)
Bruegel blog, December 2022
A European safe asset will require bolder steps
VoxEU column, December 2025
Policy events
"Workshop on EU borrowing costs: drivers and dynamics"
European Parliament, Brussels
Here are the details of the event, my slides and a recording of my testimony