Research

My research fields are monetary economics, monetary policy, oil market dynamics and macroeconometrics

Link to my RePEc/IDEAS research page that also contains an overview of my research papers, including abstracts and citations

Please send me an e-mail if you want the computer code of one of my papers

Recent (working) papers

"International food commodity prices and missing (dis)inflation in the euro area", revise and re-submit at The Review of Economics and Statistics

"The impact of food prices on conflict revisited" (with Jasmien De Winne), revise and re-submit at Journal of Business and Economic Statistics

"Agricultural price shocks and business cycles: a global warning for advanced economies" (with Jasmien De Winne)

"Monetary policy transmission and trade-offs in the United States: old and new" (with Boris Hofmann)

"The transmission mechanism of credit support policies in the euro area" (with Jef Boeckx and Maite De Sola Perea), revise and re-submit at European Economic Review

"Wage indexation and monetary policy regimes" (with Selien De Schryder and Joris Wauters), revise and re-submit at Journal of Macroeconomics

"Endogenous wage indexation and aggregate shocks" (with Julio Carrillo and Joris Wauters

(forthcoming) Publications

"Heterogeneous government spending multipliers in the era surrounding the Great Recession" (with Marco Bernardini and Selien De Schryder),The Review of Economics and Statistics, forthcoming

"Private debt overhang and the government spending multiplier: Evidence for the United States" (with Marco Bernardini), Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2018, Vol 33, p 485-508.

• Abstract
• Online appendix - Full set of estimation results and additional robustness checks

"Is there a debt service channel of monetary transmission?" (with Boris Hofmann), BIS Quarterly Review, 2017, December, p 23-37.

• Abstract

"Effectiveness and transmission of the ECB's balance sheet policies" (with Jef Boeckx and Maarten Dossche), International Journal of Central Banking, 2017, 13(1), p 297-333.

• Abstract
• Presentation

"Macroeconomic effects of disruptions in global food commodity markets: Evidence for the United States" (with Jasmien De Winne), Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2016, 47(2), p 183-286.

• Abstract
• Appendix - Planting and harvesting calendars to construct quarterly global food production index
• Appendix - Narrative global food commodity market shocks

"The U.S. dollar exchange rate and the demand for oil" (with Selien De Schryder) Energy Journal, 2015, 36(3), p 91-113.

• Abstract

"Effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy at the zero lower bound: a cross-country analysis"(with Leo Gambacorta and Boris Hofmann), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2014, 46(4), p 615-642.

• Abstract
• Presentation

"Time-varying effects of oil supply shocks on the U.S. economy" (with Christiane Baumeister), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2013, Vol 5(4), p 1-28.

• Abstract
• Not-for-publication on-line appendix
• Presentation

"Dissecting the Dynamics of the US Trade Balance in an Estimated Equilibrium Model" (with Punnoose Jacob), Journal of International Economics, 2013, Vol. 90(2), p 302-315.

• Abstract

"The role of time-varying price elasticities in accounting for volatility changes in the crude oil market" (with Christiane Baumeister), Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2013, Vol. 28(7), p 1087-1109

• Abstract
• Not-for-publication on-line appendix
• An older version circulated as "Sources of the volatility puzzle in the crude oil market"

"Time variation in U.S. wage dynamics" (with Boris Hofmann and Roland Straub), Journal of Monetary Economics, 2012, Vol. 59(8), p 769-783.

• Abstract
• Presentation

"Cross-country differences in the effects of oil shocks" (with Ine Van Robays), Energy Economics, 2012, Vol. 34(5), p 1532-1547.

• Abstract
• Presentation

"The relative importance of symmetric and asymmetric shocks: the case of United Kingdom and Euro area", Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2011, Vol. 73(1), p 101-118.

• Abstract
• An older version circulated as "The relative importance of symmetric and asymmetric shocks and the determination of the exchange rate"

"The economic consequences of oil shocks: differences across countries and time" (with Christiane Baumeister and Ine van Robays), In Fry, Jones and Kent (eds), Inflation in an era of relative price shocks, Reserve Bank of Australia, 2010, p 91-128.

• Abstract
• Presentation

"Oil and the Euro area economy" (with Ine Van Robays), Economic Policy, 2009, Vol. 24(Oct), p 603-651.

• Abstract
• Presentation

"Technology shocks and robust sign restrictions in a Euro area SVAR" (with Roland Straub), International Economic Review, 2009, Vol. 50(3), p 727-750.

• Abstract
• European Central Bank Working Paper No. 373 version (with more identified shocks)

"Business cycle fluctuations and excess sensitivity of private consumption" (with Lorenzo Pozzi), Economica, 2008, Vol. 75, p 514-523.

• Abstract
• An older version circulated as "Determinants of consumption smoothing"

"Is the exchange rate a shock absorber or source of shocks? New empirical evidence" (with Katie Farrant), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2006, Vol. 38, p 939-962.

• Abstract
• Presentation
• A slightly different Bank of England Working Paper No. 269 version titled "Accounting for the source of exchange rate movements: New evidence"

"The industry effects of monetary policy in the Euro area" (with Frank Smets), Economic Journal, 2005, Vol. 115(April), p 319-342.

• Abstract
• A slightly different European Central Bank Working Paper No. 165 version

"What caused the early millennium slowdown? Evidence based on vector autoregressions", Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2005, Vol. 20, p 185-207.

• Abstract
• An older CEPR Working Paper No. 4087 version, which includes a more extensive discussion of the methodology and estimation results for industrialized world aggregates
• A summary of the paper published in Eijffinger and Koedijk (eds), The Euro area as an economic entity, CEPR, 2004, p 1-10.

"The transmission of monetary policy in the Euro area: Are the effects different across countries?", Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2004, Vol. 66(3), p 285-308.

• Abstract

"Investment under monetary uncertainty: a panel data investigation" (with Andrew Hughes Hallett and Laura Piscitelli), Empirica, 2004, Vol. 31(2), p 137-162.

• Abstract

"The monetary transmission mechanism in the Euro area: more evidence from VAR analysis" (with Frank Smets), In Angeloni, Kashyap and Mojon (eds), Monetary policy transmission in the Euro area, Cambridge University Press, 2003, chapter 2, p 36-55.

• Abstract
• European Central Bank Working Paper No. 91 version

"A VAR description of the effects of monetary policy in the individual countries of the Euro area"(with Benoit Mojon), In Angeloni, Kashyap and Mojon (eds), Monetary policy transmission in the Euro area, Cambridge University Press, 2003, chapter 3, p 56-74.

• Abstract
• European Central Bank Working Paper No. 92 version

"Are the effects of monetary policy in the Euro area greater in recessions than in booms?" (with Frank Smets), In Mahadeva and Sinclair (eds), Monetary transmission in diverse economies, Cambridge University Press, 2002, p 28-48.

• Abstract
• European Central Bank Working Paper No. 52 version

"Monetary policy and long term interest rates in Germany", Economics Letters, 2002, Vol 77(2), October, p 271-278.

• Abstract

"The Taylor rule: A useful monetary policy benchmark for the Euro area?" (with Frank Smets), International Finance, 1999, Vol. 2(1), p 85-116.

• Abstract
• An older version "Uncertainty and the Taylor rule in a simple model of the Euro area economy", which also includes estimation results for monetary policy reaction functions

Other (working) papers

"Shocks to bank lending, risk-taking, securitization, and their role for U.S. business cycle fluctuations" (with Wolf Wagner)

"Bank lending shocks and the euro area business cycle", revise and resubmit at Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (but I never found the time to do the revisions)

• Abstract
• Presentation

"The effectiveness of unconventional monetary policies", Bank- en Financiewezen, 2014, 1, p 62-72.

• Presentation
• Paper was originally written for Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management GFI White Paper Series

"Macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policy in the Euro area", European Central Bank Working Paper No. 1230, July 2010

• Abstract
• Presentation
• CEPR Working Paper No. 8348 version (April 2011)

"Liquidity, inflation and asset prices in a time-varying framework for the Euro area" (with Christiane Baumeister and Eveline Durinck), National Bank of Belgium Working Paper No. 142, October 2008

• Abstract
• Presentation

"Putting the New Keynesian model to a test" (with Roland Straub), International Monetary Fund Working Paper 06/135, May 2006

• Abstract
• Presentation