My research focuses on applied macroeconomic topics. Most of my current research applies general equilibrium models to answer questions in:
Quantifying aggregate, spatial and distributional impacts of trade policies
Applied Energy Policy Analysis
Intertemporal consumption modelling (habit formation, reference dependence and present-bias models)
Environmental Policy Analysis
I am also working on labour economics topics, specifically estimations of the wage curve using micro-level data.
The impact of the new Northern Ireland protocol: can Northern Ireland enjoy the best of both worlds? with Gioele Figus (November 2021).
In: Regional Studies.
Abstract: From the 1 January 2021 the new Protocol on Northern Ireland (NI) regulates NI’s trade with the European Union (EU) and Great Britain (GB). These rules imply divergence between trade arrangements in NI and GB creating an unprecedented situation where trade frictions arise between two regions of the same country. In this paper we use a multi-sector economic model to capture the impact that potential non-tariff barriers and tariffs will have on trade in NI. Simulation results demonstrate that a weaker relation between GB and the EU will have a greater negative impact on the NI economy. However, this may be reduced by the ability of NI firms to substitute intermediate inputs from GB for EU imports.
How should governments respond to energy price crises? A horse-race between fiscal policies. with Gioele Figus (January 2024).
In: Energy Economics.
Abstract: This paper compares the welfare and distributional implications of fiscal policies aimed at reducing a sudden and significant increase in the price of energy. A dynamic computable general equilibrium model with households disaggregated by income groups is used to compare the effectiveness of five energy price-reducing fiscal policies. The policies are assessed under two financing options, pure government debt and a mix of debt and windfall taxation on energy companies. Results from simulations demonstrate that targeted demand-side policies are more effective at reducing overall energy-driven inflation and increasing welfare. Supply-side policies and mixed demand and supply policies achieve a smaller reduction in the consumer price index but are more expansionary. Financing the policies partly through windfall taxation does not impact the ranking of policies but it delivers better distributional outcomes and higher welfare. The results motivate the use of windfall taxation if governments face high interest rates on debt financing and/ or if households care sufficiently about the provision of public goods. The optimal policy is likely a mix of supply-side measures such as production tax reductions or general price subsidies and either targeted energy price subsidies or targeted income subsidies financed where possible through windfall taxation.
Should gains from trade be redistributed at the national or regional level? with Gioele Figus, Peter McGregor and Graeme Roy (this version: November 2025)
Abstract: There is a general concern that gains from trade liberalisation may lead to wider income and regional inequalities. This paper assesses the ability of policy makers to use national or regional taxation to restore pre-liberalisation levels of equality. Using a multi-regional general equilibrium trade model, we explore three tax policy options where redistributive income taxes are used to target national, regional or cross-region distributions. If national taxes on income are used to restore the pre-liberalisation national Gini coefficient, regional Gini coefficients remain above their pre-liberalisation levels in some regions. If regional taxes on income are used to restore the pre-liberalisation regional Gini coefficients, the national Gini coefficient may not fully return to its pre-liberalisation value and cross-region inequality may worsen. Cross-region national income tax redistributions reduce cross-region inequality but may result in greater income inequality within the regions and the nation. On their own we show that such policy actions cannot meet the objectives of tackling national, regional and cross-regional household income inequalities that flow from trade liberalisation. Ultimately, policymakers face a trade-off in balancing national, regional and cross-regional objectives.
Regional prediction bias in sub-national impact analysis with Gioele Figus and Aditya Maurya (this version November 2025).
Abstract: This paper develops a framework to define and measure two sources of bias in sub-national Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling: aggregation bias, from spatially aggregated data, and regional prediction bias, from naïve top-down disaggregation. Using the UK as a case study, we build dynamic CGE models at national, four-nation, and twelve-region levels and expose them to stylised and Monte Carlo trade shocks. Results show that top-down methods capture national impacts well as aggregation bias is small and declines over time. However they may misrepresent detailed regional impacts, with differences in predictions sometimes exceeding 100% and even reversing the sign of impacts.
The UK wage curve puzzle. Has the wage curve flattened since the 2008 financial crisis? (this version: November 2025).
Abstract: This paper demonstrates that the wage curve relationship has both weakened and flattened in the UK between 1992 and 2019. Using the combined British Household Panel Survey and Understanding Society data and Annual Population survey data, unemployment elasticities of wages range from -0.01 to -0.04 between 1992 and 2019 and flatten to values close to 0 or even positive in the 2010s. Neither discouraged workers nor underemployed workers are found to explain the flattening wage curve in contrast to evidence from the United States. A lower unemployment elasticity of wages in the UK implies larger output volatility and more detrimental impacts of negative trade shocks in the long run.
Rational, habit formation or reference-dependent consumption behaviour: What consumption theory should we apply to General Equilibrium models? (this version: November 2025).
Abstract: This paper derives the first computationally feasible, micro-founded and dynamic reference dependence consumption model within a Computable General Equilibrium framework. This contribution provides an alternative consumption method to the often criticised neoclassical assumptions and myopic assumptions used in the Computable General Equilibrium literature. More, this method nests the habit formation method popularised in the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium literature. Using this reference dependence method, it can be shown that consumption responses to adverse shocks will be hump-shaped as predicted by habit formation consumption models. The key qualitative difference between the habit formation and the reference dependence model is in the shape of the hump. This will depend on the degree of loss aversion.
Curves in Regional Labour Markets Revisited with Sam Grant, Stuart McIntyre and Graeme Roy (this version: November 2025).
Electrifying! How should Northern Ireland’s electrification be funded? with Kevin Connolly (this version: November 2025).
Newspaper articles:
Brexit and Scottish exports? A negative shock? with Gioele Figus, Peter McGregor and Graeme Roy (December 2023).
In: Centre for Inclusive Policy (CITP) blog.
New Brexit deal will be better for Northern Ireland’s economy than the protocol, research suggests with Gioele Figus (March 2023).
In: The Conversation.
Blogs:
The New Northern Ireland Protocol: is Northern Ireland stuck in the middle? with Gioele Figus (November 2021).
In: Fraser of Allander Institute blog.
The macroeconomic impacts of the new protocol on Northern Ireland and how they can be mitigated with Gioele Figus (December 2021).
In: LSE British Politics and Policy blog.
What are the economic implications of the Windsor Framework? with Gioele Figus and Graeme Roy (April 2023).
In: Centre for Inclusive Policy (CITP) blog.
Policy report contributions:
Fraser of Allander Institute: Scotland’s Budget Report 2018 (developed the FAI micro-simulation model and loan-repayment models).
FAI Economic Commentary, 2021 Q4 (this cites the work completed with Gioele Figus on the Northern Ireland protocol).