Research

Working paper:

• Quantifying Nature-Related Risks and Opportunities: a Novel Metric for Assessing Ecosystem Integrity and its Economic Impact (with Benedetta Falsetti and Stefano Tripodi)

SSRN Working Paper No. 4948659, Sep. 2024 [Working Paper] 

Growing recognition of the intertwined nature of climate-related risks and ecosystem health has shifted the focus of economic and financial agents from climate change alone to a broader consideration of ecosystem integrity. In response to this need, we introduce the Ecosystem Condition Index (ECI), a novel metric designed to assess ecosystem integrity by integrating key ecological indicators such as species abundance, forest landscape integrity, and the presence of threatened species. This metric provides a detailed assessment of ecosystem health across a 1km x 1km grid. Our empirical analysis investigates the relationship between the ECI and agricultural Gross Value Added (GVA) in France, Italy, and Germany, uncovering a significant negative correlation between ECI loss and GVA, especially in regions experiencing ecosystem degradation. These findings underscore the critical role of ecosystem integrity in sustaining agricultural productivity and offer empirical support for integrating ecosystem condition into economic models. This innovative approach provides policymakers with a robust economic rationale for conserving natural capital, addressing both nature-related and climate-related risks, and ensuring a sustainable balance between economic growth and environmental stewardship. 

[JEL Codes: Q10, Q51, Q56, Q57, O13.] 

Working paper:

• Assessing Ecosystem Integrity and its Economic Impact in Nordic and Baltic countries (with Nicoletta Batini and Stefano Tripodi)

Forthcoming.

Working paper:

• The Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A European Sector Analysis (with Kamiar Mohaddes) 

We investigate the long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change on output and labour productivity of European industrial sectors, using a panel data set composed of the 281 European regions at NUTS 2 administration level from 1980 to 2017. Moreover, we analyse the main transmission channels through which climate change influence the European economic activity, shedding lights on its impact on investments, employment and hours worked. We find all sectors are diversely influenced by temperature and precipitation variations from their historical norms. Furthermore, we find heterogeneous effects over the sectors of more and less developed regions in Europe, without finding any stronger impacts in the less developed ones. Agriculture, construction and financial services sectors - the latter through the insurance industry - are the most affected sectors. 

[JEL Codes: C33, O40, O44, O52, Q51, Q54, R11.] 

Work in progress:

• Energy Dependency and Long-Run Growth 

FEEM Working Paper No. 42, 2022 [Working Paper]

This article investigates whether the degree of energy dependency of countries influences their macroeconomic performance in terms of long-run growth. Specifically, I study whether the impact of energy price changes on economic growth differs depending on a country's degree of energy dependency. There are two novel aspects in this paper; firstly, all energy commodities are considered, not only oil, and secondly, this work goes beyond the conventional distinction between energy importing and exporting countries. I claim that energy importing and exporting countries are too heterogeneous in terms of net energy imports, energy consumption, and level of development to be clustered and analyzed together. Relying on a sample clusterisation in groups of countries with a similar degree of energy dependency and using a cross-sectionally augmented panel autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) approach, I show that countries with a high degree of energy dependency are associated with a negative and significant long-run energy price elasticity of GDP, while countries with a low degree experience the opposite effect, and more balanced countries are less or not significantly affected. Moreover, I contribute to the resource curse paradox showing that the energy price volatility negatively affects the long-run economic growth of countries with a low degree of energy dependency, but it does not hamper the long-run growth of other countries. I argue that the impact of energy price changes differs across countries with a different degree of energy dependency and that a balanced degree of energy dependency is preferable. Therefore, I suggest major energy importers should reduce their degree of energy dependency, while major energy exporters may differentiate their energy production, avoiding to rely only on fossil sources. Renewable sources may be a key driver to improve the management of the degree of energy dependency. [JEL Codes: E02, C23, O13, O43, Q33, Q43.]. 

Policy Work: 

• Un Ruolo Inedito per le Politiche Ambientali: Cambiare le Abitudini (A new role for Environmental Policies: Changing the Habits), with Professor Gloria Regonini and Professor Roberto Pedersini

Evaluating the Environmental Policies of Lombardy Region, Italy.

Department of Social and Political Science, University of Milan.

Over the past decade, Lombardy's environmental policies have significantly evolved due to the climate emergency, mainly due to EU new goals. Assessment criteria have shifted from jurisdictional conflicts to measurable outcomes based on EU directives. This new framework emphasizes actual results, highlighting both achievements and shortcomings, with EU infringement procedures and international comparisons underscoring issues like water quality and land use change. Public awareness has risen as scientific evidence increasingly links environmental quality to health outcomes. These changes necessitate integrating international standards, enhancing expertise in natural sciences within administrations, and improving communication with citizens to increase civic engagement.