Gaston Gelos

Education:

• 1998 Ph.D. (Economics), Yale University

• 1994 "Diplom" (Economics), University of Bonn

• 1991-1992 Graduate coursework in Economics, University of California at Berkeley

Articles in peer-reviewed academic journals

·  “Negative Interest Rate Policies,” Annual Review of Economics (with L. Brandao-Marques, M. Casiraghi, and G. Kamber), forthcoming

·   “Has Higher Household Indebtedness Weakened Monetary Policy Transmission?” (with F. Grinberg, S. Khan, T. Mancini-Griffoli, M. Narita, and U. Rawat), International Journal of Central Banking, forthcoming

·    “Changes in the Global Investor Base and the Stability of Portfolio Flows to Emerging Markets” (with L. Brandao-Marques, H. Ichiue, and H. Oura), Journal of Banking and Finance, November 2022

·    “Capital Flows at Risk – Taming the Ebbs and Flows” (with L. Gornicka, R. Koepke, R. Sahay, and S. Sgherri), Journal of International Economics, January 2022

·    “Country Transparency and the Global Transmission of Financial Shocks,” (with L. Brandao-

Marques and N. Melgar), Journal of Banking and Finance, November 2018

·    “Inflation responses to commodity price shocks – how and why do countries differ?” (with Y.

Ustyugova), Journal of International Money and Finance, April 2017

·   “The Global Financial Crisis: Explaining Cross-Country Differences in the Output Impact,” (with

P. Berkmen, R. Rennhack, and J. Walsh), Journal of International Money and Finance, February 2012

·   “Sovereign Borrowing by Developing Countries: What Determines Market Access?” (with R.

Sahay and G. Sandleris), Journal of International Economics, March 2011

·    “Brazil's Long-Term Growth Performance: Trying to Explain the Puzzle,” (with R. Adrogué and

M. Cerisola), Journal of Economic Studies, October 2010

·   “Banking Spreads in Latin America,” Economic Inquiry, October 2009

·    “What Drives Inflation Expectations in Brazil? – An Empirical Analysis,” (with M. Cerisola), Applied Economics, May 2009

·   “When in Peril, Retrench – Testing the Portfolio Channel of Contagion” (with F. Broner and C.

     Reinhart), Journal of International Economics, March 2006

·    “Transparency and International Portfolio Holdings” (with S. Wei), The Journal of Finance, December

2005

·   “Would “Cold Turkey” Work in Turkey?” (with O. Celasun and A. Prati), IMF Staff Papers,

November 2004

·    “Obstacles to Disinflation: What is the Role of Fiscal Expectations?” (with O. Celasun and A. Prati), Economic Policy, October 2004

·    “Consolidation and Market Structure in Emerging Markets Banking Systems,“ (with J. Roldós), Emerging Markets Review, March 2004

·   “A Panic-Prone Pack? The Behavior of Emerging Market Mutual Funds,” (with E. Borensztein), IMF Staff Papers, April 2003

·   “Leaders and Followers: Emerging Market Fund Behavior During Tranquil and Turbulent Times,” (with E. Borensztein), Emerging Markets Review, March 2003

 ·  “Foreign Currency Debt in Emerging Markets: Firm-Level Evidence from Mexico”, Economics Letters, March 2003

·   “Devaluation Expectations and the Stock Market – A New Measure and an Application to Mexico

1994/95,” (with T. Becker and A. Richards), International Journal of Economics and Finance, July 2002

·    “Financial Liberalization, Credit Constraints, and Collateral: Investment in the Mexican Manufacturing Sector” (with A. Werner), Journal of Development Economics, February 2002

·    “Irreversibilities in Fixed Capital Adjustment: Evidence from Mexican and Colombian Plants,” (with A. Isgut), Economics Letters, December 2001

·    “Fixed Capital Adjustment - Is Latin America Different?” (with A. Isgut), Review of Economics

and Statistics, November 2001

·   “Financial Market Spillovers in Transition Economies,” (with R. Sahay), Economics of Transition, March 2001

·    “La Inversión Fija en México - Una Revisión Selectiva,” Gaceta de Economía, December 1999

Publications in books, conference volumes, and others

·    “Shocks and Capital Flows: Policy Responses in a Volatile World,” (editor, with R. Sahay), International Monetary Fund, forthcoming

·    “Negative Interest Rate Policies: Taking Stock of the Experience So Far," (with L. Brandao-Marques, M. Casiraghi, L. Kamber, and R. Meeks), CESifo Forum, November 2021

·    “Managing Economic Volatility in Latin America”, (editor, with A. Werner), International Monetary Fund, 2014

·    “Transparency Matters” (with L. Brandao and N. Melgar), Finance and Development, International Monetary Fund, December 2013

·    “International Mutual Funds, Capital Flow Volatility, and Contagion,” in: G. Caprio (ed.): “The Evidence and Impact of Financial Globalization, Vol. 3,” Elsevier, 2013

·    “When Commodity Prices Surge” (with Y. Ustyugova), Finance and Development, International Monetary Fund, December 2012

·    “Differential Impact” (with P. Berkmen, R. Rennhack, and J. P. Walsh), Finance and Development, International Monetary Fund, March 2010

·    “A Survey of Financial Linkages,” (with M. Cerisola, G. Bannister, and F. Valencia), in: (Mühleisen, M., S. Roache, and J. Zettelmeyer, eds: “Who’s Driving Whom? Analyzing External and Intra-Regional Linkages in the America,” International Monetary Fund, October 2008

·    “Macroeconomic Implications of Financial Dollarization,” (editor, with M. Piñón and A. López Mejía), IMF Occasional Paper 263, August 2008

·    “Contagion and the Behavior of International Equity Funds,” in: Karman, A., M. Frenkel, and B. Scholtens (eds.): “Sovereign Risk and Financial Crises,” Springer-Verlag, 2004

·    “Shocks to Balance Sheets and Emerging Market Crises,” IMF Research Bulletin, March 2003

·    “Are Foreign Investors in Emerging Market Economies A Panic-Prone Herd?” (with E. Borensztein), Finance and Development, International Monetary Fund, December 2001

·    "Financial Market Spillovers – How Different Are the Transition Economies?” (with R. Sahay), in: Forbes, K. and S. Claessens (eds.): “International Financial Contagion,” Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2001

Columns and blogs

·

· High debt can hinder the fight against inflation (w. L. Brandao-Marques, M. Casiraghi,  O. Harrison, and G. Kamber), VoxEU, July 2023

· Macroprudential policies are effective, with limited side effects – but open questions remain (with E. Nier, S. Martínez-Pería, and F. Valencia), VoxEu, April 2023

· How Africa Can Navigate Growing Monetary Policy Challenges (with T. Adrian and D. Hofman), IMF Blog, April 2022

· “The Evidence Is in on Negative Interest Rate Policies,” (with L. Brandao-Marques), IMF Blog, March 2021

· “COVID-19 in emerging markets: Escaping the monetary policy procyclicality trap” (with U. Rawat and H. Ye), VoxEu, August 2020

· “Leaning against the wind: An empirical cost-benefit analysis” (with. L. Brandao-Marques, M. Narita, and E. Nier), VoxEu, July 2020

· “Capital flows at risk: Taming the ebbs and flows” (with L. Gornicka, R. Koepke, R. Sahay, and S. Sgherri), VoxEu, February 2020

· “Unveiling the effects of macroprudential policies: The IMF’s new iMaPP database” (with A. Alter, H. Kang, M. Narita, and E. Nier), VoxEu, April 2019

· “Household indebtedness did not weaken US monetary transmission post-crisis” (with F. Grinberg, T. Mancini-Griffoli, S. Khan, M. Narita, and U. Rawat), VoxEu, February 2019

· “The Rise in Nonbank Finance and Monetary Policy Transmission” (with L. Brandao-Marques), VoxEu,  December 2017

·    “Aging Japan Puts a Strain on the Financial System” (with S. Muñoz), IMF Blog, August 2017

·    “How an Extended Period of Low Growth Could Reshape the Financial Industry,” (with J. Surti), IMF Blog,  April 2017

· “With Global Financial Markets, How Much Control Do Countries Have Over Economic Policies?,” (with S. Elekdag), IMF Blog, April 2017

· “The Growing Importance of Financial Spillovers from Emerging Market Economies” (with J. Surti), Vox, August 2016

· “Corporate Governance and Financial Stability in Emerging Markets” (with S. Elekdag), VoxEu, Nov 2016

· “Resilience of Market Liquidity” (with L. Brandao-Marques), VoxEu,  January 2016

· “Asset Management and Financial Stability” (with H. Oura), VoxEu, July 2015

· “Global Banks Turning more Local” (with F. Lambert), VoxEu, May 2015

 ·   “Transparency and the Global Transmission of Financial Shocks” (with L. Brandao -Marques and N. Melgar), Econbrowser, December 2014

· “Good Governance Curbs Excessive Bank Risks” (with L. Brandao-Marques and E. Oppers), 

http://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2014/10/16/good-governance-curbs-excessive-bank-risks/, October2014

· “The Growth of Shadow Banking” (with N. Valckx), 

http://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2014/10/03/the-growth-of-shadow-banking/, October 2014

· “New-Breed Global Investors and Emerging-Market Financial Stability,” (with H. Oura), VoxEu, August 2014

·  “Inflation Responses to Commodity Price Shocks – how and why do countries differ” (with Y.

  Ustyugova), Econbrowser, December 2012

· “The global crisis – why were some countries hit harder?” (with P. Berkmen, R. Rennhack, and J.

  Walsh), VoxEu, March 2010

· “Transparenz schützt Schwellenländer,” Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, July 26, 2009

Other papers

·   “Is High Debt Constraining Monetary Policy?,” (with L. Brandao-Marques, M. Casiraghi, G. Kamber, and O. Harrison), IMF Working Paper 23/143,

·   “Macroprudential Policy Effects: Evidence and Open Questions,” (with N. Biljanovska, S. Chen, E. Nier, S. Martínez-Peria, and F. Valencia), IMF Departmental Paper, 2023

·   “Exchange-Rate Swings and Foreign Currency Intervention,” (with A. Filardo and T. McGregor), IMF Working Paper 22/158, 2022

·    “Negative Interest Rates: Taking Stock of the Experience So Far” (with L. Brandao-Marques, M. Casiraghi, G. Kamber, and R. Meeks), IMF Departmental Paper, 2021

·    “COVID-19 Shock and Multilateral Aspects of Foreign Exchange Intervention and Capital Flow Management Policies,” (with L. Brandao Marques, C. Erceg, L. Gornicka, A. Kokenyne, and G. Pasricha), COVD-19 Special Notes, IMF, 2020

·    “Leaning Against the Wind: A Cost-Benefit Analysis for an Integrated Policy Framework” (with L. Brandao-Marques, M. Narita, and E. Nier), IMF Working Paper 20/123, 2020

·   “Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies” (with. L. Brandao-Marques, T. Harjes, R. Sahay, and J. Xue), IMF Working Paper 20/35, 2020 (R&R, JMCB)

·    “Digging Deeper – Evidence on the Effects of Macroprudential Policies from a New Database” (with Z. Alam, A. Alter, J. Eiseman, H. Kang, M. Narita, E. Nier, and N. Wang), IMF Working Paper 19/66, 2019 

·    “Can Countries Manage Their Financial Conditions Amid Globalization?” (with N. Arregui, S.

      Elekdag, R. Lafarguette, and D. Seneviratne), IMF Working Paper 18/15, 2018

·    “Commodity Prices – Their Impact on Inflation in Uruguay” (with R. Babihuga), in: Uruguay: Selected Issues, IMF Staff Country Report, 2008

·    “Post-Crisis Credit: Facts, Lessons, and Prospects” (with J. Canales-Kriljenko), in: Uruguay: Selected Issues, IMF Staff Country Report, 2006

·    “Transparency and International Investor Behavior” (with S. Wei), NBER Working Paper No. 9260 and IMF Working Paper 02/174, 2002

·   “The Asset Allocation of Emerging Market Mutual Funds,” (with P. Disyatat), IMF Working Paper 01/111, 2001

·    “Does Bulgaria Suffer from a Competitiveness Problem? A Look at Real Exchange Rate Indicators and Export Performance,” (with A. Banerji), in Bulgaria: Selected Issues,” IMF Staff Country Report 00/54, 2000

·    “Why is Private Sector Credit so Low in Bulgaria?” (with T. Feyzioğlu), in Bulgaria: Selected Issues, IMF Staff Country Report 00/54, 2000

·    “Investment Efficiency, Human Capital and Migration: A Productivity Analysis of the Jordanian

      Economy,”  World Bank Regional Discussion Paper No.14, 1995